rsymtemm2_refutation.rb

# proof that rsystemm2 (http://rsystemm2.tumblr.com/) is bullshit
# designed to earn referral money from ladbrokes.
#
# this actually uses a 50% win chance, compared to roulettes 48.6%
# so it should be _more_ profitable than the "system"
# sample output in 2nd file.

def roulette_system
  history = []
  predicted = nil
  pot = 31
  loss_counter = 1
  stake = 1

  100_000.times do |i|
    history.shift if history.length == 5
    history << [:red, :black].sample
    if predicted
      if predicted == history.last
        # won
        pot += stake*loss_counter*2
        loss_counter = 1
        history = []
      else
        # lost
        loss_counter += 1
      end

      predicted = nil
    else
      if history.length == 5 && history.uniq.length == 1
        predicted = history.first == :red ? :black : :red
        # bet next
        pot -= stake*loss_counter
      end
    end
  end

  pot
end

results = []
5000.times{ |i| puts "#{i}/5000" if i % 50 == 0; results << roulette_system }
puts "average pot after 100,000 plays by 5000 players: #{results.reduce(:+).fdiv(results.length)}"

sample_output.txt

0/5000
50/5000
100/5000
150/5000
200/5000
250/5000
300/5000
350/5000
400/5000
450/5000
500/5000
550/5000
600/5000
650/5000
700/5000
750/5000
800/5000
850/5000
900/5000
950/5000
1000/5000
1050/5000
1100/5000
1150/5000
1200/5000
1250/5000
1300/5000
1350/5000
1400/5000
1450/5000
1500/5000
1550/5000
1600/5000
1650/5000
1700/5000
1750/5000
1800/5000
1850/5000
1900/5000
1950/5000
2000/5000
2050/5000
2100/5000
2150/5000
2200/5000
2250/5000
2300/5000
2350/5000
2400/5000
2450/5000
2500/5000
2550/5000
2600/5000
2650/5000
2700/5000
2750/5000
2800/5000
2850/5000
2900/5000
2950/5000
3000/5000
3050/5000
3100/5000
3150/5000
3200/5000
3250/5000
3300/5000
3350/5000
3400/5000
3450/5000
3500/5000
3550/5000
3600/5000
3650/5000
3700/5000
3750/5000
3800/5000
3850/5000
3900/5000
3950/5000
4000/5000
4050/5000
4100/5000
4150/5000
4200/5000
4250/5000
4300/5000
4350/5000
4400/5000
4450/5000
4500/5000
4550/5000
4600/5000
4650/5000
4700/5000
4750/5000
4800/5000
4850/5000
4900/5000
4950/5000
average pot after 100,000 plays by 5000 players: 30.6482

Hi Mike, thanks for posting this.

I'm a journalist trying to find out a bit more about this affiliate system. I can't find the Ladbrokes page - it's been taken down: http://rsystemm2.tumblr.com/

You don't have a screenshot of the Ladbrokes page, do you?

Please email me on william@the-newshub.com - I'd appreciate any help you can give.

Cheers,