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2018 Yards per Attempt stats for players with more than 50 rushing plays
Raw
gistfile1.txt
Name # plays Actual Expected Ratio Dif
Kerryon Johnson 118 5.432 3.755 1.446 1.677
Kenneth Dixon 60 5.550 4.201 1.321 1.349
Saquon Barkley 261 5.008 3.738 1.340 1.270
Nick Chubb 190 5.184 3.931 1.319 1.253
Derrick Henry 200 4.825 3.695 1.306 1.130
Jordan Wilkins 60 5.600 4.558 1.229 1.042
Aaron Jones 132 5.485 4.465 1.228 1.020
Zach Zenner 55 4.818 3.845 1.253 0.973
Phillip Lindsay 189 5.466 4.510 1.212 0.955
Isaiah Crowell 143 4.790 3.919 1.222 0.872
Rashaad Penny 85 4.929 4.071 1.211 0.859
Gus Edwards 137 5.241 4.450 1.178 0.791
Lamar Miller 207 4.638 3.865 1.200 0.772
C.J. Anderson 67 6.015 5.324 1.130 0.691
Joe Mixon 237 4.928 4.245 1.161 0.684
Ezekiel Elliott 297 4.758 4.098 1.161 0.659
Christian McCaffrey 216 4.958 4.351 1.140 0.607
Matt Breida 153 5.320 4.782 1.113 0.539
James Conner 214 4.542 4.004 1.134 0.538
Chris Carson 247 4.660 4.159 1.121 0.501
Frank Gore 155 4.626 4.172 1.109 0.454
Mike Davis 111 4.631 4.230 1.095 0.400
Latavius Murray 139 4.151 3.776 1.099 0.375
Kareem Hunt 181 4.552 4.185 1.088 0.368
Tevin Coleman 167 4.790 4.457 1.075 0.334
Bilal Powell 80 4.287 3.955 1.084 0.332
Mark Ingram 138 4.674 4.349 1.075 0.325
Marlon Mack 195 4.656 4.380 1.063 0.276
Marshawn Lynch 90 4.178 3.926 1.064 0.252
Jalen Richard 55 4.709 4.476 1.052 0.233
Austin Ekeler 105 5.114 4.901 1.044 0.213
Adrian Peterson 251 4.151 3.990 1.041 0.162
Royce Freeman 124 3.927 3.809 1.031 0.119
Kenyan Drake 118 4.398 4.308 1.021 0.091
Todd Gurley 256 4.887 4.804 1.017 0.083
Dalvin Cook 131 4.611 4.604 1.001 0.007
Jaylen Samuels 55 4.636 4.649 0.997 -0.013
Marcus Murphy 51 4.824 4.869 0.991 -0.045
Melvin Gordon 175 5.057 5.103 0.991 -0.046
T.J. Yeldon 102 3.990 4.089 0.976 -0.099
Doug Martin 172 4.203 4.305 0.976 -0.102
Alvin Kamara 191 4.539 4.643 0.978 -0.103
David Johnson 254 3.657 3.770 0.970 -0.112
Leonard Fournette 133 3.301 3.419 0.965 -0.118
Josh Adams 119 4.294 4.445 0.966 -0.150
Peyton Barber 234 3.722 3.891 0.957 -0.169
Jamaal Williams 121 3.835 4.051 0.947 -0.216
Sony Michel 209 4.455 4.700 0.948 -0.245
Alfred Morris 111 3.856 4.118 0.936 -0.262
Jordan Howard 249 3.755 4.027 0.932 -0.272
Alfred Blue 149 3.282 3.570 0.919 -0.288
James White 93 4.559 4.872 0.936 -0.313
Chase Edmonds 59 3.186 3.570 0.892 -0.384
Nyheim Hines 83 3.578 3.985 0.898 -0.406
Dion Lewis 154 3.312 3.728 0.888 -0.416
Alex Collins 112 3.625 4.063 0.892 -0.438
Carlos Hyde 172 3.320 3.803 0.873 -0.483
Elijah McGuire 88 3.045 3.587 0.849 -0.541
Wendell Smallwood 87 4.184 4.731 0.884 -0.547
Tarik Cohen 94 4.362 4.948 0.882 -0.586
Jeff Wilson 66 4.030 4.624 0.872 -0.593
Chris Ivory 114 3.342 3.941 0.848 -0.599
Wayne Gallman 51 3.451 4.201 0.822 -0.750
Ito Smith 89 3.596 4.382 0.821 -0.786
Rex Burkhead 56 3.304 4.198 0.787 -0.894
Corey Clement 68 3.809 4.776 0.798 -0.967
LeGarrette Blount 154 2.714 3.692 0.735 -0.977
LeSean McCoy 157 3.242 4.258 0.761 -1.016
Giovani Bernard 56 3.768 4.845 0.778 -1.078
Expected yards calculated by our model explained in https://www.kaggle.com/c/nfl-big-data-bowl-2020/discussion/119400.
@kshirley
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kshirley commented Dec 2, 2019 •
edited

Thanks for sharing this!

