RMarkdown project for Bill McBride's Questions for 2014

gistfile1.md

Custom FRED Data Reports

Based on Bill McBride’s "Ten Economic Questions for 2014"

require(knitr)
require(ggplot2)
require(rdatamarket)
require(plyr)
require(lubridate)

1) Economic growth

Heading into 2014, it seems most analysts expect faster economic growth. So do I. Will 2014 be the best year of the recovery so far? Could 2014 be the best year since the '90s? Or will 2014 disappoint?

gdp <- as.data.frame(dmseries("http://datamarket.com/data/set/3p4m/gross-domestic-product-gdp-sum-of-pieces#!ds=3p4m&display=line"))
str(gdp)

gdp$quarter <- row.names(gdp)
names(gdp) <- c('gdp','quarter')
  
gdp$growth <- ( gdp[,'gdp'] - c(NA, gdp[1:nrow(gdp)-1,'gdp']) ) / c(NA, gdp[1:nrow(gdp)-1,'gdp'])

gdp$qtr.num <- as.numeric(gsub(' Q', '.' ,gdp$quarter))

ggplot(subset(gdp, qtr.num >= 2000.1)) + geom_line(aes(x=qtr.num, y=growth))

3) Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is still elevated at 7.0% in November. For the last three years I've been too pessimistic on the unemployment rate because I was expecting some minor bounce back in the participation rate. Instead the participation rate continued to decline. Maybe 2014 will be the year the participation rate increases a little, or at least stabilizes.

Persons Unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force

# unemp <- as.data.frame(dmseries("http://data.is/qb61uf"))

unemp <- as.data.frame(dmseries("http://datamarket.com/data/set/1les/unemployment-rate"))
unemp <- data.frame('month_year'=row.names(unemp), 'unemp_rate'=unemp[,'All.Industries.Government.Wage.and.Salary.Workers..Not.Seasonally.Adjusted'])

unemp <- subset(unemp, !is.na(unemp_rate))
unemp$month <- match(gsub(' [0-9]{4}', '',  unemp$month_year), month.abb)

unemp$year <- as.numeric(laply(strsplit(as.character(unemp$month_year), ' '), tail, 1))

unemp$date <- ymd(paste(unemp$year, unemp$month, 1, sep='-'))

ggplot(subset(unemp, year >= 2000)) + geom_line(aes(x=date, y=unemp_rate))