12-poissonBA.R

# Sample posterior
post <- extract.samples(eggsLMod)

# Run simulations w/ averages of all predictors, except parasite 0 / 1
lambdaNoP <- exp(post$a + 0*post$bP + 0*post$bA +
                       0*post$bGS + 0*post$bES + 0*0*post$bPA)
simFledgeNoPar <- rpois(n = length(lambdaNoP), lambda = lambdaNoP)

lambdaP <- exp(post$a + 1*post$bP + 0*post$bA +
                     0*post$bGS + 0*post$bES + 1*0*post$bPA)
simFledgePar <- rpois(n = length(lambdaP), lambda = lambdaP)
table(simFledgeNoPar)
table(simFledgePar)

# Sim with varying age
# No parasite
predictions <- sapply(rangeA, function(x){
      exp(post$a + 0*post$bP + x*post$bA + 0*post$bGS +
                0*post$bES + 0*x*post$bPA)
})
hdpiPois <- apply(predictions, 2, HPDI, prob = .95)
meanPois <- colMeans(predictions)
plot(rangeA, meanPois, type = "l", ylim = c(0, 7), yaxp = c(0, 7, 7),
     xlab = "Min Age (standardized)", ylab = expression(lambda))
shade(hdpiPois, rangeA)
# Parasite
predictionsP <- sapply(rangeA, function(x){
      exp(post$a + 1*post$bP + x*post$bA + 0*post$bGS +
                0*post$bES + x*post$bPA)
})
hdpiPoisP <- apply(predictionsP, 2, HPDI, prob = .95)
meanPoisP <- colMeans(predictionsP)
lines(rangeA, meanPoisP, lty = 2, col = "red")
shade(hdpiPoisP, rangeA, col = rgb(1,0,0,.25))