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@pukpr
Created November 2, 2023 00:06
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Analytic Tidal Forcing
-- Conventional tidal series summation or superposition of cycles
function Tide_Sum (Template : in Data_Pairs;
Constituents : in Long_Periods_Amp_Phase;
Periods : in Long_Periods;
Ref_Time : in Long_Float := 0.0;
Scaling : in Long_Float := 1.0;
Cos_Phase : in Boolean := True;
Year_Len : in Long_Float := Year_Length;
Integ: in Long_Float := 0.0
) return Data_Pairs is
Pi : Long_Float := Ada.Numerics.Pi;
Time : Long_Float;
Res : Data_Pairs := Template;
Yr : Long_Float := Year_Len;
Drac : Long_Float := 2.0*pi*Yr/Draconic;
Trop : Long_Float := 2.0*pi*Yr/Tropical;
Anom : Long_Float := 2.0*pi*Yr/Anomalistic;
Nodal : Long_Float := Drac-Trop;
Peri : Long_Float := (Trop-Anom)/2.0;
K1 : Long_Float := Constituents(1).Value; -- -0.06
K2 : Long_Float := Constituents(2).Value; -- -0.064
TA : Long_Float := Constituents(3).Value; -- 0.144
TP : Long_Float := Constituents(4).Value; -- 0.7
AA : Long_Float := Constituents(5).Value; -- -0.718
AP : Long_Float := Constituents(6).Value; -- -0.62
T2A : Long_Float := Constituents(7).Value; -- 0.16
T2P : Long_Float := Constituents(8).Value; -- 0.29
DSA : Long_Float := Constituents(9).Value; -- 0.001 ----
DSP : Long_Float := Constituents(10).Value; -- -0.0129
A2A : Long_Float := Constituents(11).Value; -- -0.062
SYA : Long_Float := Constituents(12).Value; -- 0.362
SYP : Long_Float := Constituents(13).Value; -- 0.96
EA : Long_Float := Constituents(14).Value; -- 0.284
EP : Long_Float := Constituents(15).Value; -- 4.0
E2A : Long_Float := Constituents(16).Value; -- -0.0227
T2AYA : Long_Float := Constituents(17).Value; -- 0.04 ---
T2AYP : Long_Float := Constituents(18).Value; -- 0
Q1 : Long_Float := Constituents(19).Value; -- -0.01
Q2 : Long_Float := Constituents(20).Value; -- 9.47
DA : Long_Float := Constituents(21).Value; -- -0.087
DP : Long_Float := Constituents(22).Value; -- 0.17
K3 : Long_Float := Constituents(23).Value; -- -0.088
NA : Long_Float := Constituents(24).Value; -- 0.1
NP : Long_Float := Constituents(25).Value; -- 9.6
PA : Long_Float := Constituents(26).Value; -- 0.05
PP : Long_Float := Constituents(27).Value; -- -6
TN2A : Long_Float := Constituents(28).Value; -- 0 ---
TN2P : Long_Float := Constituents(29).Value;
function Ds is new rsin (DA, Drac, DP); -- = A*sin(2*Drac*(x+p));
function Ts is new rsin (TA, Trop, TP); -- = A*sin(2*Trop*(x+p))
function DsB is new gsin (DSA, 2.0*Drac, DSP); -- = A*sin(2*Drac*(x+p));
function TsB is new gsin (TN2A, 2.0*Trop, TN2P); -- = A*sin(2*Trop*(x+p))
function T2s is new gsin (T2AYA, Trop+Drac, T2AYP); -- = A*sin((Trop+Drac)*(x+p))
function As is new gsin (AA, Anom, AP); -- = A*sin(Anom*(x+p))
-- function Semi is new gsin(SA, 4.0*Pi, SP); -- = A*sin(4*pi*(x+p))
function Evect is new gsin(EA, 2.0*Trop-Anom-4.0*Pi, EP); -- = A*sin((2*Trop-Anom-4*pi)*(x+p))
function Syn is new gsin(SYA, 2.0*Trop-4.0*Pi, SYP); -- = A*sin((2*Trop-4*pi)*(x+p))
--function Annual is new gsin(YA, 2.0*Pi, YP); -- = A*cos(2*pi*(x+p))
function N is new gsin (NA, Nodal, NP); -- = A*sin(Nodal*(x+p))
--function N2 is new gsin (N2A, Nodal/2.0, N2P); -- = A*sin(Nodal/2.0*(x+p))
function P is new gsin (PA, Peri, PP); -- = A*sin(Peri*(x+p))
-- # Define the model
function Model (Time : in Long_Float) return Long_Float is
MM : Long_Float := As(Time, 0.0);
Msm : Long_Float := Evect(Time, 0.0);
Mfp : Long_Float := T2s(Time, + A2A*Mm + E2A*Msm);
Mf : Long_Float := Ts(Time, + A2A*Mm + E2A*Msm, T2A) + TsB(Time, + A2A*Mm + E2A*Msm);
Mfd : Long_Float := Ds(Time, + A2A*Mm + E2A*Msm, T2P) + DsB(Time, + A2A*Mm + E2A*Msm);
Msf : Long_Float := Syn(Time, + Q1*(Mf+Mfd+Mfp+Q2*Mf*Mfd)); -- + Q2*Mfp
begin
return Mf + Mfd + Mfp + Q2*Mf*Mfd + Msm + Msf + N(Time, 0.0) + P(Time, 0.0) + -- + Semi(Time) + Annual(Time) + N2(Time)
As(Time, + K1*(Mf+Mfd+Mfp+Q2*Mf*Mfd) + K2*Mm + K3*Msf);
end Model;
begin
for I in Template'Range loop
Time := Template(I).Date - Ref_Time;
declare
TF : Long_Float := 0.0;
begin
Tf := Model (Time);
Res(I) := (Time, Scaling * TF);
end;
end loop;
return Res;
end Tide_Sum;
@pukpr
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pukpr commented Nov 2, 2023

