Reproduction of poor SQL Server query plan choice

Repro.sql

use master
go

IF db_id('MyTest') IS NOT NULL
BEGIN
    ALTER DATABASE MyTest SET SINGLE_USER WITH ROLLBACK IMMEDIATE;
    DROP DATABASE MyTest;
END

CREATE DATABASE MyTest;
go

use MyTest;
go
CREATE TABLE dbo.GROUPS(
    GroupId int NOT NULL,
    GroupTypeId int NULL,
    Description nvarchar(max) NULL,
    CONSTRAINT PK_GROUPS PRIMARY KEY NONCLUSTERED ( GroupId ) 
) 
GO

CREATE CLUSTERED INDEX IX_GROUPS 
    ON dbo.GROUPS ( GroupTypeId, GroupId )
GO

CREATE TABLE dbo.ORG_USERS(
    UserId int NOT NULL,
    OrgUnitId int NOT NULL,
    RoleId int NOT NULL,
    SourceOrgUnitId int NULL,
    CONSTRAINT PK_ORG_USERS PRIMARY KEY CLUSTERED ( UserId,    OrgUnitId )
)
GO

CREATE NONCLUSTERED INDEX IX_ORG_USERS_OrgUnitId_SourceOrgUnitId 
    ON dbo.ORG_USERS ( OrgUnitId, SourceOrgUnitId )
CREATE NONCLUSTERED INDEX IX_ORG_USERS_OULOOKUP_RoleId 
    ON dbo.ORG_USERS ( RoleId, OrgUnitId, UserId )
GO
UPDATE STATISTICS dbo.GROUPS(IX_GROUPS) WITH STATS_STREAM = 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ROWCOUNT = 10099, PAGECOUNT = 121
GO
UPDATE STATISTICS dbo.GROUPS(PK_GROUPS) WITH STATS_STREAM = 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
GO
CREATE STATISTICS stats_ORG_USERS_SourceOrgUnitId ON dbo.ORG_USERS(SourceOrgUnitId) WITH STATS_STREAM = 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GO
UPDATE STATISTICS dbo.ORG_USERS(IX_ORG_USERS_OrgUnitId_SourceOrgUnitId) WITH STATS_STREAM = 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ROWCOUNT = 16050171, PAGECOUNT = 67096
GO
UPDATE STATISTICS dbo.ORG_USERS(IX_ORG_USERS_OULOOKUP_RoleId) WITH STATS_STREAM = 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
GO
UPDATE STATISTICS dbo.ORG_USERS(PK_ORG_USERS) WITH STATS_STREAM = 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ROWCOUNT = 16050171, PAGECOUNT = 141735
GO

DECLARE @UserId INT = 71710;
DECLARE @SectionGroupTypeID INT = 819;

-- uses scan + merge join,
-- estimated cost ~75
SELECT OUL.UserId, 
       OUL.OrgUnitId, 
       OUL.SourceOrgUnitId
  FROM GROUPS GI
  JOIN ORG_USERS OUI
       ON OUI.OrgUnitId = GI.GroupId
  JOIN ORG_USERS OUL 
       ON GI.GroupId = OUL.OrgUnitId
 WHERE GI.GroupTypeID = @SectionGroupTypeId
   AND OUI.UserId = @UserId
   AND OUL.SourceOrgUnitId = OUL.OrgUnitId
 OPTION (MAXDOP 1);

-- uses seek and loop join
-- estimated cost ~0.024
SELECT OUL.UserId, 
       OUL.OrgUnitId, 
       OUL.SourceOrgUnitId
  FROM GROUPS GI
  JOIN ORG_USERS OUI
       ON OUI.OrgUnitId = GI.GroupId
  JOIN ORG_USERS OUL 
       ON GI.GroupId = OUL.OrgUnitId
 WHERE GI.GroupTypeID = @SectionGroupTypeId
   AND OUI.UserId = @UserId
   AND OUL.SourceOrgUnitId ^ OUL.OrgUnitId = 0
 OPTION (MAXDOP 1);