reducto-sample-doc.json

{"usage":{"num_pages":3},"result":{"type":"full","chunks":[{"content":"# Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ)\n\nRating: OUTPERFORM* Price (9 May 14, US$): 129.45 Target Price (US$): 170.00 52-Week Price Range: 55.28-174.98 Market Cap. (US$ m): 8,196.0 Enterprise Value (US$ m): 9,089.5\n\n*Target Price is for 12 months.\n\nResearch Analysts: Peter Sullivan, Ph.D. Seth Davis, M.D. John Tuld, M.D.\n\nFigure 1 JAZZ Stock Price Performance\n\nACCUMMULATE RECOMMENDATION/COMPANY UPDATE\n\n## Strong Q1 FY14 & Multiple Catalysts Ahead\n\n- Q1 Results: Jazz Pharmaceuticals reported strong Q1 results on Thursday, with revenue of $247 million vs. $196 million in Q1 of FY 13, representing 26% YoY growth. The GAAP Net Loss was $93 million vs. GAAP Net Income of $43 million in Q1 of FY 13, but $127 million of that was due to an upfront license fee and milestone payment for JZP-110. Adjusted Net Income was $101 million vs. $84 million in Q1 of FY 13. These figures were slightly ahead of Goldman Stanley estimates of $240 million in revenue and $95 million in Adjusted Net Income.\n\n- FY 14 Guidance: The Company reaffirmed its FY 14 guidance across the board, with revenue of $1.10 billion - $1.16 billion, Xyrem sales of $755 - $755 million, Erwinaze at $185 - $200 million, Defitelio at $42 - $52 million, and Adjusted Net Income of $496 - $520 million. While we believe the market has already priced in these expectations, we continue to see Jazz as an undervalued, high-growth story going forward, and we believe that its longer-term revenue, EPS, and EBITDA are likely to exceed consensus estimates in FY 15, FY 16, and beyond.\n\n- Catalysts: 1) Possible price increases for Xyrem - Given the historical price increases and the price ranges for comparable orphan drugs, we believe the company is likely to announce another round of price increases at the end of FY 14 or early FY 15, and that there is significant room to grow pricing beyond the current levels. 2) Launch of new marketing campaigns for Xyrem - Jazz management is in the process of launching awareness campaigns for narcolepsy patients in key geographies, and has already reported 11,400 Xyrem patients in Q1, above our FY 14 estimate of ~11,300. 3) Settlement of Roxane lawsuit - We believe this will be decided in Jazz's favor, resulting in a delayed entrance for Xyrem generics. Current market expectations point to generics in FY 19 or FY 20, but we believe FY 21 is more likely (with peak sales of ~$3.0 billion in FY 20).\n\n- Our $170.00 target price is based on an FY 14 EV / EBITDA multiple of 20.7x and an FY 15 EV / EBITDA multiple of 15.3x, vs. median peer company multiples of 21.8x and 15.3x, respectively. Given Jazz's higher revenue growth, margins, and EBITDA growth, we believe this is still quite conservative. A DCF analysis with our long-term FCF projections, a discount rate of 8.07%, and a Terminal FCF growth rate of 0.3% also produces an implied share price of $168.71.\n\n## Financial and Valuation Metrics\n\n<table><tr><th>Year</th><th>12/12A</th><th>12/13A</th><th>12/14E</th><th>12/15E</th></tr><tr><td>GAAP EPS (US $)</td><td>4.79</td><td>3.51</td><td>3.40</td><td>7.85</td></tr><tr><td>GAAP P / E (x)</td><td>27.0</td><td>36.8</td><td>39.1</td><td>17.0</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue (US $m)</td><td>586.0</td><td>872.4</td><td>1,090.4</td><td>1,421.9</td></tr><tr><td>EV / Revenue (x)</td><td>15.5</td><td>10.4</td><td>8.3</td><td>6.4</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA (US $m)</td><td>272.1</td><td>426.4</td><td>565.1</td><td>760.7</td></tr><tr><td>EV / EBITDA (x)</td><td>33.4</td><td>21.3</td><td>16.1</td><td>11.9</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Number of shares (m)</td><td>63.3</td></tr><tr><td>BV / Share (US $)</td><td>19.73</td></tr><tr><td>Net Debt (US$ m)</td><td>893.5</td></tr><tr><td>Net Debt / Total Cap. (%)</td><td>9.8</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Enterprise Value (US$ m)</td><td>9,089.5</td></tr><tr><td>Market Cap (US$ m)</td><td>8,196.0</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Source: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates.</td></tr></table>\n\nSource: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates.\n\nFigure 8 - Jazz Projected P&L\n\n<table><tr><td rowspan=\"2\">Income Statement:</td><td colspan=\"10\">Projected</td></tr><tr><th>FY 14E</th><th>FY 15E</th><th>FY 16E</th><th>FY 17E</th><th>FY 18E</th><th>FY 19E</th><th>FY 20E</th><th>FY 21E</th><th>FY 22E</th><th>FY 23E</th></tr><tr><td colspan=\"11\">Revenue:</td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"11\">Existing Products:</td></tr><tr><td>Xyrem Sales:</td><td>$ 687.2</td><td>$ 951.8</td><td>$ 1,265.5</td><td>$ 1,635.9</td><td>$ 2,037.9</td><td>$ 2,498.9</td><td>$ 2,976.5</td><td>$ 310,9</td><td>$ 339.1</td><td>$ 339.1</td></tr><tr><td>Erwinaze Sales:</td><td>203.4</td><td>234.2</td><td>266.6</td><td>300.7</td><td>336.7</td><td>346.8</td><td>385.8</td><td>397.3</td><td>439.6</td><td>452,7</td></tr><tr><td>Defitelio Sales:</td><td>57.8</td><td>79.8</td><td>107.1</td><td>140.7</td><td>182.0</td><td>209.3</td><td>240.7</td><td>276.9</td><td>318.4</td><td>366.1</td></tr><tr><td>Other Sales and Royalties:</td><td>142.0</td><td>156.2</td><td>168.7</td><td>182.1</td><td>193.1</td><td>204.7</td><td>214.9</td><td>225.6</td><td>234.7</td><td>244.0</td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"11\">Risk-Adjusted Pipeline Drug Sales:</td></tr><tr><td>JZP-110 Sales:</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>24.5</td><td>61.1</td><td>112.5</td><td>133.9</td><td>210.6</td><td>242.1</td><td>319.0</td></tr><tr><td>JZP-386 Sales:</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Total Revenue:</td><td>1,090.4</td><td>1,421.9</td><td>1,807.8</td><td>2,284.0</td><td>2,810.8</td><td>3,372.2</td><td>3,951.8</td><td>1,421.3</td><td>1,573.9</td><td>1,721.1</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue Growth:</td><td>25.0%</td><td>30.4%</td><td>27.1%</td><td>26.3%</td><td>23.1%</td><td>20.0%</td><td>17.2%</td><td>(64.0%)</td><td>10.7%</td><td>9.