Visualization of Broken Security Levels over Time

broken-security-levels.py

import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns
from io import StringIO
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# source: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/RSA_Factoring_Challenge
rsa_data: str = """
year;bits
1991;330
1992;364
1993;397
1994;426
1996;430
1999;463
2004;496
1999;512
2003;530
2009;563
2003;576
2010;596
2010;629
2005;640
2005;663
2013;696
2012;704
2016;729
2018;762
2020;768
2009;768
2019;795
2020;829
"""


# based on the above data
def linear_regression_rsa(x: int):
    return 15.23 * x - 29956


# based loosely on https://www.etsi.org/images/files/ETSIWhitePapers/QuantumSafeWhitepaper.pdf, section 2.2
# disclaimer: the resulting values are only for illustrative purposes
def pqc_speculation(x: int):
    assert x in range(2020, 2030)
    result = 810
    yearly_increase = 16
    exp_factor = 1.5
    for i in range(2020, x):
        result += yearly_increase
        yearly_increase *= exp_factor
    return result


if __name__ == '__main__':
    rsa_df = pd.read_csv(StringIO(rsa_data), sep=';')

    regression_range = range(2020, 2030)
    reg_df = pd.DataFrame({'year': regression_range, 'bits': [linear_regression_rsa(x) for x in regression_range]})
    pqc_df = pd.DataFrame({'year': regression_range, 'bits': [pqc_speculation(x) for x in regression_range]})

    fig, plot = plt.subplots(figsize=(6, 6))
    sns.regplot(data=rsa_df, ax=plot, x='year', y='bits', marker='x', ci=None)
    sns.lineplot(data=reg_df, ax=plot, x='year', y='bits', color='dodgerblue', linestyle='--')
    sns.lineplot(data=pqc_df, ax=plot, x='year', y='bits', color='orange', linestyle='--', zorder=1)

    subplot = plot.axes
    subplot.set_xlabel('')
    subplot.set_xticks([1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030])
    subplot.set_ylabel('')
    subplot.set_yscale('log', base=2)
    subplot.set_yticks([512, 1024, 2048])
    subplot.set_yticklabels(['RSA-512', 'RSA-1024', 'RSA-2048'])

    for y in [512, 1024, 2048]:
        plot.axhline(y, linewidth=0.5, color='lightgray', zorder=0)

    plt.title('Broken Security Levels over Time', loc='left', y=1.05, fontsize=16)
    plt.legend(labels=['solved RSA challenges', 'linear regression', 'projected continuation', 'quantum threat'])

    fig.savefig('out.png', bbox_inches='tight', transparent=True)