- Serious clinical outcomes are strongly correlated with age and accompanying illnesses;
- Most of the spread happens indoor and requires 15min+ contant;
- Younger people tend to be asymptomatic and spread;
- Masks work. The work better if everyone wears them;
- Young people resist being locked down.
- There is still no cure -- getting sick with the virus sucks.
- Avoid public transport and indoor activities;
- Wear mask outside;
- Prefer shopping online, wear N-95 if you go to a store;
- Avoid younger people;
- Prefer outdoors activities with friends;
I was completely wrong with the tyranny prediction. The country started to open up pretty quickly. There was no shortage of ventilators or masks. To my surprise, people revolted. There were mass gatherings despite the pandemic.
The bet on tech companies didn't pan out. Apple and Google opened an API to track cases but no one cares. In general, tech response was pathetic. Medical science is in a worse shape that I thought.
As many of you, I'm scrupulously following the pandemics. Tracking my thoughts here.
The crisis is solvable. South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan are providing playbooks. European countries, Iran and partially the US are showing what to not do. But governements and the public around the world are adopting.
This is not the end of the world, invest your time and money.
The virus sucks. Be personally paranoid, you don't want to be the one who catches it.
Take all the precotions.
- wash your hands;
- clean wipe all the external pacakges;
- warm up food deliveries;
- avoid the human contact outside;
- avoid shops and elevators;
- wear a N95 mask and gloves.
A tyranny is an effective way to mitigate the virus. Governments can seal the people in their buildings, mobilize the resources to build field hospitals, masks and ventilators.
Fortunately for us, full draconian measures besides being immoral are bad for the economy.
Expect local quarantines, travel restrictions and mandatory requirement to wear a mask.
Testing that is fast and wide spread can be deployed.
Google and Apple, major mobile phone players (plus the carriers), can trace contacts between infected.
Governments can force people to carry the cell phone around. And isolate if tested positive, or contacted with someone who tested positive.
Public should make sure that privacy of the citizens is respected.
Nothing will work in near term. Keep being paranoid.
Major deregulations are incomming.
The US will ramp up the ventilator production. Same with personal protection.
Vaccine is very much doable, pre-existing research on SARS was put on hold. But will take more than a year.
There are promising treatments, the time to validate might be shorter that usual. More promising that a vaccine.