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating Income (EBIT):</td><td>304.2</td><td>627.4</td><td>813.3</td><td>1,033.2</td><td>1,273.0</td><td>1,534.7</td><td>1,778.6</td><td>569.7</td><td>636.1</td><td>699.6</td></tr><tr><td>Operating (EBIT) Margin:</td><td>27.9%</td><td>44.1%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>45.2%</td><td>45.3%</td><td>45.5%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>40.1%</td><td>40.4%</td><td>40.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Net Income:</td><td>$ 209.6</td><td>$ 483.2</td><td>$ 635.7</td><td>$ 832.4</td><td>$ 1,029.0</td><td>$ 1,258.3</td><td>$ 1,458.5</td><td>$ 467.1</td><td>$ 521.6</td><td>$ 573.7</td></tr><tr><td>Effective Tax Rate:</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding:</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td></tr><tr><td>Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS):</td><td>$ 3.40</td><td>$ 7.85</td><td>$ 10.32</td><td>$ 13.52</td><td>$ 16.71</td><td>$ 20.44</td><td>$ 23.69</td><td>$ 7.59</td><td>$ 8.47</td><td>$ 9.32</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA:</td><td>$ 565.1</td><td>$ 760.7</td><td>$ 946.0</td><td>$ 1,171.0</td><td>$ 1,413.7</td><td>$ 1,665.7</td><td>$ 1,918.8</td><td>$ 686.0</td><td>$ 755.7</td><td>$ 822.6</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA Margin:</td><td>51.8%</td><td>53.5%</td><td>52.3%</td><td>51.3%</td><td>50.3%</td><td>49.4%</td><td>48.6%</td><td>48.3%</td><td>48.0%</td><td>47.8%</td></tr></table>\n\nSource: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates.\n\nWe then calculated Unlevered Free Cash Flow as follows:\n\nFigure 9 - Jazz Projected Unlevered Free Cash Flow\n\n<table><tr><td rowspan=\"2\">Unlevered Free Cash Flow Projections:</td><th colspan=\"10\">Projected</th></tr><tr><th>FY 14E</th><th>FY 15E</th><th>FY 16E</th><th>FY 17E</th><th>FY 18E</th><th>FY 19E</th><th>FY 20E</th><th>FY 21E</th><th>FY 22E</th><th>FY 23E</th></tr><tr><td>Revenue:</td><td>$ 1,090.4</td><td>$ 1,421.9</td><td>$ 1,807.8</td><td>$ 2,284.0</td><td>$ 2,810.8</td><td>$ 3,372.2</td><td>$ 3,951.8</td><td>$ 1,421.3</td><td>$ 1,573.9</td><td>$ 1,721.1</td></tr><tr><td>Annual/Annualized Revenue Growth Rate:</td><td>25.0%</td><td>30.4%</td><td>27.1%</td><td>26.3%</td><td>23.1%</td><td>20.0%</td><td>17.2%</td><td>(64.0%)</td><td>10.7%</td><td>9.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating Income (EBIT):</td><td>304.2</td><td>627.4</td><td>813.3</td><td>1,033.2</td><td>1,273.0</td><td>1,534.7</td><td>1,778.6</td><td>569.7</td><td>636.1</td><td>699.6</td></tr><tr><td>Annual / Annualized Operating Margin:</td><td>27.9%</td><td>44.1%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>45.2%</td><td>45.3%</td><td>45.5%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>40.1%</td><td>40.4%</td><td>40.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Less: Taxes, Excluding Effect of Interest:</td><td>(54.8)</td><td>(112.9)</td><td>(146.4)</td><td>(186.0)</td><td>(229.1)</td><td>(276.2)</td><td>(320.2)</td><td>(102.5)</td><td>(114.5)</td><td>(125.9)</td></tr><tr><td>Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT):</td><td>249.5</td><td>514.5</td><td>666.9</td><td>847.3</td><td>1,043.9</td><td>1,258.5</td><td>1,458.5</td><td>467.1</td><td>521.6</td><td>573.7</td></tr><tr><td>Total Adjustments for Non-Cash Charges:</td><td>323.2</td><td>213.3</td><td>233.3</td><td>263.8</td><td>294.9</td><td>315.2</td><td>355.4</td><td>196.3</td><td>207.7</td><td>219.1</td></tr><tr><td>Total Changes in Operating Assets & Liabilities:</td><td>(20.3)</td><td>(50.1)</td><td>(44.0)</td><td>(54.1)</td><td>(60.4)</td><td>(65.7)</td><td>(66.9)</td><td>287.0</td><td>(18.6)</td><td>(18.3)</td></tr><tr><td>Less: Capital Expenditures:</td><td>(13.1)</td><td>(18.5)</td><td>(25.3)</td><td>(34.3)</td><td>(45.0)</td><td>(57.3)</td><td>(71.1)</td><td>(27.0)</td><td>(31.5)</td><td>(36.1)</td></tr><tr><td>Annual Unlevered Free Cash Flow:</td><td>539.3</td><td>659.2</td><td>830.9</td><td>1,022.7</td><td>1,233.5</td><td>1,450.6</td><td>1,675.9</td><td>923.5</td><td>679.2</td><td>738.3</td></tr><tr><td>Unlevered Free Cash Flow for Remaining Quarters:</td><td>459.1</td><td>659.2</td><td>830.9</td><td>1,022.7</td><td>1,233.5</td><td>1,450.6</td><td>1,675.9</td><td>923.5</td><td>679.2</td><td>738.3</td></tr><tr><td>Net Present Value of Free Cash Flow:</td><td>447.7</td><td>603.1</td><td>703,4</td><td>801.2</td><td>894.1</td><td>973.0</td><td>1,040.1</td><td>530.4</td><td>361.0</td><td>363.1</td></tr><tr><td>Normal Discount Period:</td><td>0.647</td><td>1.647</td><td>2.647</td><td>3.647</td><td>4.647</td><td>5.647</td><td>6.647</td><td>7.647</td><td>8.647</td><td>9.647</td></tr><tr><td>Mid-Year Discount Period:</td><td>0.323</td><td>1.147</td><td>2.147</td><td>3.147</td><td>4.147</td><td>5.147</td><td>6.147</td><td>7.147</td><td>8.147</td><td>9.147</td></tr><tr><td>Annual Free Cash Flow Growth Rate:</td><td>58.4%</td><td>22.2%</td><td>26.1%</td><td>23.1%</td><td>20.6%</td><td>17.6%</td><td>15.5%</td><td>(44.9%)</td><td>(26.4%)</td><td>8.