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@kenwebb
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Bayesian inference 2
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<!--Xholon Workbook http://www.primordion.com/Xholon/gwt/ MIT License, Copyright (C) Ken Webb, Tue May 06 2014 11:36:30 GMT-0400 (EDT)-->
<XholonWorkbook>
<Notes><![CDATA[
Xholon
------
Title: Bayesian inference 2
Description:
Url: http://www.primordion.com/Xholon/gwt/
InternalName: 362f506e4b0e5e057ab7
Keywords:
My Notes
--------
This is associated with XholonWorkbook ceb4083319ebfa4a7bd0
The present workbook implements the "Making a prediction" example in:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bayesian_inference&oldid=605608761
`An archaeologist is working at a site thought to be from the medieval period, between the 11th century to the 16th century. However, it is uncertain exactly when in this period the site was inhabited. Fragments of pottery are found, some of which are glazed and some of which are decorated. It is expected that if the site were inhabited during the early medieval period, then 1% of the pottery would be glazed and 50% of its area decorated, whereas if it had been inhabited in the late medieval period then 81% would be glazed and 5% of its area decorated. How confident can the archaeologist be in the date of inhabitation as fragments are unearthed?`
]]></Notes>
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