In the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, there have been many features of the data which do not seem to have made sense.
In this article I will explain how the standard SEIR model used as the basis for most of the analysis fails to account for these features of the data. I will then propose a new model for understanding the disease's spread which more adequately explains these strange features.
Spain and Portugal started out with very different outbreaks, with Spain significantly more affected than Portugal. However after the lockdown they have converged to very similar growth rates. If there is some factor which makes Portugal less susceptible to the diseases, why has it not lead to the spread being lower while under lockdown?