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Annual EBITDA:</td><td>565.1</td><td>760.7</td><td>946.0</td><td>1,171.0</td><td>1,413.7</td><td>1,665.7</td><td>1,918.8</td><td>686.0</td><td>755.7</td><td>822.6</td></tr><tr><td>Annual EBITDA Growth Rate:</td><td>32.5%</td><td>34.6%</td><td>24.4%</td><td>23.8%</td><td>20.7%</td><td>17.8%</td><td>15.2%</td><td>(64.3%)</td><td>10.2%</td><td>8.9%</td></tr></table>\n\nSource: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates.\n\n# ALLSTATE INSURANCE GROUP* OWNERS OHIO\n\n## CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS - LINK RATIO METHOD FIRE\n\n<table><tr><td>Incurred Losses +</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><th>Fiscal Accident Year Ending 09/30</th><th>12 Months</th><th>24 Months</th><th>36 Months</th><th>48 Months</th><th>60 Months</th><th>72 Months</th><th>84 Months</th></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>37,023,446</td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>39,239,110</td><td>39,239,110</td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>35,898,511</td><td>35,895,995</td><td>35,896,549</td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>42,590,482</td><td>42,618,526</td><td>42,881,672</td><td>42,919,319</td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td></td><td></td><td>39,091,213</td><td>39,137,383</td><td>39,251,175</td><td>39,278,976</td><td>39,275,966</td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td></td><td>38,652,353</td><td>38,866,417</td><td>38,975,205</td><td>38,920,398</td><td>38,915,341</td><td>38,915,341</td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>34,590,148</td><td>38,411,950</td><td>39,315,528</td><td>39,339,637</td><td>39,430,526</td><td>39,855,297</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>39,130,462</td><td>44,255,512</td><td>44,802,056</td><td>44,803,229</td><td>44,721,864</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>48,139,579</td><td>56,452,077</td><td>57,156,322</td><td>57,194,593</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>46,039,133</td><td>51,965,847</td><td>52,822,023</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>45,814,514</td><td>51,874,978</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>49,909,902</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Link Ratios</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><th>Development</th><th>12 to 24</th><th>24 to 36</th><th>36 to 48</th><th>48 to 60</th><th>60 to 72</th><th>72 to 84</th></tr><tr><td>4th Prior</td><td>1.110</td><td>1.006</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>3rd Prior</td><td>1.131</td><td>1.024</td><td>1.003</td><td>1.003</td><td>1.006</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>2nd Prior</td><td>1.173</td><td>1.012</td><td>1.001</td><td>0.999</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td></tr><tr><td>1st Prior</td><td>1.129</td><td>1.012</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.002</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>Latest</td><td>1.132</td><td>1.016</td><td>1.001</td><td>0.998</td><td>1.011</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>5 Year Straight Avg</td><td>1.135</td><td>1.014</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.004</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>Selected:</td><td>1.135</td><td>1.014</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.004</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>Loss Development Period ( (months ):</td><td>12-84</td><td>24 - 84</td><td>36-84</td><td>48-84</td><td>60 - 84</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Loss Development Factor:</td><td>1.158</td><td>1.020</td><td>1.006</td><td>1.005</td><td>1.004</td><td></td></tr></table>\n\n<table><tr><td>Allstate Property and Casualty Insurance Company</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><th>Year</th><th>Incurred Loss</th><th>Factor to Ultimate</th><th>Ultimate Loss & ALAE</th></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>$15,271,855</td><td>1.004</td><td>$15,332,942</td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>14,429,870</td><td>1.005</td><td>14,502,019</td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>10,411,166</td><td>1.006</td><td>10,473,633</td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>6,408,306</td><td>1.020</td><td>6,536,472</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>7,382,432</td><td>1.158</td><td>8,548,856</td></tr></table>\n\n+Includes ALAE Includes supplemental reserves in addition to case reserves *Allstate Insurance Group includes Allstate Insurance & Allstate Indemnity & Allstate Property and Casualty Insurance & Allstate Vehicle and Property Insurance Companies","embed":"# Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ)\n\nRating: OUTPERFORM* Price (9 May 14, US$): 129.45 Target Price (US$): 170.00 52-Week Price Range: 55.28-174.98 Market Cap. (US$ m): 8,196.0 Enterprise Value (US$ m): 9,089.5\n\n*Target Price is for 12 months.\n\nResearch Analysts: Peter Sullivan, Ph.D. Seth Davis, M.D. John Tuld, M.D.