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Avoiding Decision-Making Pitfalls: A Taxonomy of 25 Common Fallacies and How to Recognize Them (by ChatGPT)
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Cognitive biases: | |
Confirmation bias: The tendency to seek out and interpret information in a way that confirms one's existing beliefs. Example: A person who believes that vaccines are dangerous only seeks out and pays attention to information that supports this belief, while ignoring information that contradicts it. | |
Sunk cost fallacy: The tendency to continue investing resources into a decision because of the resources that have already been invested. Example: A person continues to work on a project they know is failing because they have already invested so much time and money into it. | |
Availability heuristic: The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events that are easily brought to mind. Example: A person who recently heard about a plane crash is more likely to believe that plane crashes are more common than car accidents. | |
Anchoring bias: The tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making decisions. Example: A person who is looking to buy a used car is more likely to accept a higher price for the car after being shown a more expensive car first. | |
Illusion of control: The belief that one has more control over a situation than is actually the case. Example: A person who believes that they have control over the outcome of a lottery, so they keep buying lottery tickets even though the odds of winning are very low. | |
Logical fallacies: | |
Ad hominem fallacy: Attacking the person rather than the argument. Example: Instead of addressing the points made by a political opponent, a person attacks their opponent's character. | |
False dilemma: Presenting only two options when there are actually more. Example: Saying "Either you're with us or against us" when there are more than two options available. | |
Straw man fallacy: Misrepresenting an opponent's argument in order to make it easier to attack. Example: A person argues that their opponent's position is that "all immigrants are criminals," when their opponent's actual position is that "some immigrants may commit crimes." | |
False cause: Assuming that a correlation between two events means that one event causes the other. Example: A person believes that eating chicken will cause them to become sick because they ate chicken and then became sick the next day. | |
Slipper slope: Assuming that a small change will lead to a chain of events that will ultimately lead to an undesirable outcome. Example: A person argues that if gay marriage is allowed, it will lead to the acceptance of polygamy, bestiality, and other forms of non-traditional relationships. | |
Emotional fallacies: | |
Fear of missing out (FOMO): Making decisions based on the fear of missing out on an opportunity. Example: A person buys a stock because they fear that they will miss out on the potential gains, even though they have no knowledge of the company. | |
Desire for revenge: Making decisions based on a desire for revenge. Example: A person gets into a physical fight with someone because they feel wronged and they want to get revenge. | |
Sunk-feelings fallacy: Making decisions based on regret or disappointment over past actions. Example: A person holds on to a losing stock because they don't want to feel the regret of selling it at a loss. | |
Escalation of commitment: Continuing to invest resources into a decision because of the resources that have already been invested. Example: A person continues to gamble even though they are losing money because they have already invested so much time and money into it. | |
Emotional reasoning: Making decisions based on emotions rather than logic or reason. Example: A person decides to break up with their partner because they feel angry or sad, rather than because of any logical or rational reason. | |
Social fallacies: | |
Bandwagon effect: The tendency to do something because many other people are doing it. Example: A person buys a stock because they see that many other people are buying it. | |
False authority: Relying on the opinion of someone who is not an expert in a field. Example: A person relies on the opinion of a celebrity or a friend who is not a financial expert when making investment decisions. | |
False consensus: The belief that other people's views and actions are more similar to one's own than they actually are. Example: A person believes that most people share their political beliefs and that they are in the majority. | |
Social proof: The belief that the actions of others can be used as evidence to support one's own beliefs or decisions. Example: A person believes that a product is good because many other people have bought it. | |
Groupthink: The tendency to conform to the views of a group, even if those views are irrational or harmful. Example: A person agrees with a group decision to invest in a stock that they believe is risky, because they don't want to go against the group. | |
Epistemological fallacies: | |
Appeal to ignorance: The belief that a lack of evidence against an assertion means that the assertion is true. Example: A person argues that a certain medical treatment is effective because there is no evidence that it is not effective. | |
Appeal to authority: The belief that an assertion is true because an authority figure says it is true. Example: A person believes that a certain stock is a good investment because a financial expert says so. | |
Appeal to tradition: The belief that an assertion is true because it has been traditionally believed to be true. Example: A person believes that a certain medical treatment is effective because it has been used for centuries. | |
Appeal to emotion: The belief that an assertion is true because it evokes a certain emotional response. Example: A person believes that a certain political candidate is the best choice because they feel a sense of patriotism when listening to their speeches. | |
Appeal to popularity: The belief that an assertion is true because many people believe it to be true. Example: A person believes that a certain product is good because many people have bought it. | |
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It's important to note that this is not an exhaustive list and different sources may categorize fallacies differently, but this tutorial provides a general overview of some common decision fallacies, grouped in a way that minimizes overlap as much as possible. Additionally, it's also important to note that recognizing and avoiding these fallacies can be a key element in decision making process. |
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