AMO PDO

image
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image

image

@pukpr
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pukpr commented Nov 3, 2023

Common forcing

image

   0.00068421140 :offset:
  -0.00000000000 :bg:
   0.00000000000 :impA:
   0.00000000000 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
  -0.16649699438:delA:
   0.22988048754:delB:
   0.00471189161:asym:
   0.03139442717:ann1:
  -0.06557414545:ann2:
  -0.01152631791:sem1:
  -3.34583222604:sem2:
   0.00003128177:year:
   0.01378790665:IR:
   0.00114161170 :mA:
   0.00796416217 :mP:
   0.00023948805 :shiftT:
   1.14580183364 :init:
---- Tidal ----
   9.10846048884,    4.79674632863 1
  29.53063097907,   -0.00825010302 2
  27.09267692660,    0.23105098038 3
   7.08840414559,    0.24453022714 4
   6.85248390316,    7.54048663277 5
  13.60611040750,   -0.65270611717 6
  13.66083077700,    1.52654140813 7
3396.73824406533,   82.12737300910 8
   9.12068919638,    0.12554311384 9
  13.77727494300,  -14.09278746613 10
6793.47648813065,   -0.28937107585 11
  27.55454988600,    5.86588812967 12
  27.66676714572,    0.24368355387 13
  27.44323926226,   -1.00561843622 14
1616.30271425126,  -34.47819650950 15
   6.85940288609,    0.33823296830 16
   7.09580800648,    0.35390155924 17
   9.55688266891,   -0.04704812439 18
   9.13295078376,    0.36913220393 19
2190.35004466729,    4.81757393909 20
  27.21222081500,    0.00328575196 21
   9.18484996200,    2.40759843036 22
  14.76531548953,   -0.43992451247 23
  31.81203890918,   -0.87539426651 24
   9.54345718628,   26.65606728084 25
  13.63341568476,   -0.99567209871 26
  26.98505934729,   -6.06495194154 27
 365.24991968177,   -0.17870313833 28
 182.62495984088,    6.98347501664 29
 121.74997322726,    0.38618235917 30
   9.61372675997,    4.37683120750 31
3232.60542850251,    0.00000000000 32
---- LTE ----
  -0.00009311801 :trend:
   0.00002611382 :accel:
  -0.00522616735 :K0:
  -0.14514787453 :level:
   0.32009016435,    0.54697371389,    1.86726009442 0
   0.44972153577,    0.30323150420,    2.34317884116 0
  -0.90264338137,    0.47546715608,    1.45738085120-1
  -1.32228897512,    0.13335215181,   -0.43341880826-1
   0.78739678516,    0.19035969093,   -2.22691560187 0
   2.68986428141,    0.17999198713,    2.63175199395 2
  -1.78598298868,    0.23264063713,   -2.28292276769-1
  -3.69623088793,    0.12023633608,    1.50928934287-2
   1.58317312524,    0.29117378961,   -2.62709424001 1
CC   0.8028276540   0.3620296156   3 1
   0.00000000000:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong>  ..\io\restore.bat fixed_mod_nino34_mm2_wow2