\n\nFigure 1 JAZZ Stock Price Performance\n\nACCUMMULATE RECOMMENDATION/COMPANY UPDATE\n\n## Strong Q1 FY14 & Multiple Catalysts Ahead\n\n- Q1 Results: Jazz Pharmaceuticals reported strong Q1 results on Thursday, with revenue of $247 million vs. $196 million in Q1 of FY 13, representing 26% YoY growth. The GAAP Net Loss was $93 million vs. GAAP Net Income of $43 million in Q1 of FY 13, but $127 million of that was due to an upfront license fee and milestone payment for JZP-110. Adjusted Net Income was $101 million vs. $84 million in Q1 of FY 13. These figures were slightly ahead of Goldman Stanley estimates of $240 million in revenue and $95 million in Adjusted Net Income.\n\n- FY 14 Guidance: The Company reaffirmed its FY 14 guidance across the board, with revenue of $1.10 billion - $1.16 billion, Xyrem sales of $755 - $755 million, Erwinaze at $185 - $200 million, Defitelio at $42 - $52 million, and Adjusted Net Income of $496 - $520 million. While we believe the market has already priced in these expectations, we continue to see Jazz as an undervalued, high-growth story going forward, and we believe that its longer-term revenue, EPS, and EBITDA are likely to exceed consensus estimates in FY 15, FY 16, and beyond.\n\n- Catalysts: 1) Possible price increases for Xyrem - Given the historical price increases and the price ranges for comparable orphan drugs, we believe the company is likely to announce another round of price increases at the end of FY 14 or early FY 15, and that there is significant room to grow pricing beyond the current levels. 2) Launch of new marketing campaigns for Xyrem - Jazz management is in the process of launching awareness campaigns for narcolepsy patients in key geographies, and has already reported 11,400 Xyrem patients in Q1, above our FY 14 estimate of ~11,300. 3) Settlement of Roxane lawsuit - We believe this will be decided in Jazz's favor, resulting in a delayed entrance for Xyrem generics. Current market expectations point to generics in FY 19 or FY 20, but we believe FY 21 is more likely (with peak sales of ~$3.0 billion in FY 20).\n\n- Our $170.00 target price is based on an FY 14 EV / EBITDA multiple of 20.7x and an FY 15 EV / EBITDA multiple of 15.3x, vs. median peer company multiples of 21.8x and 15.3x, respectively. Given Jazz's higher revenue growth, margins, and EBITDA growth, we believe this is still quite conservative. A DCF analysis with our long-term FCF projections, a discount rate of 8.07%, and a Terminal FCF growth rate of 0.3% also produces an implied share price of $168.71.\n\n## Financial and Valuation Metrics\n\n<table><tr><th>Year</th><th>12/12A</th><th>12/13A</th><th>12/14E</th><th>12/15E</th></tr><tr><td>GAAP EPS (US $)</td><td>4.79</td><td>3.51</td><td>3.40</td><td>7.85</td></tr><tr><td>GAAP P / E (x)</td><td>27.0</td><td>36.8</td><td>39.1</td><td>17.0</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue (US $m)</td><td>586.0</td><td>872.4</td><td>1,090.4</td><td>1,421.9</td></tr><tr><td>EV / Revenue (x)</td><td>15.5</td><td>10.4</td><td>8.3</td><td>6.4</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA (US $m)</td><td>272.1</td><td>426.4</td><td>565.1</td><td>760.7</td></tr><tr><td>EV / EBITDA (x)</td><td>33.4</td><td>21.3</td><td>16.1</td><td>11.9</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Number of shares (m)</td><td>63.3</td></tr><tr><td>BV / Share (US $)</td><td>19.73</td></tr><tr><td>Net Debt (US$ m)</td><td>893.5</td></tr><tr><td>Net Debt / Total Cap. (%)</td><td>9.8</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Enterprise Value (US$ m)</td><td>9,089.5</td></tr><tr><td>Market Cap (US$ m)</td><td>8,196.0</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Source: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates.</td></tr></table>\n\nSource: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates.\n\nFigure 8 - Jazz Projected P&L\n\n<table><tr><td rowspan=\"2\">Income Statement:</td><td colspan=\"10\">Projected</td></tr><tr><th>FY 14E</th><th>FY 15E</th><th>FY 16E</th><th>FY 17E</th><th>FY 18E</th><th>FY 19E</th><th>FY 20E</th><th>FY 21E</th><th>FY 22E</th><th>FY 23E</th></tr><tr><td colspan=\"11\">Revenue:</td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"11\">Existing Products:</td></tr><tr><td>Xyrem Sales:</td><td>$ 687.2</td><td>$ 951.8</td><td>$ 1,265.5</td><td>$ 1,635.9</td><td>$ 2,037.9</td><td>$ 2,498.9</td><td>$ 2,976.5</td><td>$ 310,9</td><td>$ 339.1</td><td>$ 339.1</td></tr><tr><td>Erwinaze Sales:</td><td>203.4</td><td>234.2</td><td>266.6</td><td>300.7</td><td>336.7</td><td>346.8</td><td>385.8</td><td>397.3</td><td>439.6</td><td>452,7</td></tr><tr><td>Defitelio Sales:</td><td>57.8</td><td>79.8</td><td>107.1</td><td>140.7</td><td>182.0</td><td>209.3</td><td>240.7</td><td>276.9</td><td>318.4</td><td>366.1</td></tr><tr><td>Other Sales and Royalties:</td><td>142.0</td><td>156.2</td><td>168.7</td><td>182.1</td><td>193.1</td><td>204.7</td><td>214.9</td><td>225.6</td><td>234.7</td><td>244.0</td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"11\">Risk-Adjusted Pipeline Drug Sales:</td></tr><tr><td>JZP-110 Sales:</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>24.5</td><td>61.1</td><td>112.5</td><td>133.9</td><td>210.6</td><td>242.1</td><td>319.0</td></tr><tr><td>JZP-386 Sales:</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Total Revenue:</td><td>1,090.4</td><td>1,421.9</td><td>1,807.8</td><td>2,284.0</td><td>2,810.8</td><td>3,372.2</td><td>3,951.8</td><td>1,421.3</td><td>1,573.9</td><td>1,721.1</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue Growth:</td><td>25.0%</td><td>30.4%</td><td>27.1%</td><td>26.3%</td><td>23.1%</td><td>20.0%</td><td>17.2%</td><td>(64.0%)</td><td>10.7%</td><td>9.