komuw/kenya_electricity_power.py

## kenya_electricity_power.py
# These statistics, figures and projections are back of the envelope
# see; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back-of-the-envelope_calculation.
# Do not rely on them for serious matters.
# But they should mostly be relatively accurate.

import math

# According to EPRA(Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority)
# See: https://www.epra.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ABRIDGED-KPLC-TARIFF-2023.pdf
peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2020 = 1880  # megawatt. This was in july 2020
peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022 = 2150  # megawatt. December 2022
# Thus
number_of_months_in_interval = 29
demand_growth_per_month = (
    peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022 - peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2020
) / number_of_months_in_interval

demand_growth_per_month = math.ceil(demand_growth_per_month)
# growth in megawatt. Here we have made assumption that growth is linear and not compound, etc.
assert demand_growth_per_month == 10  # MW

# According to Kenya power
# See; https://twitter.com/sammyjamar/status/1734137763937620149
available_capacity_in_year_2022 = 2235  # megawatt. December 2022
reserve_margin_in_2022 = (
    (available_capacity_in_year_2022 - peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022)
    / available_capacity_in_year_2022
) * 100
reserve_margin_in_2022 = math.ceil(reserve_margin_in_2022)
assert reserve_margin_in_2022 == 4  # percent.


# Nuclear plant is expected to be commisioned in year 2035(the first phase).
# See: https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-to-build-nuclear-power-plant-from-2027-4380566
# Let's make the assumption that all the 1000MW will be available in year 2035.
nuclear_capacity_in_year_2035 = 1000  # MW
available_capacity_in_year_2035 = available_capacity_in_year_2022 + nuclear_capacity_in_year_2035
assert available_capacity_in_year_2035 == 3235  # MW

months_between_2022_to_2035 = (2035 - 2022) * 12
assert months_between_2022_to_2035 == 156  # months
peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035 = peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022 + (
    months_between_2022_to_2035 * demand_growth_per_month
)
assert peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035 == 3710  # MW


reserve_margin_in_2035 = (
    (available_capacity_in_year_2035 - peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035)
    / available_capacity_in_year_2035
) * 100
reserve_margin_in_2035 = math.ceil(reserve_margin_in_2035)
assert reserve_margin_in_2035 == -14  # NEGATIVE. percent


# The acceptable reserve margin is at least 15%
# See; https://energyknowledgebase.com/topics/reserve-margin.asp
# South Africa for instance had a negative(percent) reserve margin in march 2023
# https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/486595-economists-warn-risk-of-total-grid-collapse-is-higher-eskom-denies-it.html

# So how much more megawatts do we need to bring on to the grid by 2035 to be within acceptable reserve margins?
# ie, How big or How many new power plants do we need to bring up.
# The equation is;
# 15 = ((x- peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035)/x) * 100  # Find x?
target_reserve_margin_in_year_2035 = 15  # percent
needed_capacity_in_year_2035 = (100 * peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035) / (
    100 - target_reserve_margin_in_year_2035
)
needed_capacity_in_year_2035 = math.ceil(needed_capacity_in_year_2035)
assert needed_capacity_in_year_2035 == 4365  # megawatt

# Thus besides the nuclear plant's 1000MW, we will need an extra;
extra_power_needed = (
    needed_capacity_in_year_2035 - available_capacity_in_year_2022 - nuclear_capacity_in_year_2035
)
assert extra_power_needed == 1130  # MW
	# These statistics, figures and projections are back of the envelope
	# see; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back-of-the-envelope_calculation.
	# Do not rely on them for serious matters.
	# But they should mostly be relatively accurate.

	import math

	# According to EPRA(Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority)
	# See: https://www.epra.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ABRIDGED-KPLC-TARIFF-2023.pdf
	peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2020 = 1880 # megawatt. This was in july 2020
	peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022 = 2150 # megawatt. December 2022
	# Thus
	number_of_months_in_interval = 29
	demand_growth_per_month = (
	peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022 - peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2020
	) / number_of_months_in_interval

	demand_growth_per_month = math.ceil(demand_growth_per_month)
	# growth in megawatt. Here we have made assumption that growth is linear and not compound, etc.
	assert demand_growth_per_month == 10 # MW

	# According to Kenya power
	# See; https://twitter.com/sammyjamar/status/1734137763937620149
	available_capacity_in_year_2022 = 2235 # megawatt. December 2022
	reserve_margin_in_2022 = (
	(available_capacity_in_year_2022 - peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022)
	/ available_capacity_in_year_2022
	) * 100
	reserve_margin_in_2022 = math.ceil(reserve_margin_in_2022)
	assert reserve_margin_in_2022 == 4 # percent.


	# Nuclear plant is expected to be commisioned in year 2035(the first phase).
	# See: https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-to-build-nuclear-power-plant-from-2027-4380566
	# Let's make the assumption that all the 1000MW will be available in year 2035.
	nuclear_capacity_in_year_2035 = 1000 # MW
	available_capacity_in_year_2035 = available_capacity_in_year_2022 + nuclear_capacity_in_year_2035
	assert available_capacity_in_year_2035 == 3235 # MW

	months_between_2022_to_2035 = (2035 - 2022) * 12
	assert months_between_2022_to_2035 == 156 # months
	peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035 = peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022 + (
	months_between_2022_to_2035 * demand_growth_per_month
	)
	assert peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035 == 3710 # MW


	reserve_margin_in_2035 = (
	(available_capacity_in_year_2035 - peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035)
	/ available_capacity_in_year_2035
	) * 100
	reserve_margin_in_2035 = math.ceil(reserve_margin_in_2035)
	assert reserve_margin_in_2035 == -14 # NEGATIVE. percent


	# The acceptable reserve margin is at least 15%
	# See; https://energyknowledgebase.com/topics/reserve-margin.asp
	# South Africa for instance had a negative(percent) reserve margin in march 2023
	# https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/486595-economists-warn-risk-of-total-grid-collapse-is-higher-eskom-denies-it.html

	# So how much more megawatts do we need to bring on to the grid by 2035 to be within acceptable reserve margins?
	# ie, How big or How many new power plants do we need to bring up.
	# The equation is;
	# 15 = ((x- peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035)/x) * 100 # Find x?
	target_reserve_margin_in_year_2035 = 15 # percent
	needed_capacity_in_year_2035 = (100 * peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035) / (
	100 - target_reserve_margin_in_year_2035
	)
	needed_capacity_in_year_2035 = math.ceil(needed_capacity_in_year_2035)
	assert needed_capacity_in_year_2035 == 4365 # megawatt

	# Thus besides the nuclear plant's 1000MW, we will need an extra;
	extra_power_needed = (
	needed_capacity_in_year_2035 - available_capacity_in_year_2022 - nuclear_capacity_in_year_2035
	)
	assert extra_power_needed == 1130 # MW