for AMO, the sign flips

image

   0.00075320408 :offset:
  -0.00000000000 :bg:
   0.00000000000 :impA:
   0.00000000000 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
   0.14436509020:delA:
   0.22988048754:delB:
   0.00348007098:asym:
  -0.33886913057:ann1:
  -0.28230623403:ann2:
  -0.07123784594:sem1:
  -4.22606318776:sem2:
  -0.00003005913:year:
  -0.23098202330:IR:
   0.00113238731 :mA:
   0.00740326225 :mP:
   0.00026616438 :shiftT:
   1.04235729347 :init:
---- Tidal ----
   9.10846048884,    4.78542417137 1
  29.53063138004,   -0.00707907165 2
  27.09267692660,    0.23091074771 3
   7.08840419180,    0.23978159488 4
   6.85248390316,    7.52070681685 5
  13.66083077700,    1.52493805198 7
3396.73824406533,   82.30787031970 8
   9.12068919638,    0.12430725522 9
  13.77727494300,  -14.08132422862 10
6793.47648813065,   -0.28941073543 11
  27.55454988600,    5.84525294196 12
  27.66676714572,    0.25005653510 13
  27.44323926226,   -1.00587043650 14
1616.30271425126,  -34.47927116247 15
   6.85940288609,    0.33702097129 16
   7.09580805279,    0.35372036101 17Exited  3
   9.55688275290,   -0.04830997607 18
   9.13295078376,    0.36451520288 19
2190.35004466729,    4.82181202880 20
  27.21222081500,    0.00329281261 21
   9.18484996200,    2.41053504191 22
  14.76531569002,   -0.44023741174 23
  31.81203983982,   -0.90974008673 24
   9.54345727004,   26.62936523772 25
  13.63341568476,   -0.98243798845 26
  26.98505934729,   -6.07779017594 27
 365.24985834087,   -0.17816996305 28
 182.62492917044,    6.98911201692 29
 121.74995278029,    0.58635153564 30
   9.61372684496,    4.29660830252 31
3232.60542850251,    0.00000000000 32
---- LTE ----
   0.03472238923 :trend:
  -0.00018026892 :accel:
  -0.63337574449 :K0:
 -65.12286197755 :level:
  -0.23410778929,    0.44966551077,    2.75206668205 0
  -0.45470626304,    0.43195561204,    2.94516730846 0
   0.79345261655,    0.49486733957,    1.05884091084 0
   1.32706556009,    0.51841881843,   -1.01458533212 1
  -0.62787700000,    0.41987711065,   -1.34219700741 0
   2.64641432646,    0.59904249037,   -2.56200899256 2
  -1.80401922152,    0.45115580412,   -2.40989809063-1
  -3.21594126628,    0.69620645526,   -1.25571814425-2
   2.01382995266,    0.38136002170,    0.89108134654 1
   1.59072718589,    0.39074443454,    2.06614338264 1
CC   0.7972554678   0.1402796336   8 1
   0.00000000000:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong>  ..\io\backup.bat fixed_mod_nino34_mm2_amo_flipped_wow_relax2


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pukpr commented Nov 5, 2023

Common forcing

The algorithm is to switch between AMO and PDO . copying the best LTE parameters until the tidal forcing converges to a stable time-series.

image

  -0.00000000000 :offset:
  -0.00000000000 :bg:
   0.00000000000 :impA:
   0.00000000000 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
   0.37661716835:delA:
   0.04731461377:delB:
   0.02364459454:asym:
   0.01524922289:ann1:
  -5.87334870303:ann2:
  -0.00416916178:sem1:
  -1.74649370145:sem2:
  -0.00295908372:year:
   0.17670094737:IR:
   0.00000000000 :mA:
   0.00113964218 :mP:
   0.00709775749 :shiftT:
  -0.00000000000 :init:
---- Tidal ----
   9.10846048884,   -0.23140908841 1
  29.53065052666,   -1.35971779590 2
  27.09267692660,    0.12425055419 3
   7.08840639814,   -7.37702234049 4
   6.85248390316,   -0.63651639820 5
  13.66083077700,   15.04489695886 7
3396.73824406533,    0.90064514553 8
   9.12068919638,    0.00269028823 9
  13.77727494300,   -0.24813590625 10
6793.47648813065,    0.55553940694 11
  27.55454988600,    3.72921340481 12
  27.66676714572,   -0.01965352868 13
  27.44323926226,   -0.14447941502 14
1616.30271425126,   -1.57641143031 15
   6.85940288609,   -1.92433686746 16
   7.09581026374,   -0.63806866036 17
   9.55688676350,   -3.25073403771 18
   9.13295078376,   -0.11355788168 19
2190.35004466729,  156.02759541042 20
  27.21222081500,   -0.00700649427 21
   9.18484996200,    0.57422188330 22
  14.76532526333,    3.00952293282 23
  31.81208427838,    0.20223685910 24
   9.54346126938,    0.57279866387 25
  13.63341568476,   -0.17978763807 26
  26.98505934729, -180.76840941753 27
 365.24692931628,   -5.26522271194 28
 182.62346465814,    6.83865551647 29
 121.74897643876,    0.79486495773 30
   9.61373090341,    0.45534635519 31
3232.60542850251,  -24.45602744023 32
---- LTE ----
  -0.03314057368 :trend:
   0.00023511278 :accel:
   0.27193209782 :K0:
  61.90100435265 :level:
  -0.10598520864,    0.88926770002,   -2.99725505602 0
  -0.79683635675,    0.17565101361,    2.36558325764 0
   0.93612772797,    0.17885257822,   -1.80840539203 0
  -3.24110424833,    0.26349273006,    1.62011602172 0
   1.26018269141,    0.38381266868,    2.08341023417 0
   5.40512829781,    0.26812133033,    1.05462497567 0
  2.12754091678,    0.26701834474,   -3.06201412135 0
   6.36753867868,    0.49440246809,   -3.01344199784 0
  -3.37304365988,    0.30106224126,    2.94344464745 0
   4.00466774835,    0.40096783339,   -1.46203466743 0
 -17.94389891155,    0.48152039701,   -0.83972904219 1
CC   0.7954938326   0.0125884414   4 1
   0.00000000000:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong>  ..\io\backup.bat 130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1