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating Income (EBIT):</td><td>304.2</td><td>627.4</td><td>813.3</td><td>1,033.2</td><td>1,273.0</td><td>1,534.7</td><td>1,778.6</td><td>569.7</td><td>636.1</td><td>699.6</td></tr><tr><td>Operating (EBIT) Margin:</td><td>27.9%</td><td>44.1%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>45.2%</td><td>45.3%</td><td>45.5%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>40.1%</td><td>40.4%</td><td>40.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Net Income:</td><td>$ 209.6</td><td>$ 483.2</td><td>$ 635.7</td><td>$ 832.4</td><td>$ 1,029.0</td><td>$ 1,258.3</td><td>$ 1,458.5</td><td>$ 467.1</td><td>$ 521.6</td><td>$ 573.7</td></tr><tr><td>Effective Tax Rate:</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding:</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td></tr><tr><td>Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS):</td><td>$ 3.40</td><td>$ 7.85</td><td>$ 10.32</td><td>$ 13.52</td><td>$ 16.71</td><td>$ 20.44</td><td>$ 23.69</td><td>$ 7.59</td><td>$ 8.47</td><td>$ 9.32</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA:</td><td>$ 565.1</td><td>$ 760.7</td><td>$ 946.0</td><td>$ 1,171.0</td><td>$ 1,413.7</td><td>$ 1,665.7</td><td>$ 1,918.8</td><td>$ 686.0</td><td>$ 755.7</td><td>$ 822.6</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA Margin:</td><td>51.8%</td><td>53.5%</td><td>52.3%</td><td>51.3%</td><td>50.3%</td><td>49.4%</td><td>48.6%</td><td>48.3%</td><td>48.0%</td><td>47.8%</td></tr></table>\n\nSource: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates.\n\nWe then calculated Unlevered Free Cash Flow as follows:\n\nFigure 9 - Jazz Projected Unlevered Free Cash Flow\n\n<table><tr><td rowspan=\"2\">Unlevered Free Cash Flow Projections:</td><th colspan=\"10\">Projected</th></tr><tr><th>FY 14E</th><th>FY 15E</th><th>FY 16E</th><th>FY 17E</th><th>FY 18E</th><th>FY 19E</th><th>FY 20E</th><th>FY 21E</th><th>FY 22E</th><th>FY 23E</th></tr><tr><td>Revenue:</td><td>$ 1,090.4</td><td>$ 1,421.9</td><td>$ 1,807.8</td><td>$ 2,284.0</td><td>$ 2,810.8</td><td>$ 3,372.2</td><td>$ 3,951.8</td><td>$ 1,421.3</td><td>$ 1,573.9</td><td>$ 1,721.1</td></tr><tr><td>Annual/Annualized Revenue Growth Rate:</td><td>25.0%</td><td>30.4%</td><td>27.1%</td><td>26.3%</td><td>23.1%</td><td>20.0%</td><td>17.2%</td><td>(64.0%)</td><td>10.7%</td><td>9.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating Income (EBIT):</td><td>304.2</td><td>627.4</td><td>813.3</td><td>1,033.2</td><td>1,273.0</td><td>1,534.7</td><td>1,778.6</td><td>569.7</td><td>636.1</td><td>699.6</td></tr><tr><td>Annual / Annualized Operating Margin:</td><td>27.9%</td><td>44.1%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>45.2%</td><td>45.3%</td><td>45.5%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>40.1%</td><td>40.4%</td><td>40.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Less: Taxes, Excluding Effect of Interest:</td><td>(54.8)</td><td>(112.9)</td><td>(146.4)</td><td>(186.0)</td><td>(229.1)</td><td>(276.2)</td><td>(320.2)</td><td>(102.5)</td><td>(114.5)</td><td>(125.9)</td></tr><tr><td>Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT):</td><td>249.5</td><td>514.5</td><td>666.9</td><td>847.3</td><td>1,043.9</td><td>1,258.5</td><td>1,458.5</td><td>467.1</td><td>521.6</td><td>573.7</td></tr><tr><td>Total Adjustments for Non-Cash Charges:</td><td>323.2</td><td>213.3</td><td>233.3</td><td>263.8</td><td>294.9</td><td>315.2</td><td>355.4</td><td>196.3</td><td>207.7</td><td>219.1</td></tr><tr><td>Total Changes in Operating Assets & Liabilities:</td><td>(20.3)</td><td>(50.1)</td><td>(44.0)</td><td>(54.1)</td><td>(60.4)</td><td>(65.7)</td><td>(66.9)</td><td>287.0</td><td>(18.6)</td><td>(18.3)</td></tr><tr><td>Less: Capital Expenditures:</td><td>(13.1)</td><td>(18.5)</td><td>(25.3)</td><td>(34.3)</td><td>(45.0)</td><td>(57.3)</td><td>(71.1)</td><td>(27.0)</td><td>(31.5)</td><td>(36.1)</td></tr><tr><td>Annual Unlevered Free Cash Flow:</td><td>539.3</td><td>659.2</td><td>830.9</td><td>1,022.7</td><td>1,233.5</td><td>1,450.6</td><td>1,675.9</td><td>923.5</td><td>679.2</td><td>738.3</td></tr><tr><td>Unlevered Free Cash Flow for Remaining Quarters:</td><td>459.1</td><td>659.2</td><td>830.9</td><td>1,022.7</td><td>1,233.5</td><td>1,450.6</td><td>1,675.9</td><td>923.5</td><td>679.2</td><td>738.3</td></tr><tr><td>Net Present Value of Free Cash Flow:</td><td>447.7</td><td>603.1</td><td>703,4</td><td>801.2</td><td>894.1</td><td>973.0</td><td>1,040.1</td><td>530.4</td><td>361.0</td><td>363.1</td></tr><tr><td>Normal Discount Period:</td><td>0.647</td><td>1.647</td><td>2.647</td><td>3.647</td><td>4.647</td><td>5.647</td><td>6.647</td><td>7.647</td><td>8.647</td><td>9.647</td></tr><tr><td>Mid-Year Discount Period:</td><td>0.323</td><td>1.147</td><td>2.147</td><td>3.147</td><td>4.147</td><td>5.147</td><td>6.147</td><td>7.147</td><td>8.147</td><td>9.147</td></tr><tr><td>Annual Free Cash Flow Growth Rate:</td><td>58.4%</td><td>22.2%</td><td>26.1%</td><td>23.1%</td><td>20.6%</td><td>17.6%</td><td>15.5%</td><td>(44.9%)</td><td>(26.4%)</td><td>8.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Annual EBITDA:</td><td>565.1</td><td>760.7</td><td>946.0</td><td>1,171.0</td><td>1,413.7</td><td>1,665.7</td><td>1,918.8</td><td>686.0</td><td>755.7</td><td>822.6</td></tr><tr><td>Annual EBITDA Growth Rate:</td><td>32.5%</td><td>34.6%</td><td>24.4%</td><td>23.8%</td><td>20.7%</td><td>17.8%</td><td>15.2%</td><td>(64.3%)</td><td>10.2%</td><td>8.9%</td></tr></table>\n\nSource: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates.