FRED: Layoffs + Leaves

simple_fred.R

library(tidyverse)
library(alfred)

series <- tribble(
  ~Series, ~Name,
  "CEU3000000001", "All Employees - Manufacturing",
  "JTU3000HIR", "Hires",
  "JTU3000LDR", "Layoffs",
  "JTU3000QUR", "Quits"
)

series %>%
  mutate(data = map(Series, ~ get_fred_series(.x, "Value", "2000-12-01"))) %>%
  unnest(data) %>%
  select(-Series) %>%
  spread(Name, Value) ->
  data

data %>%
  mutate(Leaves = Layoffs + Quits) %>%
  pull(Leaves) ->
  leaves

h <- stl(ts(na.omit(data$Hires), frequency = 12), "periodic")
l <- stl(ts(na.omit(leaves), frequency = 12), s.window = "periodic")

data_frame(
  date = data$date[1:198],
  Hires = h$time.series[, 2] + h$time.series[, 3],
  Leaves = l$time.series[, 2] + l$time.series[, 3]
) %>%
  gather(series, value, -date) %>%
  ggplot(aes(date, value, color = series)) +
  geom_rect(aes(xmin = as.Date("2007-12-01"), xmax = as.Date("2009-06-01"), ymin = 1, ymax = 5), fill = "#efefef", color = "#efefef", alpha = .4) +
  geom_rect(aes(xmin = as.Date("2001-05-01"), xmax = as.Date("2001-11-01"), ymin = 1, ymax = 5), fill = "#efefef", color = "#efefef", alpha = .4) +
  geom_line(alpha = .4) +
  geom_smooth(span = .5, se = FALSE) +
  scale_x_date(date_breaks = "1 year", date_labels = "%Y") +
  theme_annalect() +
  coord_cartesian(ylim = c(1.4, 4)) +
  labs(
    x = "Month",
    y = "Rate",
    title = "Layoffs + Quits vs. Hires",
    caption = "Using alfred to query FRED data"
  )