image

  -0.00000000000 :offset:
  -0.00000000000 :bg:
   0.00000000000 :impA:
   0.00000000000 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
   0.37686387292:delA:
   0.04731461377:delB:
   0.02492941178:asym:
  -0.33311053453:ann1:
  -6.49152236102:ann2:
  -0.08253262691:sem1:
   1.98139290767:sem2:
  -0.00296063031:year:
  -0.09367363103:IR:
   0.00000000000 :mA:
  -0.00114146420 :mP:
   0.00709885792 :shiftT:
  -0.00000000000 :init:
---- Tidal ----
   9.10846048884,   -0.22200932806 1
  29.53065053677,   -1.38417177243 2
  27.09267692660,    0.12408868151 3
   7.08840639931,   -7.37654584830 4
   6.85248390316,   -0.63598808929 5
  13.60611040750,    0.28554824557 6
  13.66083077700,   15.01177338789 7
3396.73824406533,    0.89664086501 8
   9.12068919638,    0.00268711864 9
  13.77727494300,   -0.25293806664 10
6793.47648813065,    0.55421920050 11
  27.55454988600,    3.73055466288 12
  27.66676714572,   -0.01900704613 13
  27.44323926226,   -0.14589638430 14
1616.30271425126,   -1.56439993257 15
   6.85940288609,   -1.96832018234 16
   7.09581026491,   -0.65873275887 17
   9.55688676562,   -3.21781733757 18
   9.13295078376,   -0.11171328561 19
2190.35004466729,  156.21082724055 20
  27.21222081500,   -0.00702066091 21
   9.18484996200,    0.56979201512 22
  14.76532526839,    3.02062599146 23
  31.81208430185,    0.20835878109 24
   9.54346127149,    0.55519023972 25
  13.63341568476,   -0.17965655078 26
  26.98505934729, -180.74060942340 27
 365.24692776969,   -5.23844360474 28
 182.62346388484,    6.83906010597 29
 121.74897592323,    0.77913620425 30
   9.61373090555,    0.47397096013 31
3232.60542850251,  -24.40217469988 32
---- LTE ----
  -0.09295382725 :trend:
   0.00078061193 :accel:
   0.47329816322 :K0:
 174.02002765561 :level:
  -0.10320107481,    1.58966740634,    1.83901106535 0
   0.27623913164,    0.39349074083,    0.88834036923 0
   1.17758858825,    0.54500562724,    0.66208945933 0
   3.92014545700,    0.40734427590,   -2.33595838774 0
  -1.76779669965,    0.89140390921,   -2.99843594228 0
   3.00008181765,    0.39807829427,    1.39668375474 0
  -1.58568466752,    0.52825919826,    2.59777187139 0
  -2.25999925873,    0.53661746116,    0.46826549553 0
 -17.48776480647,    0.59970958747,   -1.83398178088-1
  13.37688720766,    0.40163825456,    1.66135620623 1
CC   0.7983348858   0.6042876074   8 1
   0.00000000000:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong>  ..\io\restore.bat 130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1

image

image

image

image

@pukpr
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pukpr commented Nov 7, 2023

PNA

image

The bg term in this case is a derivative of the model added to the model Model = Model + bg * dModel/dt

