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Created February 27, 2012 03:53
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Modal Thinking
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lectureNotes.md

Using and Understanding Models

  1. Understand Patterns
  2. Predict Points
  3. Produce Bounds
  • Range of possibilities
  1. Retrodiction
  • What was the past like?
  1. Predict Other Stuff
  • Model showed another planet present even though it couldn't be seen
  1. Inform data collections
  • What data should I be collecting?
  1. Estimate Hidden Parameters
  • What are the hidden parameters in the model?
  1. Calibrate

Using Models to Decide, Stratigize, and Design

  1. Realtime Decision Aids
  • Monty Hall Problem
  1. Comparative Statics
  • What is likely to happen given event
  • Economic supply/demand model
  1. Counterfactuals
  • What would have happened?
  • Examine what may have happened without the Job's Stimulas Bill
  1. Identify and Rank Levers
  • Lots of choices, what is the best?
  1. Experimental Design
  • Design experiments
  1. Institutional Design
  • Should there be a market or democracy?
  • Mount Righter Diagram (incorrect spelling)
  1. Help Choose Among Policies and Institutions
  • What policy should I choose?
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