pycheng9

Pendle Liquidity Fragmentation

Maturity	Underlying	TVL ($M)	Avg Daily Volume ($M)	Spread (bps)
Dec 2025	stETH	800	120	8
Mar 2026	sUSDe	400	50	12
Jun 2026	aUSDC	120	15	20
Sep 2026	stETH	30	3	45
Others (40+ markets)	Various	<200	<10	>50

pycheng9

Protocol	Revenue Distribution	Token Utility	Holder Returns
GMX	100% to stakers	30% V1 / 27% V2 fees → GMX buyback & distribution	Real yield in ETH/AVAX
dYdX	All trading fees to validators/stakers	241.2M tokens staked (~17,700 stakers)	~14.93% APR in USDC
Uniswap	0% to token holders	Governance voting rights only	$0

pycheng9

Risk Level	Scenario	Probability	Impact on UNI
HIGH	Fee switch remains off indefinitely	85%	Continued underperformance vs revenue-sharing tokens
MEDIUM	Competitor DEXs (Hyperliquid, Trader Joe) gain meaningful market share	40%	Loss of "infrastructure monopoly" narrative premium
LOW	Technical failure / exploit of Uniswap X	10%	Temporary but recoverable given brand strength
TAIL	Regulatory clarity enables fee distribution	5%	Massive repricing upward (but unlikely near-term)