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Pendle Liquidity Fragmentation

Maturity	Underlying	TVL ($M)	Avg Daily Volume ($M)	Spread (bps)
Dec 2025	stETH	800	120	8
Mar 2026	sUSDe	400	50	12
Jun 2026	aUSDC	120	15	20
Sep 2026	stETH	30	3	45
Others (40+ markets)	Various	<200	<10	>50

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Three Futures

Scenario	Probability	USDe Supply	ENA Outcome	What Triggers It
Base	45%	$15B–$25B	$3B–$5B (sideways)	Time + competition. Protocol becomes infrastructure. Token stays boring (like Curve).
Bear	35%	Caps at $10B	$500M–$1B (–85%)	Fed cuts <3%, funding arbitrage dies. Or another multi-venue failure.
Bull	20%	$50B+	$10B–$15B (3–5x)	DeFi explodes, USDe becomes default collateral, Ethena enables fee sharing, rates stay high, no failures 18+ months.

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Stablecoin	Overall	Key Strength
USDC	A	Operational maturity (Circle controls execution)
DAI	A-	Diversified collateral + deep DEX liquidity
USDe	B-	Superior yield mechanics, fragile execution
USDT	B	Liquidity dominance trumps transparency issues

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Tier	Focus	USDe Grade	Why
Protocol	Mechanism soundness, collateral	A	110% collateralized, processed $3B redemptions
Execution	Oracle design, exchange reliability	C	Worked on Curve/Bybit, failed on Binance
Liquidity	Market depth under stress	B-	Passed $3B test but Binance mismatch (0.09% ratio)
Credibility	Crisis response, trust dynamics	B	Fast PoR release, but $3B panic redemption

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Stablecoin	Tier 1	Tier 2	Tier 3	Tier 4	Overall	Why
USDC	A	A	A+	A	A	Most operationally resilient
DAI	A-	A	A	A-	A-	Strong infrastructure, diversified
USDe	A	C	B-	B	B-	Design works, execution fragile
USDT	C	A	A+	A	B	Terrible transparency, survives on liquidity

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Asset	Mechanism	Worst Depeg	Recovery	Failure Type
Terra (UST)	Algorithmic	$0.10	Never	Death spiral
USDC	Fiat-backed	$0.88 (SVB)	72 hours	Bank counterparty
USDe	Delta-neutral	$0.65 (Binance only)	8 hours	Infrastructure
FRAX	Hybrid	$0.95	2 hours	Stress-tested

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Layer	What It Controls	USDe Outcome	Who Owns Risk
Protocol	Smart contract logic, collateral	✅ Passed	Ethena
Execution	Exchange oracles, API stability	❌ Failed	Binance
Liquidity	Market depth under stress	❌ Failed	Market makers
Perception	Reflexive panic dynamics	❌ Failed	Market psychology

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Protocol	TVL	Key Differentiator	Risk Profile
Ondo (USDY/OUSG)	~$600M	Institutional infra, U.S. compliance	Low-Medium
Franklin Templeton (BENJI)	~$500M	TradFi giant, brand trust	Low
Matrixdock (STBT)	~$400M	Asia-focused, faster redemptions	Medium
Mountain Protocol (USDM)	~$150M	Permissionless, Bermuda-regulated	Medium
OpenEden (TBILL)	~$80M	Singapore-based, EM access	Medium-High

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Category	% Allocation	Unlock
Team & Early Contributors	30%	4-year linear
Private Sale Investors	24%	2-year vest, 6-month cliff
Ecosystem & Community	20%	DAO-controlled
Liquidity Mining	18%	5-year emissions
Public Sale	8%	Fully unlocked

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Source	Mechanism	Contribution
Management Fees	0.15–0.50% annual on AUM	~60%
Yield Spread	Delta between Treasury yield & distributed yield	~25%
Partnership Deals	Integration incentives(e.g., Mantle liquidity mining)	~10%
Token Emissions	ONDO used to bootstrap liquidity	Cost, not revenue