Based on the play-level data here...

https://www.kaggle.com/dott1718/nfl-big-data-bowl-expected-yards

I computed a slightly different ranking, using standard errors for the "Diff" column. We can compute the 95% confidence intervals for the "mean yards gained vs. expected" for each player, and rank the players by the lower bounds of those intervals. This ranking basically penalizes players with small sample sizes and/or high variability in their play-level "Diff" values.

This "confidence interval" ranking is pasted below. A couple thoughts:

  1. In 2018, almost zero players had statistically significant estimates for their "mean yards gained vs. expected". This goes along with the recent theory that running backs are practically interchangeable, and that no individual RB adds that much value.

  2. The column 'mean_rank' is the ranking based purely on the point estimate of "Diff", aka "yards gained vs. expected". This gives an idea of what changes when you account for variability in addition to the point estimates.

  3. One major drawback of ranking RBs this way is that their speed at the time of the handoff is explicitly accounted for in the model. So this ranking will penalize RBs with high speed at the time of the handoff (which is a good attribute for an RB to have!). These RBs basically give themselves a higher bar to clear, i.e. a higher value of "expected", so it's not fair to penalize them for not meeting or exceeding that bar.

Anyway, still cool. Seems like Kerryon Johnson really had a good 2018 season:

           DisplayName Position Season team   n avg_yards avg_speed mean_gain sd_gain  lower  upper mean_rank
1      Kerryon Johnson       RB   2018  DET 118     5.432     4.258     1.677   8.224  0.163  3.191         1
2      Ezekiel Elliott       RB   2018  DAL 297     4.758     4.532     0.659   5.546  0.015  1.303        16
3       Saquon Barkley       RB   2018  NYG 261     5.008     4.034     1.270  10.268 -0.002  2.541         3
4          Gus Edwards       RB   2018  BLT 137     5.241     4.163     0.791   4.903 -0.047  1.629        12
5        Derrick Henry       RB   2018  TEN 200     4.825     4.813     1.130   8.624 -0.090  2.349         5
6           Nick Chubb       RB   2018  CLV 190     5.184     4.097     1.253   9.290 -0.095  2.601         4
7         Chris Carson       RB   2018  SEA 247     4.660     4.478     0.501   4.754 -0.104  1.106        20
8      Phillip Lindsay       RB   2018  DEN 189     5.466     4.649     0.955   7.556 -0.144  2.054         9
9         James Conner       RB   2018  PIT 214     4.542     3.918     0.538   5.514 -0.216  1.292        19
10           Joe Mixon       HB   2018  CIN 237     4.928     4.609     0.684   7.200 -0.252  1.619        15
11         Aaron Jones       RB   2018   GB 132     5.485     4.938     1.020   7.325 -0.255  2.295         7
12 Christian McCaffrey       RB   2018  CAR 216     4.958     4.670     0.607   6.734 -0.309  1.524        17
13       Kenneth Dixon       RB   2018  BLT  60     5.550     3.975     1.349   6.468 -0.321  3.019         2
14          Frank Gore       RB   2018  MIA 155     4.626     4.489     0.454   5.415 -0.416  1.324        21
15         Zach Zenner       RB   2018  DET  55     4.818     4.109     0.973   5.252 -0.443  2.390         8
16        Lamar Miller       RB   2018  HST 207     4.638     4.543     0.772   8.771 -0.447  1.992        13
17     Latavius Murray       RB   2018  MIN 139     4.151     4.773     0.375   5.262 -0.518  1.268        23
18         Todd Gurley       RB   2018   LA 256     4.887     5.006     0.083   4.823 -0.520  0.686        35
19         Kareem Hunt       RB   2018   KC 181     4.552     4.208     0.368   5.976 -0.521  1.256        24
20         Marlon Mack       RB   2018  IND 195     4.656     4.115     0.276   5.594 -0.525  1.078        28
21          Mike Davis       RB   2018  SEA 111     4.631     4.401     0.400   4.979 -0.545  1.345        22
22         Mark Ingram       RB   2018   NO 138     4.674     4.940     0.325   5.184 -0.557  1.208        27
23       Rashaad Penny       RB   2018  SEA  85     4.929     4.222     0.859   6.747 -0.605  2.323        11
24       Royce Freeman       RB   2018  DEN 124     3.927     4.585     0.119   4.162 -0.629  0.866        33
25       David Johnson       RB   2018  ARZ 254     3.657     4.269    -0.112   4.309 -0.653  0.429        43
26         Doug Martin       RB   2018  OAK 172     4.203     4.453    -0.102   3.949 -0.704  0.500        41
27         Matt Breida       RB   2018   SF 153     5.320     5.397     0.539   7.819 -0.726  1.803        18
