How far and fast does the base fee move? A family of curves for the first few days of London.

base_fee_multiple_viability_12981095.csv

# Section 1. How low can you go?
# Multiple <= 1.0
# Did a fee become viable due to the protocol base fee dropping? 
# Concept: The longer the window, the greater the chance the protocol moves favourably.

A fee 0.3x current base fee was viable within 30s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.3x current base fee was viable within 60s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.3x current base fee was viable within 90s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.3x current base fee was viable within 120s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.3x current base fee was viable within 150s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.3x current base fee was viable within 180s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.3x current base fee was viable within 240s 0.00% of the time.

A fee 0.5x current base fee was viable within 30s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.5x current base fee was viable within 60s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.5x current base fee was viable within 90s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.5x current base fee was viable within 120s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.5x current base fee was viable within 150s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.5x current base fee was viable within 180s 0.00% of the time.
A fee 0.5x current base fee was viable within 240s 0.00% of the time.

A fee 0.7x current base fee was viable within 30s 0.16% of the time.
A fee 0.7x current base fee was viable within 60s 0.39% of the time.
A fee 0.7x current base fee was viable within 90s 0.70% of the time.
A fee 0.7x current base fee was viable within 120s 1.08% of the time.
A fee 0.7x current base fee was viable within 150s 1.60% of the time.
A fee 0.7x current base fee was viable within 180s 2.21% of the time.
A fee 0.7x current base fee was viable within 240s 3.55% of the time.

A fee 0.75x current base fee was viable within 30s 0.68% of the time.
A fee 0.75x current base fee was viable within 60s 1.80% of the time.
A fee 0.75x current base fee was viable within 90s 3.05% of the time.
A fee 0.75x current base fee was viable within 120s 4.37% of the time.
A fee 0.75x current base fee was viable within 150s 5.86% of the time.
A fee 0.75x current base fee was viable within 180s 7.23% of the time.
A fee 0.75x current base fee was viable within 240s 10.12% of the time.

A fee 0.8x current base fee was viable within 30s 3.49% of the time.
A fee 0.8x current base fee was viable within 60s 7.03% of the time.
A fee 0.8x current base fee was viable within 90s 10.25% of the time.
A fee 0.8x current base fee was viable within 120s 13.31% of the time.
A fee 0.8x current base fee was viable within 150s 16.36% of the time.
A fee 0.8x current base fee was viable within 180s 19.22% of the time.
A fee 0.8x current base fee was viable within 240s 24.00% of the time.

A fee 0.85x current base fee was viable within 30s 10.70% of the time.
A fee 0.85x current base fee was viable within 60s 19.13% of the time.
A fee 0.85x current base fee was viable within 90s 24.93% of the time.
A fee 0.85x current base fee was viable within 120s 30.16% of the time.
A fee 0.85x current base fee was viable within 150s 34.50% of the time.
A fee 0.85x current base fee was viable within 180s 37.87% of the time.
A fee 0.85x current base fee was viable within 240s 43.61% of the time.

A fee 0.95x current base fee was viable within 30s 53.41% of the time.
A fee 0.95x current base fee was viable within 60s 65.41% of the time.
A fee 0.95x current base fee was viable within 90s 71.71% of the time.
A fee 0.95x current base fee was viable within 120s 75.75% of the time.
A fee 0.95x current base fee was viable within 150s 78.62% of the time.
A fee 0.95x current base fee was viable within 180s 80.64% of the time.
A fee 0.95x current base fee was viable within 240s 83.56% of the time.

A fee 0.96x current base fee was viable within 30s 56.66% of the time.
A fee 0.96x current base fee was viable within 60s 68.58% of the time.
A fee 0.96x current base fee was viable within 90s 74.81% of the time.
A fee 0.96x current base fee was viable within 120s 78.62% of the time.
A fee 0.96x current base fee was viable within 150s 81.27% of the time.
A fee 0.96x current base fee was viable within 180s 83.04% of the time.
A fee 0.96x current base fee was viable within 240s 85.77% of the time.

A fee 0.97x current base fee was viable within 30s 59.33% of the time.
A fee 0.97x current base fee was viable within 60s 71.65% of the time.
A fee 0.97x current base fee was viable within 90s 77.58% of the time.
A fee 0.97x current base fee was viable within 120s 81.20% of the time.
A fee 0.97x current base fee was viable within 150s 83.63% of the time.
A fee 0.97x current base fee was viable within 180s 85.36% of the time.
A fee 0.97x current base fee was viable within 240s 87.69% of the time.

A fee 0.98x current base fee was viable within 30s 61.99% of the time.
A fee 0.98x current base fee was viable within 60s 74.35% of the time.
A fee 0.98x current base fee was viable within 90s 80.04% of the time.
A fee 0.98x current base fee was viable within 120s 83.47% of the time.
A fee 0.98x current base fee was viable within 150s 85.68% of the time.
A fee 0.98x current base fee was viable within 180s 87.35% of the time.
A fee 0.98x current base fee was viable within 240s 89.42% of the time.

A fee 0.99x current base fee was viable within 30s 64.50% of the time.
A fee 0.99x current base fee was viable within 60s 77.07% of the time.
A fee 0.99x current base fee was viable within 90s 82.64% of the time.
A fee 0.99x current base fee was viable within 120s 85.74% of the time.
A fee 0.99x current base fee was viable within 150s 87.71% of the time.
A fee 0.99x current base fee was viable within 180s 89.21% of the time.
A fee 0.99x current base fee was viable within 240s 91.04% of the time.

