https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD_mjIiRxuo sierikas. Zurich, Switzerland
Little/no precip (little can mean thermals, me: unstability? so can be good) Light winds at altitude Unstable airmass, but not storm (6 or 7 degree difference per 1000 mts) Cumulus clouds (me: not clear -> blue days more predictable, big/shallow shade g areas) Thermals all day long Good weather over wide area No day spoilers, eg. High cloud (me: shade?) Over-development Storms Inversions me: other? Non-weather: Airspace Access to take off XC route options
Clusters of good days (sun, not much wind) Instability: Differences in temp each 1000m (< 6 deg: stable, > 7 or 8 deg: storms) Wind at different altitudes
Focus on a set of weather services and learn their accuracy Too much info is overwhelming They don't coincide much: always one that confirms what we want Changing forecast (week != three day != 1 day) means not reliable Good XC days tend to come together Isolated days hard to forecast Check text forecasts for spoilers
Windy (enough) ECMWF - 9 km, 9 days, baseline, already very good ICON - 6 km, 4 days, seems to be somewhat more accurate AROME - 1.3 km, 1.5 days, surface only, but has enough resolution for valley winds
meteo-parapente.com Windgram: wind/clouds by time and altitude Sounding: white: stable, green: good, blue: stormy (some spots are good)
Others (not great in Spain): soaringmeteo.org
(more below)
Sunny Not too windy
GFS ECMWF
Pick days
Maybe just check middle of flight day: 2pm (me: for me maybe later?)
Reliability: changed from week forecast? Wind Speed and direction at 2000 and 3000 msnm (me: what is best? good altitudes in Spain?) Foehn me: comor? me, not sure: cosmo-e best model? 1.1km res, 8 updates/day Precipitation Little/no precip (little can mean thermals, me: unstability? so can be good) Cloud cover (me: what is best?)
ECMWF ICON
Pick regions
Reliability: changed from 3 day forecast? Development through day of - Cloud and precipitation cloud cover, movement height of base Tools: Models: Compare models (in windy, me: or meteoblue) me: check reliability in windy, vs. station reported weather by hand (automated?) regarding non recorded vars Presenter prefers (Switzerland) ECMWF: 9 km resolution, updates twice a day ICON: 6 km resolution (more accurate?) meteo-parapente.com Windgram: wind/clouds by time and altitude - Instability Tools: meteo-parapente.com Sounding: white: stable, green: good, blue: stormy (some spots are good) Pressure? go where it is lowering? he uses: Cosmo-e ensemble forecast, sea surface pressure and tendency (CTRL) (map from MeteoSwiss) - Wind check strength and direction at different altitudes to plan the day how meteo winds affect valley winds valley winds tend to go upstream Tools: meteo-parapente.com Windgram: wind/clouds by time and altitude
See above
Pick regions Plan flight Profit from wind Direction changes to go tailwind in triangles me: pick altitude with convenient direction for more tailwind transitions?
Are conditions as expected?
Handy to have wind directions Reported from stations Presenter: Cosmo-1 forecast, 8 updates/day at 1.1km res (good in Spain too?)
Learn: compare actual weather to prediction What did you see/experience Other people logs (XContest: max climbs, groundspeeds) Analysis: Thermal Start time Strength Derive (wind speed) Top of lift Photos Cloud development Inversion layers Flight time Total Start/end
para-alpinism!