\n\n# ALLSTATE INSURANCE GROUP* OWNERS OHIO\n\n## CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS - LINK RATIO METHOD FIRE\n\n<table><tr><td>Incurred Losses +</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><th>Fiscal Accident Year Ending 09/30</th><th>12 Months</th><th>24 Months</th><th>36 Months</th><th>48 Months</th><th>60 Months</th><th>72 Months</th><th>84 Months</th></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>37,023,446</td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>39,239,110</td><td>39,239,110</td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>35,898,511</td><td>35,895,995</td><td>35,896,549</td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>42,590,482</td><td>42,618,526</td><td>42,881,672</td><td>42,919,319</td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td></td><td></td><td>39,091,213</td><td>39,137,383</td><td>39,251,175</td><td>39,278,976</td><td>39,275,966</td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td></td><td>38,652,353</td><td>38,866,417</td><td>38,975,205</td><td>38,920,398</td><td>38,915,341</td><td>38,915,341</td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>34,590,148</td><td>38,411,950</td><td>39,315,528</td><td>39,339,637</td><td>39,430,526</td><td>39,855,297</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>39,130,462</td><td>44,255,512</td><td>44,802,056</td><td>44,803,229</td><td>44,721,864</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>48,139,579</td><td>56,452,077</td><td>57,156,322</td><td>57,194,593</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>46,039,133</td><td>51,965,847</td><td>52,822,023</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>45,814,514</td><td>51,874,978</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>49,909,902</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Link Ratios</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><th>Development</th><th>12 to 24</th><th>24 to 36</th><th>36 to 48</th><th>48 to 60</th><th>60 to 72</th><th>72 to 84</th></tr><tr><td>4th Prior</td><td>1.110</td><td>1.006</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>3rd Prior</td><td>1.131</td><td>1.024</td><td>1.003</td><td>1.003</td><td>1.006</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>2nd Prior</td><td>1.173</td><td>1.012</td><td>1.001</td><td>0.999</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td></tr><tr><td>1st Prior</td><td>1.129</td><td>1.012</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.002</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>Latest</td><td>1.132</td><td>1.016</td><td>1.001</td><td>0.998</td><td>1.011</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>5 Year Straight Avg</td><td>1.135</td><td>1.014</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.004</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>Selected:</td><td>1.135</td><td>1.014</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.004</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>Loss Development Period ( (months ):</td><td>12-84</td><td>24 - 84</td><td>36-84</td><td>48-84</td><td>60 - 84</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Loss Development Factor:</td><td>1.158</td><td>1.020</td><td>1.006</td><td>1.005</td><td>1.004</td><td></td></tr></table>\n\n<table><tr><td>Allstate Property and Casualty Insurance Company</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><th>Year</th><th>Incurred Loss</th><th>Factor to Ultimate</th><th>Ultimate Loss & ALAE</th></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>$15,271,855</td><td>1.004</td><td>$15,332,942</td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>14,429,870</td><td>1.005</td><td>14,502,019</td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>10,411,166</td><td>1.006</td><td>10,473,633</td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>6,408,306</td><td>1.020</td><td>6,536,472</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>7,382,432</td><td>1.158</td><td>8,548,856</td></tr></table>\n\n+Includes ALAE Includes supplemental reserves in addition to case reserves *Allstate Insurance Group includes Allstate Insurance & Allstate Indemnity & Allstate Property and Casualty Insurance & Allstate Vehicle and Property Insurance Companies","enriched":null,"enrichment_success":false,"blocks":[{"type":"Header","bbox":{"left":0.08868115395307541,"top":0.04626169055700302,"width":0.22526952624320984,"height":0.022921601310372353,"page":1},"content":"Goldman Stanley"},{"type":"Header","bbox":{"left":0.7542171478271484,"top":0.02966209128499031,"width":0.1636863648891449,"height":0.05924401432275772,"page":1},"content":"9 May 2014\nAmericas/United States\nEquity Research\nSpecialty Pharmaceuticals"},{"type":"Title","bbox":{"left":0.36857953667640686,"top":0.10315138101577759,"width":0.35794052481651306,"height":0.022516772150993347,"page":1},"content":"Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ)"},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.08046577870845795,"top":0.1406077891588211,"width":0.2643030881881714,"height":0.06301701813936234,"page":1},"content":"Rating: OUTPERFORM* Price (9 May 14, US$): 129.45 Target Price (US$): 170.00 52-Week Price Range: 55.28-174.98 Market Cap. (US$ m): 8,196.0 Enterprise Value (US$ m): 9,089.5"},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.08230181038379669,"top":0.20967771112918854,"width":0.1583402305841446,"height":0.009823729284107685,"page":1},"content":"*Target Price is for 12 months."