  -0.00000000000 :offset:
  -0.25303634377 :bg:
   0.00000000000 :impA:
   0.00000000000 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
   0.38559480071:delA:
   0.04684529902:delB:
   0.00450926254:asym:
   0.46261383101:ann1:
   1.93312514425:ann2:
   0.15731777655:sem1:
   4.88381725860:sem2:
  -0.00298596155:year:
  -0.22411697330:IR:
   0.00000000000 :mA:
   0.00118214397 :mP:
   0.00701725549 :shiftT:
  -0.00000000000 :init:
---- Tidal ----
   9.10846048884,   -0.33025583244 1
  29.53065070236,   -1.27939002706 2
  27.09267692660,    0.12304878207 3
   7.08840641839,   -7.32702366510 4
   6.85248390316,   -0.63491130712 5
  13.60611040750,    0.28458743994 6
3396.73824406533,    0.90223973432 8
   9.12068919638,    0.00269406881 9
  13.77727494300,   -0.27007544104 10
6793.47648813065,    0.56894175880 11
  27.55454988600,    3.69855429786 12
  27.66676714572,   -0.02431325611 13
1616.30271425126,   -1.61838763194 15
   6.85940288609,   -2.03875261311 16
   7.09581028403,   -0.61609359577 17
   9.55688680031,   -3.31730746691 18
   9.13295078376,   -0.11359466831 19
2190.35004466729,  155.67284244358 20
  27.21222081500,   -0.00699558181 21
   9.18484996200,    0.56740617193 22
  14.76532535118,    3.00852681832 23
  31.81208468617,    0.24317804840 24
   9.54346130608,    0.56117323108 25
  13.63341568476,   -0.18011775194 26
  26.98505934729, -180.78100517827 27
 365.24690243845,   -5.34812191525 28
 182.62345121923,    6.84012377035 29
 121.74896747948,    0.77820726001 30
   9.61373094065,    0.81654705297 31
3232.60542850251,  -24.51986972438 32
---- LTE ----
  -0.00700580244 :trend:
  -0.00000403339 :accel:
   1.52807864225 :K0:
   7.84824995632 :level:
  -3.07576049925,    1.11052103081,    3.05537555653-1
  11.20430563191,    2.49516215624,   -0.08189961583 3
  -6.45515132860,    1.90992450344,   -0.59348798843-2
  -2.03173153997,    1.50800810234,    1.92632822785-1
  -0.07676957246,    4.68013339277,    1.90728361129 0
 -83.22049976183,    1.79897814039,    2.97730546505-24
  24.13037254271,    2.07364485716,    2.04400883742 7
  68.22764047596,    0.83804281810,   -0.62354953965 19
 -61.14521580643,    1.58479402285,   -0.87580898317-17
   7.12121247213,    2.09541185929,   -2.58189272688 2
  65.11339959561,    1.62192450827,    3.06410851569 19
   2.30916272071,    1.41435013472,    2.48975414345 1
   3.50674753206,    1.63715544794,    0.84397529764 1
CC   0.6925816952   0.0247325322   7 1
   0.00000000000:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong>  ..\io\backup.bat 130_year_2nd_pna_long_pt69
   0.44509715779 -- Referencing dLOD
pna_long.dat for Thread # 1 2

Darwin Cross-Validation

Very good prior to 1880

image

The bg term in this case is a derivative of the model added to the model Model = Model + bg * dModel/dt

  -0.00000000000 :offset:
  -0.72834171690 :bg:
   0.00000000000 :impA:
   0.00000000000 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
   0.38079782337:delA:
   0.04731370355:delB:
   0.01323586720:asym:
  -0.09650440142:ann1:
   7.16948970984:ann2:
  -0.04597012936:sem1:
  -4.61125327479:sem2:
  -0.00296229491:year:
   0.06663813014:IR:
   0.00000000000 :mA:
  -0.00111570294 :mP:
   0.00711914873 :shiftT:
  -0.00000000000 :init:
---- Tidal ----
   9.10846048884,   -0.29063818540 1
  29.53065054766,   -1.31634844233 2
  27.09267692660,    0.12348406509 3
   7.08840640056,   -7.32345959149 4
   6.85248390316,   -0.62643029338 5
  13.60611040750,    0.28100733941 6
  13.66083077700,   14.96508496285 7
3396.73824406533,    0.90063055668 8
   9.12068919638,    0.00272678120 9
  13.77727494300,   -0.26510840756 10
6793.47648813065,    0.56584921206 11
  27.55454988600,    3.71680992235 12
  27.44323926226,   -0.14823472531 14
1616.30271425126,   -1.57401653971 15
   6.85940288609,   -1.98978326244 16
   7.09581026617,   -0.59092107289 17
   9.55688676790,   -3.25067430883 18
2190.35004466729,  155.85863835682 20
  27.21222081500,   -0.00699865958 21
   9.18484996200,    0.56939595736 22
  14.76532527383,    3.01801445543 23
  31.81208432710,    0.20786842378 24
   9.54346127376,    0.58516965722 25
  13.63341568476,   -0.17999820891 26
  26.98505934729, -180.75531128230 27
 365.24692610509,   -5.33296839909 28
 182.62346305255,    6.83733074732 29
 121.74897536836,    0.76925970893 30
   9.61373090786,    0.60661808868 31
3232.60542850251,  -24.50290234445 32
---- LTE ----
   0.00000000000 :trend:
   0.00000000000 :accel:
  -0.02956197411 :K0:
   0.33533540958 :level:
  -0.11471661143,    0.29951780110,    2.61570471977 0
   0.79914402872,    0.26929751189,    1.06656431844-1
   2.15554677654,    0.24427782582,   -0.44965109627-1
   4.84835814676,    0.18597719403,    2.38457460743-3
  -1.27161108080,    0.24964625923,   -1.15611660100 1
  -2.96889608118,    0.35159971463,   -1.63954750226 2
  -2.29584880864,    0.45810501624,    0.44758981410 2
  -6.32416864214,    0.38754526912,   -2.62543247999 4
   3.08883395178,    0.25693016629,    2.47293625018-2
   4.01760985497,    0.41910446920,    0.00895212552-3
  -1.44471974749,    0.20754267908,   -1.58129105953 1
CC   0.7201093256   0.4646540686   6 1
   0.00000000000:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong>  ..\io\backup.bat 130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_1865a_WOWWOW