A fee 1x current base fee was viable within 30s 99.99% of the time.
A fee 1x current base fee was viable within 60s 99.99% of the time.
A fee 1x current base fee was viable within 90s 99.99% of the time.
A fee 1x current base fee was viable within 120s 99.99% of the time.
A fee 1x current base fee was viable within 150s 99.99% of the time.
A fee 1x current base fee was viable within 180s 99.99% of the time.
A fee 1x current base fee was viable within 240s 99.99% of the time.

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# Section 2. How high makes it safe?
# Multiple >1.
# Is a transaction still viable when the procotol base fee is rising?
# (Or did the base fee rise and was too high at the end of the window)
# Concept: The longer the window, the greater the chance the protocol moves unfavourably.

A fee 1.05x current base fee was viable at 30s 81.30% of the time.
A fee 1.05x current base fee was viable at 60s 75.50% of the time.
A fee 1.05x current base fee was viable at 90s 72.76% of the time.
A fee 1.05x current base fee was viable at 120s 71.54% of the time.
A fee 1.05x current base fee was viable at 150s 71.04% of the time.
A fee 1.05x current base fee was viable at 180s 69.32% of the time.
A fee 1.05x current base fee was viable at 240s 68.02% of the time.

A fee 1.1x current base fee was viable at 30s 89.47% of the time.
A fee 1.1x current base fee was viable at 60s 86.80% of the time.
A fee 1.1x current base fee was viable at 90s 85.06% of the time.
A fee 1.1x current base fee was viable at 120s 83.78% of the time.
A fee 1.1x current base fee was viable at 150s 82.62% of the time.
A fee 1.1x current base fee was viable at 180s 81.14% of the time.
A fee 1.1x current base fee was viable at 240s 79.47% of the time.

A fee 1.15x current base fee was viable at 30s 98.55% of the time.
A fee 1.15x current base fee was viable at 60s 95.25% of the time.
A fee 1.15x current base fee was viable at 90s 92.48% of the time.
A fee 1.15x current base fee was viable at 120s 91.56% of the time.
A fee 1.15x current base fee was viable at 150s 90.48% of the time.
A fee 1.15x current base fee was viable at 180s 89.54% of the time.
A fee 1.15x current base fee was viable at 240s 87.56% of the time.

A fee 1.2x current base fee was viable at 30s 99.34% of the time.
A fee 1.2x current base fee was viable at 60s 97.79% of the time.
A fee 1.2x current base fee was viable at 90s 96.40% of the time.
A fee 1.2x current base fee was viable at 120s 95.61% of the time.
A fee 1.2x current base fee was viable at 150s 95.05% of the time.
A fee 1.2x current base fee was viable at 180s 94.36% of the time.
A fee 1.2x current base fee was viable at 240s 92.99% of the time.

A fee 1.3x current base fee was viable at 30s 99.91% of the time.
A fee 1.3x current base fee was viable at 60s 99.61% of the time.
A fee 1.3x current base fee was viable at 90s 99.21% of the time.
A fee 1.3x current base fee was viable at 120s 98.93% of the time.
A fee 1.3x current base fee was viable at 150s 98.56% of the time.
A fee 1.3x current base fee was viable at 180s 98.24% of the time.
A fee 1.3x current base fee was viable at 240s 97.70% of the time.

A fee 1.5x current base fee was viable at 30s 99.98% of the time.
A fee 1.5x current base fee was viable at 60s 99.89% of the time.
A fee 1.5x current base fee was viable at 90s 99.78% of the time.
A fee 1.5x current base fee was viable at 120s 99.62% of the time.
A fee 1.5x current base fee was viable at 150s 99.58% of the time.
A fee 1.5x current base fee was viable at 180s 99.52% of the time.
A fee 1.5x current base fee was viable at 240s 99.36% of the time.

A fee 1.7x current base fee was viable at 30s 99.99% of the time.
A fee 1.7x current base fee was viable at 60s 99.93% of the time.
A fee 1.7x current base fee was viable at 90s 99.87% of the time.
A fee 1.7x current base fee was viable at 120s 99.76% of the time.
A fee 1.7x current base fee was viable at 150s 99.75% of the time.
A fee 1.7x current base fee was viable at 180s 99.72% of the time.
A fee 1.7x current base fee was viable at 240s 99.56% of the time.

A fee 2x current base fee was viable at 30s 100.00% of the time.
A fee 2x current base fee was viable at 60s 99.96% of the time.
A fee 2x current base fee was viable at 90s 99.94% of the time.
A fee 2x current base fee was viable at 120s 99.84% of the time.
A fee 2x current base fee was viable at 150s 99.81% of the time.
A fee 2x current base fee was viable at 180s 99.76% of the time.
A fee 2x current base fee was viable at 240s 99.68% of the time.

A fee 2.5x current base fee was viable at 30s 100.00% of the time.
A fee 2.5x current base fee was viable at 60s 100.00% of the time.
A fee 2.5x current base fee was viable at 90s 99.96% of the time.
A fee 2.5x current base fee was viable at 120s 99.91% of the time.
A fee 2.5x current base fee was viable at 150s 99.87% of the time.
A fee 2.5x current base fee was viable at 180s 99.83% of the time.
A fee 2.5x current base fee was viable at 240s 99.78% of the time.

A fee 3x current base fee was viable at 30s 100.00% of the time.
A fee 3x current base fee was viable at 60s 100.00% of the time.
A fee 3x current base fee was viable at 90s 99.99% of the time.
A fee 3x current base fee was viable at 120s 99.95% of the time.
A fee 3x current base fee was viable at 150s 99.92% of the time.
A fee 3x current base fee was viable at 180s 99.90% of the time.
A fee 3x current base fee was viable at 240s 99.86% of the time.