ハトクラ第三ターン産出コイン量分布 〜六都市同盟編〜

hatokura-third-turn.rb

def deck_from_spec(spec)
  deck = []
  spec.each do |name, count|
    count.times do
      deck << name
    end
  end
  deck
end

def coin(name, has_damaid)
  case name
  when :farm
    1
  when :city
    2
  when :damaid
    0
  when :independent_city
    4
  when :yamori
    1 + (has_damaid ? 1 : 0)
  when :silver
    1
  when :lamp
    3
  when :big_farm
    3
  when :fairy
    0
  end
end

class Array
  def discard(name)
    delete_at(find_index(name))
  end
end

module Enumerable
  def sum()
    inject(:+)
  end
end

def calc(n, spec)
  deck = deck_from_spec(spec)
  result = {}
  n.times do
    library = deck.shuffle
    hand = library.shift(5)
    has_damaid = hand.include?(:damaid)
    has_silver = hand.include?(:silver)
    has_independent_city = hand.include?(:independent_city)
    has_fairy = hand.include?(:fairy)
    if has_silver and not has_independent_city
      hand.discard(:silver)
      hand << library.shift
    end
    if has_fairy and has_damaid
      hand.discard(:fairy)
      hand.discard(:damaid)
      hand << library.shift
      hand << library.shift
    end
    if has_fairy and not has_damaid and not has_independent_city
      hand.discard(:fairy)
      hand.discard(:farm)
      hand << library.shift
      hand << library.shift
    end
    gain = hand.map {|name| coin(name, has_damaid)}.sum()
    result[gain] ||= 0
    result[gain] += 1
  end
  result
end

def pp_one(coin, prob, max_count_width, count, total_count)
  puts "Coin %2s: %5.2f%% (%*d/%d)\n" % [coin, prob * 100, max_count_width, count, total_count]
end

def pp(stat_table)
  total_count = stat_table.values.sum()
  max_count_width = stat_table.values.map {|coin| coin.to_s.length}.max()
  stat_table.keys.sort.each do |coin|
    count = stat_table[coin]
    prob = count / total_count.to_f
    pp_one(coin, prob, max_count_width, count, total_count)
  end

  count = stat_table.keys.find_all {|coin| 6 <= coin}.map {|coin| stat_table[coin]}.sum()
  prob = count / total_count.to_f
  pp_one('6+', prob, max_count_width, count, total_count)
end

n = 10000000  # 30 sec
# n = 1000000  # 3 sec
# n = 100

# pp calc(n, {farm: 7, damaid: 3, city: 2})
# 都市-都市スタート
# Coin  2:  2.65% ( 264816/10000000)
# Coin  3: 15.02% (1501911/10000000)
# Coin  4: 29.28% (2927977/10000000)
# Coin  5: 31.83% (3183430/10000000)
# Coin  6: 16.80% (1679797/10000000)
# Coin  7:  4.42% ( 442069/10000000)
# Coin 6+: 21.22% (2121866/10000000)

# pp calc(n, {farm: 7, damaid: 3, city: 1, lamp: 1})
# 都市-魔法のランプor金貸しスタート
# Coin  2:  2.66% ( 265733/10000000)
# Coin  3: 14.16% (1415905/10000000)
# Coin  4: 22.09% (2208671/10000000)
# Coin  5: 23.98% (2398154/10000000)
# Coin  6: 20.33% (2033182/10000000)
# Coin  7: 12.35% (1235023/10000000)
# Coin  8:  4.43% ( 443332/10000000)
# Coin 6+: 37.12% (3711537/10000000)

# pp calc(n, {farm: 7, damaid: 3, independent_city: 1})
# 独立都市-漁村or早馬or伝令or敢えて何も買わないスタート(擁立選択時)
# Coin  2:  4.55% ( 454658/10000000)
# Coin  3: 22.72% (2271896/10000000)
# Coin  4: 22.75% (2275113/10000000)
# Coin  5:  6.07% ( 606731/10000000)
# Coin  6: 13.61% (1361404/10000000)
# Coin  7: 22.73% (2272685/10000000)
# Coin  8:  7.58% ( 757513/10000000)
# Coin 6+: 43.92% (4391602/10000000)

# pp calc(n, {farm: 7 + 1, damaid: 3, independent_city: 1})
# 独立都市-農村or何か1コイン出るカードスタート(擁立選択時)
# Coin  2:  3.54% ( 354306/10000000)
# Coin  3: 21.23% (2122757/10000000)
# Coin  4: 26.50% (2649665/10000000)
# Coin  5:  8.09% ( 808537/10000000)
# Coin  6: 10.60% (1059765/10000000)
# Coin  7: 21.20% (2120126/10000000)
# Coin  8:  8.85% ( 884844/10000000)
# Coin 6+: 40.65% (4064735/10000000)

