selection_probability.py

#!/usr/bin/env python


def selection_probability(mns, blocks):
    p_pool = mns / 10
    p_prob = 1.0 - ((float(p_pool - 1) / float(p_pool)) ** float(blocks))
    return "{:0.2f}%".format(p_prob * 100)


masternode_count = 4387

print '{0:>2} {1:>8} {2:>8}'.format("hour", "blocks", "prob")
for hour in [1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42, 48, 72, 96]:
    blocks = 23.07 * hour # avg 2.6m per block == 23.07 blocks per hour
    print '{0:>4} {1:>8.2f} {2:>8}'.format(hour, blocks, selection_probability(masternode_count, blocks))