28       Peyton Barber       RB   2018   TB 234     3.722     4.267    -0.169   4.308 -0.732  0.395        46
29      Isaiah Crowell       RB   2018  NYJ 143     4.790     4.173     0.872   9.614 -0.736  2.480        10
30        Alvin Kamara       RB   2018   NO 191     4.539     5.027    -0.103   4.392 -0.739  0.532        42
31       Jordan Howard       RB   2018  CHI 249     3.755     4.272    -0.272   3.893 -0.765  0.222        50
32       C.J. Anderson       RB   2018  CAR  67     6.015     4.845     0.691   6.250 -0.836  2.218        14
33         Alfred Blue       RB   2018  HST 149     3.282     4.432    -0.288   3.373 -0.840  0.265        51
34     Jamaal Williams       RB   2018   GB 121     3.835     4.772    -0.216   3.460 -0.845  0.413        47
35      Jordan Wilkins       RB   2018  IND  60     5.600     4.025     1.042   7.320 -0.848  2.932         6
36         T.J. Yeldon       RB   2018  JAX 102     3.990     4.362    -0.099   3.793 -0.850  0.652        40
37     Adrian Peterson       RB   2018  WAS 251     4.151     4.968     0.162   8.024 -0.851  1.175        32
38   Leonard Fournette       RB   2018  JAX 133     3.301     4.694    -0.118   4.278 -0.860  0.624        44
39       Tevin Coleman       RB   2018  ATL 167     4.790     4.967     0.334   7.899 -0.889  1.556        25
40      Marshawn Lynch       RB   2018  OAK  90     4.178     4.636     0.252   5.459 -0.899  1.403        29
41        Kenyan Drake       RB   2018  MIA 118     4.398     4.564     0.091   5.519 -0.926  1.107        34
42       Melvin Gordon       RB   2018  LAC 175     5.057     4.692    -0.046   5.828 -0.927  0.835        39
43         Sony Michel       RB   2018   NE 209     4.455     4.422    -0.245   5.057 -0.945  0.454        48
44        Bilal Powell       RB   2018  NYJ  80     4.287     4.286     0.332   5.972 -1.003  1.668        26
45       Austin Ekeler       RB   2018  LAC 105     5.114     4.730     0.213   6.384 -1.033  1.459        31
46         Carlos Hyde       RB   2018  CLV 172     3.320     4.049    -0.483   3.738 -1.053  0.087        57
47          Josh Adams       RB   2018  PHI 119     4.294     4.100    -0.150   5.213 -1.106  0.805        45
48          Dion Lewis       RB   2018  TEN 154     3.312     4.728    -0.416   4.599 -1.157  0.325        55
49        Alex Collins       RB   2018  BLT 112     3.625     4.443    -0.438   3.925 -1.180  0.304        56
50        Nyheim Hines       RB   2018  IND  83     3.578     3.953    -0.406   3.732 -1.226  0.413        54
51         Dalvin Cook       RB   2018  MIN 131     4.611     5.085     0.007   7.228 -1.256  1.270        36
52   Wendell Smallwood       RB   2018  PHI  87     4.184     3.986    -0.547   3.389 -1.274  0.179        59
53      Jaylen Samuels       RB   2018  PIT  55     4.636     3.927    -0.013   4.726 -1.287  1.262        37
54         Chris Ivory       RB   2018  BUF 114     3.342     4.531    -0.599   3.849 -1.320  0.122        62
55       Alfred Morris       RB   2018   SF 111     3.856     5.216    -0.262   5.717 -1.348  0.823        49
56       Wayne Gallman       RB   2018  NYG  51     3.451     4.572    -0.750   2.337 -1.404 -0.095        63
57         James White       RB   2018   NE  93     4.559     4.258    -0.313   5.265 -1.404  0.779        52
58       Marcus Murphy       RB   2018  BUF  51     4.824     4.315    -0.045   4.865 -1.408  1.317        38
59       Jalen Richard       RB   2018  OAK  55     4.709     4.381     0.233   6.097 -1.412  1.877        30
60         Jeff Wilson       RB   2018   SF  66     4.030     5.124    -0.593   3.547 -1.466  0.280        61
61       Chase Edmonds       RB   2018  ARZ  59     3.186     4.281    -0.384   4.380 -1.524  0.757        53
62           Ito Smith       RB   2018  ATL  89     3.596     4.809    -0.786   3.747 -1.581  0.008        64
63   LeGarrette Blount       RB   2018  DET 154     2.714     4.481    -0.977   3.935 -1.612 -0.343        67
64      Elijah McGuire       RB   2018  NYJ  88     3.045     4.282    -0.541   5.040 -1.616  0.533        58
65        Rex Burkhead       RB   2018   NE  56     3.304     4.894    -0.894   2.781 -1.637 -0.151        65
66        LeSean McCoy       RB   2018  BUF 157     3.242     4.464    -1.016   4.249 -1.694 -0.337        68
67         Tarik Cohen       RB   2018  CHI  94     4.362     4.447    -0.586   5.765 -1.775  0.603        60
68       Corey Clement       RB   2018  PHI  68     3.809     4.282    -0.967   4.399 -2.034  0.100        66
69     Giovani Bernard       HB   2018  CIN  56     3.768     4.444    -1.078   4.907 -2.389  0.234        69

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