CP/GDP vs future CP growth

gistfile1.r

dlag = function(p, k = 1)
{
  return( lag(Delt(p, k=k), k=-k) )
}

getSymbols( c("CP", "GDP"), src="FRED" )

layout(1:2)

a = na.omit(merge(CP/GDP*100, dlag(CP, k=4*5)*100))
names(a) = c("Corp Profits as % of NGDP", "Next 5y Corp Profit Growth")
scatter.smooth(a)
abline(v= 8.324985, lty=2)
abline(h= 46.22570, lty=2)
title("Yes, Profits/GDP suggest reduction in Profit Growth...")

a = na.omit(merge(Delt(CP, k=4*5)*100, dlag(GSPC[,6], k=260)*100))
names(a) = c("5y Corp Profit Growth", "Next 1y SPX Performance")
scatter.smooth(a)
title("...but that's actually positively correlated with stock performance!")