Excess Deaths

excess_death.R

library(tidyverse)
library(patchwork)

# CDC Covid-19 Excess Deaths
# https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-Deaths-Associated-with-COVID-19/xkkf-xrst/
df <- read_csv("https://data.cdc.gov/resource/xkkf-xrst.csv")

df %>% 
  filter(Outcome == "All causes", Type == "Unweighted") ->
  df

df %>% 
  filter(State == "Florida", `Week Ending Date` >= "2020-01-01") %>% 
  filter(`Week Ending Date` < Sys.Date()-14) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(`Week Ending Date`)) +
  geom_point(aes(y = `Observed Number`), alpha = .5) +
  geom_line(aes(y = `Average Expected Count`), color = "blue") +
  theme_minimal() +
  coord_cartesian(ylim = c(0, 10000)) +
  scale_x_date(date_labels = "%b '%y", date_breaks = "1 month") +
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45)) +
  labs(x = "Week Ending", y = "Number of Deaths", title = "Florida", subtitle = "Actual Deaths vs Expected (blue)") ->
  g1
  
df %>% 
  filter(State == "New York", `Week Ending Date` >= "2020-01-01") %>% 
  filter(`Week Ending Date` < Sys.Date()-14) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(`Week Ending Date`)) +
  geom_point(aes(y = `Observed Number`), alpha = .5) +
  geom_line(aes(y = `Average Expected Count`), color = "blue") +
  theme_minimal() +
  coord_cartesian(ylim = c(0, 10000)) +
  scale_x_date(date_labels = "%b '%y", date_breaks = "1 month") +
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45)) +
  labs(x = "Week Ending", y = "Number of Deaths", title = "New York", subtitle = "Actual Deaths vs Expected (blue)") ->
  g2

g1 + g2