image

  -0.00000000000 :offset:
  -0.64310177952 :bg:
   0.00000000000 :impA:
   0.00000000000 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
   0.38079355668:delA:
   0.04731370355:delB:
   0.01322182482:asym:
  -0.10060730694:ann1:
   7.14957138586:ann2:
  -0.04625942463:sem1:
  -4.60938274802:sem2:
  -0.00296229362:year:
   0.07319794661:IR:
   0.00000000000 :mA:
  -0.00111569824 :mP:
   0.00711981025 :shiftT:
  -0.00000000000 :init:
---- Tidal ----
   9.10846048884,   -0.29077755361 1
  29.53065054765,   -1.31608126008 2
  27.09267692660,    0.12348465741 3
   7.08840640056,   -7.32348663142 4
   6.85248390316,   -0.62642673627 5
  13.60611040750,    0.28100232919 6
  13.66083077700,   14.96513738093 7
3396.73824406533,    0.90063460266 8
   9.12068919638,    0.00272676796 9
  13.77727494300,   -0.26510830441 10
  27.55454988600,    3.71679113060 12
  27.44323926226,   -0.14824265522 14
1616.30271425126,   -1.57406139867 15
   6.85940288609,   -1.98967344805 16
   7.09581026617,   -0.59114413356 17
   9.55688676790,   -3.25122430126 18
   9.13295078376,   -0.11306532256 19
2190.35004466729,  155.85920687067 20
  27.21222081500,   -0.00699869947 21
   9.18484996200,    0.56938647994 22
  14.76532527382,    3.01796946729 23
  31.81208432708,    0.20773251864 24
   9.54346127376,    0.58466006362 25
  13.63341568476,   -0.17999838467 26
  26.98505934729, -180.75520892037 27
 365.24692610638,   -5.33303043754 28
 182.62346305319,    6.83732940337 29
 121.74897536879,    0.76914986992 30
   9.61373090786,    0.60559293689 31
3232.60542850251,  -24.50305528040 32
---- LTE ----
   0.00000000000 :trend:
   0.00000000000 :accel:
  -0.01045141653 :K0:
   0.25489015970 :level:
  -0.10946385017,    0.32679003319,    2.49543759833 0
  -0.80064717240,    0.26711216348,    1.96454988671 0
   2.16646073257,    0.19264418404,   -0.72203876270 0
   4.85455556521,    0.22338235770,    2.42515304669 0
   1.26919392059,    0.30015937696,   -1.58957600910 0
   2.96856023227,    0.30368682322,   -1.46592389885 0
  -2.29444294339,    0.41111743406,    0.29311594937 0
   6.32773160473,    0.32608255028,   -0.65246002934 0
   3.08671249088,    0.32559724539,    2.42159493401 0
  -4.02205123429,    0.38901874986,   -2.88854597119 0
  -1.61500482663,    0.18067344681,   -0.25566158630 0
-896.29970196959,    0.30621056090,    0.61672574755 1
-52881.68241620602,    0.25041415147,    2.88753476664 59
CC   0.7835308528   0.4102081433   7 1
   0.00000000000:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong>  ..\io\backup.bat 130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_1865a_WOWWOWhi

alternate
image

  -0.00000000000 :offset:
  -0.93070575480 :bg:
   0.00000000000 :impA:
   0.00000000000 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
   0.38112862909:delA:
   0.04731370355:delB:
   0.01330022890:asym:
  -0.09974232855:ann1:
   7.16741564220:ann2:
  -0.05487733253:sem1:
  -4.61792950031:sem2:
  -0.00296269718:year:
   0.13358432743:IR:
   0.00000000000 :mA:
  -0.00111207490 :mP:
   0.00711757226 :shiftT:
  -0.00000000000 :init:
---- Tidal ----
   9.10846048884,   -0.28826990374 1
  29.53065055028,   -1.32027613641 2
  27.09267692660,    0.12344541189 3
   7.08840640086,   -7.32410721934 4
   6.85248390316,   -0.62426374249 5
  13.60611040750,    0.28009223138 6
  13.66083077700,   14.96194051668 7
   9.12068919638,    0.00272599377 9
  13.77727494300,   -0.26688554264 10
6793.47648813065,    0.56658011808 11
  27.55454988600,    3.71745751763 12
  27.66676714572,   -0.02149277829 13
  27.44323926226,   -0.14807137310 14
1616.30271425126,   -1.57354642628 15
   6.85940288609,   -1.98604605265 16
   7.09581026647,   -0.58611852549 17
   9.55688676845,   -3.24839908056 18
   9.13295078376,   -0.11304114085 19
2190.35004466729,  155.84894285597 20
  27.21222081500,   -0.00699866395 21
   9.18484996200,    0.56872742713 22
  14.76532527514,    3.01687638452 23
  31.81208433321,    0.20738866317 24
   9.54346127431,    0.58553103582 25
  13.63341568476,   -0.17999266219 26
  26.98505934729, -180.75647207089 27
 365.24692570282,   -5.33826034314 28
 182.62346285141,    6.83704698702 29
 121.74897523427,    0.76598307268 30
   9.61373090841,    0.60469273052 31
3232.60542850251,  -24.50013107903 32
---- LTE ----
   0.00000000000 :trend:
   0.00000000000 :accel:
   0.03228523916 :K0:
   0.09040155595 :level:
  -0.09854669806,    0.42076925987,    2.40130529767 0
  -0.80321861656,    0.24826147089,    2.30085229407 0
  -2.15858429960,    0.23933019371,   -2.44175286589 0
  -4.86346083581,    0.18470261086,    1.23092600894 0
   1.26921506516,    0.22129005971,   -2.02750481147 0
  -2.97264437969,    0.30406291100,   -1.29174988430 0
  -2.29644346360,    0.43717341060,    0.71703246160 0
   6.33089205668,    0.40370719137,   -1.23808795449 0
  -3.08829295913,    0.27201963507,    0.89654407641 0
  -4.02242419159,    0.43358850018,   -2.65215734386 0
  -1.42872521166,    0.16484239896,   -1.86450764202 0
-899.22000757323,    0.29757384200,   -2.34939333729 1
-53053.98044682062,    0.20876683137,    1.91453554742 59
CC   0.7778303873   0.4385664807   8 1
   0.00000000000:dLOD:Main exiting, flushing other tasks
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong>  ..\io\backup.bat 130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_1865a_WOWWOWhi1

