Past NPVIC Attempts

past_npvic.R

library(tidyverse)
library(janitor)
library(rvest)

npvic_wiki <- read_html("https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact")

enacted <- npvic_wiki %>% 
  html_node("table.wikitable:nth-child(71)") %>% 
  html_table() %>% 
  as_tibble(.name_repair = make_clean_names) %>% 
  rename(evs = current_electoralvotes_ev) %>% 
  filter(no %>% str_detect("^\\d")) %>%
  mutate(
    date_adopted = parse_date(date_adopted, "%b %d, %Y"),
    method_of_adoption = str_remove(method_of_adoption, "\\[[^\\)]+\\]"),
    no = parse_number(no),
    evs = parse_number(evs) 
  )

pli <- read_csv(
  "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fivethirtyeight/data/master/partisan-lean/fivethirtyeight_partisan_lean_STATES.csv"
)

past_attempts <- npvic_wiki %>% 
  html_node("table.wikitable:nth-child(85)") %>% 
  html_table(fill = TRUE) %>% 
  as_tibble(.name_repair = make_clean_names) %>% 
  rename(evs = e_vs) %>% 
  left_join(pli, by = "state") %>%
  mutate(bill = str_remove(bill, "\\[[^\\)]+\\]")) %>%
  mutate(session = as.numeric(str_remove_all(session, "–(.*)"))) %>% 
  filter(outcome != "Law") %>%
  select(-outcome) %>% 
  separate(
    col = pvi_538,
    into = c("party", "lean"),
    remove = TRUE,
    sep = "\\+",
    convert = TRUE
  ) %>%
  mutate(lean = if_else(
    condition = party == "D", 
    true = (lean * -1L), 
    false = lean)
  ) %>% 
  filter(!state %in% enacted$jurisdiction) %>% 
  mutate(
    state = state.abb[match(state, state.name)],
    evs = parse_number(evs),
    lower_house = na_if(lower_house, "—"),
    upper_house = na_if(upper_house, "—"),
    executive   = na_if(executive, "—"),
    lower_house = str_detect(lower_house, "Passed"),
    upper_house = str_detect(upper_house, "Passed"),
  )

past_attempts %>% 
  knitr::kable()

past_attempts %>% 
  select(state, evs, lean) %>% 
  distinct() %>% 
  filter(lean < 0) %>% 
  pull(evs) %>%
  sum() %>% 
  magrittr::add(sum(enacted$evs))

past_attempts %>% 
  group_by(state, evs, lean) %>% 
  count() %>% 
  ggplot(mapping = aes(x = lean, y = evs)) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 0) +
  geom_label(mapping = aes(label = state, fill = lean, size = n)) +
  scale_fill_gradient(low = "blue", high = "red", guide = FALSE) +
  scale_size_continuous(range = c(4, 8)) +
  labs(
    title = "States with Failed NPVIC Legislation Attempts",
    subtitle = "With FiveThirtyEight Partisan Lean",
    caption = "Source: Wikipedia & FiveThirtyEight",
    size = "Attempts"
    )