Created
May 11, 2018 00:22
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void Main() | |
{ | |
GetPassFailRateWithConfidence(10, 2, 0.95).ToString().Dump(); | |
GetPassFailRateWithConfidence(100, 20, 0.95).ToString().Dump(); | |
GetPassFailRateWithConfidence(1000, 200, 0.95).ToString().Dump(); | |
GetPassFailRateWithConfidence(10000, 2000, 0.95).ToString().Dump(); | |
} | |
public ErrorRate GetPassFailRateWithConfidence(long passes, long fails, double confidence) | |
{ | |
double fact(long n) => Math.Round(Math.Sqrt(Math.PI * (2 * n + 1.0 / 3)) * Math.Pow(n / Math.E, n)); | |
double nCr(long n, long r) => | |
fact(n).Dump() / (fact(r) * fact(n - r)); | |
long gcd(long a, long b) => b > 0 | |
? gcd(b, a % b) | |
: a; | |
double nCr2(long n, long r, double factor) | |
{ | |
if (r > n / 2) r = n - r; | |
double ans = factor; | |
for (long i = 1; i <= r; i++) | |
{ | |
var num = (n - r + i); | |
var divisor = gcd(num, i); | |
ans *= (num / divisor); | |
ans /= (i / divisor); | |
} | |
return ans; | |
} | |
var total = passes + fails; | |
var θ = (passes + 0.5) / (total + 1); | |
double P(long p) => | |
nCr2(total, p, Math.Pow(θ, p) * Math.Pow(1 - θ, total - p)); | |
var minThreshold = (1 - confidence) / 2; | |
var maxThreshold = 1 - minThreshold; | |
var sum = 0.0; | |
double? min = default; | |
double? max = default; | |
for (var i = 0; i <= total; i++) | |
{ | |
if (sum >= maxThreshold && max == null) | |
{ | |
max = (double)i / total; | |
break; | |
} | |
sum += P(i); | |
//sum.Dump(); | |
if (sum >= minThreshold && min == null) | |
{ | |
min = (double)i / total; | |
} | |
} | |
if (max == null) | |
{ | |
max = 1; | |
} | |
return new ErrorRate(mean: (double)passes / total, min: min.Value, max: max.Value, confidence: confidence); | |
} | |
public class ErrorRate | |
{ | |
public ErrorRate(double mean, double min, double max, double confidence) | |
{ | |
this.Mean = mean; | |
this.Min = min; | |
this.Max = max; | |
this.Confidence = confidence; | |
} | |
public double Mean { get; } | |
public double Min { get; } | |
public double Max { get; } | |
public double Confidence { get; } | |
public override string ToString() | |
{ | |
return $"{this.Mean:P} ({this.Min:P}-{this.Max:P} @{this.Confidence:P})"; | |
} | |
} |
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