Expanded view
image

@pukpr
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pukpr commented Nov 8, 2023

N=5 common-mode

image
image
image
image
image

DARWIN ..\io\restore.bat 130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slope

PDO ..\io\restore.bat
130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1

AMO ..\io\restore.bat
130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1

IOD West ..\io\restore.bat 130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2_iod_w1_slope

IOD East ..\io\restore.bat 130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2_iod_w1_slope_east_try2_slope_pt81

C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong

-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 4 16:16 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 4 16:20 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 4 16:45 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt

-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 4 16:54 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 4 18:26 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1

-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 4 18:42 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 4 19:10 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 4 22:29 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 5 00:05 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1

-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 5 14:57 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 5 15:20 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2032 Nov 5 16:28 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slope
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2078 Nov 5 16:45 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2

-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2078 Nov 5 16:52 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2_iod_w
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2078 Nov 5 17:19 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2_iod_w1
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2078 Nov 5 17:30 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2_iod_w1_slope

-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2078 Nov 5 17:55 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2_iod_w1_slope_east
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2078 Nov 5 18:15 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2_iod_w1_slope_east_try2
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2078 Nov 5 18:43 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2_iod_w1_slope_east_try2_slope
-rw-r--r-- 1 pp 197609 2078 Nov 5 20:34 eqlong/enso_opt.exe.par.130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2_iod_w1_slope_east_try2_slope_pt81

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pukpr commented Nov 8, 2023

Darwin

High frequency terms

image

  -0.00000000000 :offset:
  -0.69246368223 :bg:
   0.00000000000 :impA:
   0.00000000000 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
   0.38001663945:delA:
   0.04731370355:delB:
   0.01335762510:asym:
  -0.09668832108:ann1:
   7.20498742699:ann2:
  -0.04802974486:sem1:
  -4.57721943544:sem2:
  -0.00296162558:year:
   0.07470627164:IR:
   0.00000000000 :mA:
  -0.00111820688 :mP:
   0.00711849828 :shiftT:
  -0.00000000000 :init:
---- Tidal ----
   9.10846048884,   -0.29133661745 1
  29.53065054328,   -1.31032210843 2
  27.09267692660,    0.12354502823 3
   7.08840640006,   -7.32431988355 4
   6.85248390316,   -0.62867991759 5
  13.60611040750,    0.28182442336 6
  13.66083077700,   14.96559309119 7
3396.73824406533,    0.90159198938 8
   9.12068919638,    0.00272599735 9
  13.77727494300,   -0.26164797713 10
6793.47648813065,    0.56466448494 11
  27.55454988600,    3.71540844820 12
  27.66676714572,   -0.02208470761 13
  27.44323926226,   -0.14858488959 14
1616.30271425126,   -1.57442821129 15
   6.85940288609,   -1.99087463366 16
   7.09581026566,   -0.59717712964 17
   9.55688676698,   -3.26482856710 18
   9.13295078376,   -0.11310149039 19
2190.35004466729,  155.86506684999 20
  27.21222081500,   -0.00699824168 21
   9.18484996200,    0.57002423329 22
  14.76532527164,    3.01901246301 23
  31.81208431695,    0.20855108194 24
   9.54346127285,    0.57181436287 25
  13.63341568476,   -0.17997880475 26
  26.98505934729, -180.75392041420 27
 365.24692677442,   -5.32239565171 28
 182.62346338721,    6.83759651910 29
 121.74897559147,    0.78341052594 30
   9.61373090693,    0.60011715314 31
3232.60542850251,  -24.49950513852 32
---- LTE ----
  -0.00623077989 :trend:
   0.00003059982 :accel:
  -0.04797122787 :K0:
  12.37559816241 :level:
   0.14549802539,    0.16996920827,   -0.51593388830 0
   0.80794068918,    0.28417572945,   -0.85695454070 0
   2.14201062918,    0.27911750638,    1.56793945101 0
  -4.86360037923,    0.20988714635,   -0.70110767611 0
  -1.27490407734,    0.26201785016,    1.87916410378 0
   2.94966556009,    0.34100392569,   -1.05858306023 0
  -2.30453059031,    0.47189167868,   -0.17995574136 0
   6.31110671797,    0.32595745399,   -1.72056331158 0
  -3.10073336751,    0.31931373808,    1.87786488577 0
  -4.00948372794,    0.42315526212,   -0.65326874858 0
  -1.44624710607,    0.14818542728,    1.75864704447 0
  -1.78111590751,    0.14051151892,   -0.01120265112 0
-894.28889938506,    0.35121701826,   -3.03327623803 1
-52763.04506371844,    0.25657451209,   -2.77156276127 59