# pp calc(n, {farm: 7 + 2, damaid: 3, independent_city: 1})
# 独立都市-農村&農村スタート(擁立選択時)
# Coin  2:  2.80% ( 279869/10000000)
# Coin  3: 19.57% (1957404/10000000)
# Coin  4: 29.36% (2935568/10000000)
# Coin  5: 10.49% (1048618/10000000)
# Coin  6:  8.38% ( 837842/10000000)
# Coin  7: 19.61% (1960922/10000000)
# Coin  8:  9.80% ( 979777/10000000)
# Coin 6+: 37.79% (3778541/10000000)

# pp calc(n, {farm: 7, damaid: 3, independent_city: 1, yamori: 1})
# 独立都市-家守の精霊スタート(擁立選択時)
# Coin  2:  2.65% ( 264561/10000000)
# Coin  3: 14.15% (1414739/10000000)
# Coin  4: 21.23% (2123125/10000000)
# Coin  5: 21.21% (2121028/10000000)
# Coin  6:  8.08% ( 807975/10000000)
# Coin  7: 15.89% (1588856/10000000)
# Coin  8: 16.80% (1679716/10000000)
# Coin 6+: 40.77% (4076547/10000000)

# pp calc(n, {farm: 7, damaid: 3, independent_city: 1, silver: 1})
# 独立都市-幸運の銀貨スタート(手札に独立都市が無いなら幸運の銀貨でドローを選択)(擁立選択時)
# Coin  2:  4.55% ( 455285/10000000)
# Coin  3: 22.72% (2272362/10000000)
# Coin  4: 22.74% (2273710/10000000)
# Coin  5:  5.68% ( 567933/10000000)
# Coin  6: 11.75% (1174891/10000000)
# Coin  7: 23.09% (2309399/10000000)
# Coin  8:  9.46% ( 946420/10000000)
# Coin 6+: 44.31% (4430710/10000000)

# pp calc(n, {farm: 7 + 1, damaid: 3, independent_city: 1, fairy: 1})
# 独立都市-春風の妖精スタート(擁立選択時)
# * 手札に見習い侍女があれば交換する(286,8489/1000,0000)
# * 手札に独立都市も見習い侍女もなければ農村を交換する(54,3776/1000,0000)
# Coin  2:  2.18% ( 217837/10000000)
# Coin  3: 15.96% (1595718/10000000)
# Coin  4: 26.81% (2681089/10000000)
# Coin  5: 10.82% (1082193/10000000)
# Coin  6:  7.69% ( 768664/10000000)
# Coin  7: 24.50% (2450261/10000000)
# Coin  8: 12.04% (1204238/10000000)
# Coin 6+: 44.23% (4423163/10000000)

# pp calc(n, {farm: 7 + 3, damaid: 3, big_farm: 1, city: 1})
# 大農園-都市スタート
# Coin  2:  1.51% ( 150517/10000000)
# Coin  3: 12.33% (1232560/10000000)
# Coin  4: 25.80% (2579769/10000000)
# Coin  5: 24.92% (2492287/10000000)
# Coin  6: 19.98% (1997731/10000000)
# Coin  7: 11.47% (1146769/10000000)
# Coin  8:  4.00% ( 400367/10000000)
# Coin 6+: 35.45% (3544867/10000000)

result.md

コイン	都市-都市	大農園-都市	都市-魔法のランプ	独立都市-漁村	独立都市-農村	独立都市-幸運の銀貨	独立都市-農村x2	独立都市-春風の妖精	独立都市-家守の精霊
2	2.65%	1.51%	2.66%	4.55%	3.54%	4.55%	2.80%	2.18%	2.65%
3	15.02%	12.33%	14.16%	22.72%	21.23%	22.72%	19.57%	15.96%	14.15%
4	29.28%	25.80%	22.09%	22.75%	26.50%	22.74%	29.36%	26.81%	21.23%
5	31.83%	24.92%	23.98%	6.07%	8.09%	5.68%	10.49%	10.82%	21.21%
6	16.80%	19.98%	20.33%	13.61%	10.60%	11.75%	8.38%	7.69%	8.08%
7	4.42%	11.47%	12.35%	22.73%	21.20%	23.09%	19.61%	24.50%	15.89%
8	--.--%	4.00%	4.43%	7.58%	8.85%	9.46%	9.80%	12.04%	16.80%
6+	21.22%	35.45%	37.12%	43.92%	40.65%	44.31%	37.79%	44.23%	40.77%