Monte Carlo for calculating the st.dev of an all skill NHL league

montecarlo.py

import csv, random, math

# STuff do once

schedule = []
n = 10000
avgsd = 0.0
pskill = 24 #percent skill

# store the schedule
with open('schedule.csv', 'rU') as csvfile:
	spamreader = csv.reader(csvfile, delimiter=',', quotechar='|')
	for row in spamreader:
		schedule.append(row)

strengths = range(1,31)

for i in range(n):
	# stuff do on each loop

	wins = [0]*30

	startScore = 0 # strength, and score

	teams = {'PITTSBURGH' : startScore, 'PHILADELPHIA' : startScore, 'OTTAWA' : startScore, 'WINNIPEG' : startScore, 'CHICAGO' : startScore,
				'LOS ANGELES' : startScore, 'BOSTON' : startScore, 'NY RANGERS' : startScore, 'TORONTO' : startScore, 'MONTREAL' : startScore,
				'NEW JERSEY' : startScore, 'NY ISLANDERS' : startScore, 'TAMPA BAY' : startScore, 'WASHINGTON' : startScore, 'FLORIDA' : startScore,
				'CAROLINA' : startScore, 'ST. LOUIS' : startScore, 'DETROIT' : startScore, 'COLUMBUS' : startScore, 'NASHVILLE' : startScore,
				'DALLAS' : startScore, 'PHOENIX' : startScore, 'MINNESOTA' : startScore, 'COLORADO' : startScore, 'ANAHEIM' : startScore, 
				'VANCOUVER' : startScore, 'BUFFALO' : startScore, 'SAN JOSE' : startScore, 'CALGARY' : startScore, 'EDMONTON' : startScore}

	# assign strengths randomly
	random.shuffle(strengths)

	sIndex = 0
	for t in teams:
		teams[t] = strengths[sIndex]
		sIndex += 1

	# "compete" the teams
	for game in schedule:
		if random.randint(1,100) <= (100-pskill):
			if random.randint(1,2) == 1:
				wins[teams[game[0]]-1] += 1
			else:
				wins[teams[game[1]]-1] += 1
		else:
			if teams[game[0]] < teams[game[1]]:
				wins[teams[game[0]]-1] += 1
			else:
				wins[teams[game[1]]-1] += 1

	wins = [x/82.0 for x in wins]
	mean = sum(wins, 0.0) / len(wins)
	d = [ (i - mean) ** 2 for i in wins]
	std_dev = math.sqrt(sum(d) / len(d))

	avgsd += std_dev
	print std_dev

print "Average St.Dev: %s" % (avgsd/n)
print "Mean: %s" % (mean)