CC   0.8038627136   0.2594480165   5 1
   0.00000000000:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong>  ..\io\restore.bat 130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1_pdo_lockt_relax_extra1_nino34_der_wow1_darwin_pt2_slopeplus2

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pukpr commented Nov 11, 2023

AMO prediction

image

  -0.33045945085 :offset:
  -0.42132010636 :bg:
   4.15362205615 :impA:
   0.43215012024 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
   0.37688229113:delA:
   0.04731461377:delB:
   0.02504912914:asym:
  -0.33700267001:ann1:
  -6.47744778804:ann2:
  -0.06766374487:sem1:
   1.96885766471:sem2:
  -0.00296073076:year:
   0.02173436466:IR:
   0.00000000000 :mA:
   0.00114122577 :mP:
   0.00709886446 :shiftT:
  -0.00000000000 :init:
---- Tidal ----
   9.10846048884,   -0.22199719134 1
  29.53065053743,   -1.38416898508 2
  27.09267692660,    0.12408858564 3
   7.08840639938,   -7.37655224426 4
   6.85248390316,   -0.63598735794 5
  13.60611040750,    0.28554936998 6
  13.66083077700,   15.01177338789 7
3396.73824406533,    0.89663899165 8
   9.12068919638,    0.00268711864 9
6793.47648813065,    0.55422371202 11
  27.55454988600,    3.73055466288 12
  27.66676714572,   -0.01900705629 13
  27.44323926226,   -0.14589218893 14
1616.30271425126,   -1.56439453348 15
   6.85940288609,   -1.96844419755 16
   7.09581026499,   -0.65872437487 17
   9.55688676576,   -3.21781733757 18
   9.13295078376,   -0.11171426764 19
2190.35004466729,  156.21082724055 20
  27.21222081500,   -0.00702066091 21
   9.18484996200,    0.56979449476 22
  14.76532526872,    3.02063176673 23
  31.81208430337,    0.20835423705 24
   9.54346127163,    0.55519661295 25
  13.63341568476,   -0.17965634562 26
  26.98505934729, -180.74060942340 27
 365.24692766924,   -5.23844360474 28
 182.62346383462,    6.83906010597 29
 121.74897588975,    0.77912830087 30
   9.61373090569,    0.47395208342 31
3232.60542850251,  -24.40217743847 32
---- LTE ----
  -0.09809491950 :trend:
   0.00081032700 :accel:
   0.41249454859 :K0:
 183.97710821612 :level:
   0.11791321798,    1.40382109203,    0.96170358617 0
   0.25559838787,    0.43602776288,    1.26251943739 0
   1.17966429326,    0.65255029313,    0.59683015838 0
   3.91702339483,    0.44503267930,   -2.43146936168 0
  -1.76746688225,    0.93772874989,   -2.97845658452 0
  -3.00859600132,    0.43182615019,    1.91186462147 0
  -1.59509658896,    0.55959849984,    2.97402045801 0
   2.25841116676,    0.44974467396,    2.83841008218 0
 -17.48606161790,    0.68457757885,   -1.68393916956 0
 -13.37300525839,    0.34019129919,    1.49290501936 0
  -0.66467212242,    0.32121977573,    2.07913328749 0
 876.25080736031,    0.28233355038,   -2.28588387762 1
42936.28956065520,    0.24207216321,    0.38677843531 49
28916.27664289024,    0.30818655567,    2.31786679792 33
12267.51130304434,    0.22391537159,    0.44529406066 14

CC   0.8258724478   0.1926826412   1 1
   0.00000000000:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GEMa\GeoEnergyMath\eqlong> ../io/backup 130_year_cal_amo_harm_nino34_relax_pdo_wow4_amo_try2_relax_pdo_lockt_relax_amo_lockt_relax1pt826

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