Created
August 8, 2013 11:22
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import sys | |
from numpy import * | |
from numpy.random import * | |
from matplotlib.pyplot import * | |
from scipy.stats import * | |
p17 = .05 | |
p18 = .03 | |
# 17, 18, any other state | |
pval = array([p17, p18, 1. - p17 - p18]) | |
vals = array([17, 18, 0]) | |
def main(argv): | |
lengths = range(5, 251, 10) | |
probs = [] | |
for T in lengths: | |
counter = 0 | |
repetitions = 2000 | |
for _ in range(repetitions): | |
past = 0 | |
for t in range(T): | |
# draw current state | |
current = vals[multinomial(1, pval) > .5] | |
if current == 18: | |
if past == 17: | |
# 18, 17, 18 detected | |
counter += 1 | |
break | |
else: | |
# 18 detected | |
past = 18 | |
elif current == 17 and past == 18: | |
# 18, 17 detected | |
past = 17 | |
probs.append(counter / float(repetitions)) | |
ion() | |
figure(figsize=(6, 6)) | |
plot(lengths, probs, linewidth=2) | |
xlabel('Length of the sequence (T)') | |
ylabel('Probability of subsequence') | |
raw_input() | |
return 0 | |
if __name__ == '__main__': | |
sys.exit(main(sys.argv)) |
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