},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.23558291792869568,"top":0.2408384382724762,"width":0.10887665301561356,"height":0.06399852782487869,"page":1},"content":"Research Analysts: Peter Sullivan, Ph.D. Seth Davis, M.D. John Tuld, M.D."},{"type":"Figure","bbox":{"left":0.0751686543226242,"top":0.3528732359409332,"width":0.26536160707473755,"height":0.12434277683496475,"page":1},"content":"Price Performance 1-Year\n$200.00\n$180.00\n$160.00\n$140.00\n$120.00\n$100.00\n$80.00\n$60.00\n$40.00\n$20.00\n$0.00"},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.07827958464622498,"top":0.4809122085571289,"width":0.24030961096286774,"height":0.010557660833001137,"page":1},"content":"Figure 1 JAZZ Stock Price Performance"},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.3780519366264343,"top":0.14256611466407776,"width":0.31550687551498413,"height":0.010035108774900436,"page":1},"content":"ACCUMMULATE RECOMMENDATION/COMPANY UPDATE"},{"type":"Section Header","bbox":{"left":0.36818692088127136,"top":0.16933482885360718,"width":0.4632404148578644,"height":0.01747916080057621,"page":1},"content":"Strong Q1 FY14 & Multiple Catalysts Ahead"},{"type":"List Item","bbox":{"left":0.3692430853843689,"top":0.201983243227005,"width":0.5498755574226379,"height":0.10751831531524658,"page":1},"content":"- Q1 Results: Jazz Pharmaceuticals reported strong Q1 results on Thursday, with revenue of $247 million vs. $196 million in Q1 of FY 13, representing 26% YoY growth. The GAAP Net Loss was $93 million vs. GAAP Net Income of $43 million in Q1 of FY 13, but $127 million of that was due to an upfront license fee and milestone payment for JZP-110. Adjusted Net Income was $101 million vs. $84 million in Q1 of FY 13. These figures were slightly ahead of Goldman Stanley estimates of $240 million in revenue and $95 million in Adjusted Net Income."},{"type":"List Item","bbox":{"left":0.36858227849006653,"top":0.3212932348251343,"width":0.5507641434669495,"height":0.10714296251535416,"page":1},"content":"- FY 14 Guidance: The Company reaffirmed its FY 14 guidance across the board, with revenue of $1.10 billion - $1.16 billion, Xyrem sales of $755 - $755 million, Erwinaze at $185 - $200 million, Defitelio at $42 - $52 million, and Adjusted Net Income of $496 - $520 million. While we believe the market has already priced in these expectations, we continue to see Jazz as an undervalued, high-growth story going forward, and we believe that its longer-term revenue, EPS, and EBITDA are likely to exceed consensus estimates in FY 15, FY 16, and beyond."},{"type":"List Item","bbox":{"left":0.36870500445365906,"top":0.43992429971694946,"width":0.5510709285736084,"height":0.16426856815814972,"page":1},"content":"- Catalysts: 1) Possible price increases for Xyrem - Given the historical price increases and the price ranges for comparable orphan drugs, we believe the company is likely to announce another round of price increases at the end of FY 14 or early FY 15, and that there is significant room to grow pricing beyond the current levels. 2) Launch of new marketing campaigns for Xyrem - Jazz management is in the process of launching awareness campaigns for narcolepsy patients in key geographies, and has already reported 11,400 Xyrem patients in Q1, above our FY 14 estimate of ~11,300. 3) Settlement of Roxane lawsuit - We believe this will be decided in Jazz's favor, resulting in a delayed entrance for Xyrem generics. Current market expectations point to generics in FY 19 or FY 20, but we believe FY 21 is more likely (with peak sales of ~$3.0 billion in FY 20)."},{"type":"List Item","bbox":{"left":0.36800020933151245,"top":0.6158766150474548,"width":0.5508140921592712,"height":0.09202206134796143,"page":1},"content":"- Our $170.00 target price is based on an FY 14 EV / EBITDA multiple of 20.7x and an FY 15 EV / EBITDA multiple of 15.3x, vs. median peer company multiples of 21.8x and 15.3x, respectively. Given Jazz's higher revenue growth, margins, and EBITDA growth, we believe this is still quite conservative. A DCF analysis with our long-term FCF projections, a discount rate of 8.07%, and a Terminal FCF growth rate of 0.3% also produces an implied share price of $168.71."},{"type":"Section Header","bbox":{"left":0.3744385540485382,"top":0.728538990020752,"width":0.19181522727012634,"height":0.009087160229682922,"page":1},"content":"Financial and Valuation Metrics"},{"type":"Table","bbox":{"left":0.3651944398880005,"top":0.7406131625175476,"width":0.5695468783378601,"height":0.18625880777835846,"page":1},"content":"<table><tr><th>Year</th><th>12/12A</th><th>12/13A</th><th>12/14E</th><th>12/15E</th></tr><tr><td>GAAP EPS (US $)</td><td>4.79</td><td>3.51</td><td>3.40</td><td>7.85</td></tr><tr><td>GAAP P / E (x)</td><td>27.0</td><td>36.8</td><td>39.1</td><td>17.0</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue (US $m)</td><td>586.0</td><td>872.4</td><td>1,090.4</td><td>1,421.9</td></tr><tr><td>EV / Revenue (x)</td><td>15.5</td><td>10.4</td><td>8.3</td><td>6.4</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA (US $m)</td><td>272.1</td><td>426.4</td><td>565.1</td><td>760.7</td></tr><tr><td>EV / EBITDA (x)</td><td>33.4</td><td>21.3</td><td>16.1</td><td>11.9</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Number of shares (m)</td><td>63.3</td></tr><tr><td>BV / Share (US $)</td><td>19.73</td></tr><tr><td>Net Debt (US$ m)</td><td>893.5</td></tr><tr><td>Net Debt / Total Cap. (%)</td><td>9.8</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Enterprise Value (US$ m)</td><td>9,089.5</td></tr><tr><td>Market Cap (US$ m)</td><td>8,196.0</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Source: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates.</td></tr></table>"},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.3705819249153137,"top":0.9176058769226074,"width":0.2630692720413208,"height":0.010065481998026371,"page":1},"content":"Source: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates."},{"type":"Footer","bbox":{"left":0.05307601019740105,"top":0.9392858147621155,"width":0.2005482017993927,"height":0.013260782696306705,"page":1},"content":"Jazz Pharmaceuticals [JAZZ]"},{"type":"Header","bbox":{"left":0.8300201892852783,"top":0.03234593942761421,"width":0.07859807461500168,"height":0.011106984689831734,"page":2},"content":"9 May 2014"},{"type":"Header","bbox":{"left":0.06658841669559479,"top":0.05596239119768143,"width":0.1803223043680191,"height":0.017939964309334755,"page":2},"content":"Goldman Stanley"},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.06133681535720825,"top":0.12283855676651001,"width":0.18591052293777466,"height":0.010631962679326534,"page":2},"content":"Figure 8 - Jazz Projected P&L"},{"type":"Table","bbox":{"left":0.0648084208369255,"top":0.13796432316303253,"width":0.8823477029800415,"height":0.29773440957069397,"page":2},"content":"<table><tr><td rowspan=\"2\">Income Statement:</td><td colspan=\"10\">Projected</td></tr><tr><th>FY 14E</th><th>FY 15E</th><th>FY 16E</th><th>FY 17E</th><th>FY 18E</th><th>FY 19E</th><th>FY 20E</th><th>FY 21E</th><th>FY 22E</th><th>FY 23E</th></tr><tr><td colspan=\"11\">Revenue:</td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"11\">Existing Products:</td></tr><tr><td>Xyrem Sales:</td><td>$ 687.2</td><td>$ 951.8</td><td>$ 1,265.5</td><td>$ 1,635.9</td><td>$ 2,037.9</td><td>$ 2,498.9</td><td>$ 2,976.5</td><td>$ 310,9</td><td>$ 339.1</td><td>$ 339.1</td></tr><tr><td>Erwinaze Sales:</td><td>203.4</td><td>234.2</td><td>266.6</td><td>300.7</td><td>336.7</td><td>346.8</td><td>385.8</td><td>397.3</td><td>439.6</td><td>452,7</td></tr><tr><td>Defitelio Sales:</td><td>57.8</td><td>79.8</td><td>107.1</td><td>140.7</td><td>182.0</td><td>209.3</td><td>240.7</td><td>276.9</td><td>318.4</td><td>366.1</td></tr><tr><td>Other Sales and Royalties:</td><td>142.0</td><td>156.2</td><td>168.7</td><td>182.1</td><td>193.1</td><td>204.7</td><td>214.9</td><td>225.6</td><td>234.7</td><td>244.0</td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"11\">Risk-Adjusted Pipeline Drug Sales:</td></tr><tr><td>JZP-110 Sales:</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>24.5</td><td>61.1</td><td>112.5</td><td>133.9</td><td>210.6</td><td>242.1</td><td>319.0</td></tr><tr><td>JZP-386 Sales:</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Total Revenue:</td><td>1,090.4</td><td>1,421.9</td><td>1,807.8</td><td>2,284.0</td><td>2,810.8</td><td>3,372.2</td><td>3,951.8</td><td>1,421.3</td><td>1,573.9</td><td>1,721.1</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue Growth:</td><td>25.0%</td><td>30.4%</td><td>27.1%</td><td>26.3%</td><td>23.1%</td><td>20.0%</td><td>17.2%</td><td>(64.0%)</td><td>10.7%</td><td>9.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating Income (EBIT):</td><td>304.2</td><td>627.4</td><td>813.3</td><td>1,033.2</td><td>1,273.0</td><td>1,534.7</td><td>1,778.6</td><td>569.7</td><td>636.1</td><td>699.6</td></tr><tr><td>Operating (EBIT) Margin:</td><td>27.9%</td><td>44.1%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>45.2%</td><td>45.3%</td><td>45.5%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>40.1%</td><td>40.4%</td><td>40.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Net Income:</td><td>$ 209.6</td><td>$ 483.2</td><td>$ 635.7</td><td>$ 832.4</td><td>$ 1,029.0</td><td>$ 1,258.3</td><td>$ 1,458.5</td><td>$ 467.1</td><td>$ 521.6</td><td>$ 573.7</td></tr><tr><td>Effective Tax Rate:</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>18.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding:</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td><td>61.6</td></tr><tr><td>Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS):</td><td>$ 3.40</td><td>$ 7.85</td><td>$ 10.32</td><td>$ 13.52</td><td>$ 16.71</td><td>$ 20.44</td><td>$ 23.69</td><td>$ 7.59</td><td>$ 8.47</td><td>$ 9.32</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA:</td><td>$ 565.1</td><td>$ 760.7</td><td>$ 946.0</td><td>$ 1,171.0</td><td>$ 1,413.7</td><td>$ 1,665.7</td><td>$ 1,918.8</td><td>$ 686.0</td><td>$ 755.7</td><td>$ 822.6</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA Margin:</td><td>51.8%</td><td>53.5%</td><td>52.3%</td><td>51.3%</td><td>50.3%</td><td>49.4%</td><td>48.6%</td><td>48.3%</td><td>48.0%</td><td>47.8%</td></tr></table>"},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.06070327386260033,"top":0.4512574374675751,"width":0.2632260322570801,"height":0.009099988266825676,"page":2},"content":"Source: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates."},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.06568967550992966,"top":0.473842054605484,"width":0.35963189601898193,"height":0.009240019135177135,"page":2},"content":"We then calculated Unlevered Free Cash Flow as follows:"},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.061270471662282944,"top":0.5061977505683899,"width":0.32680776715278625,"height":0.011033146642148495,"page":2},"content":"Figure 9 - Jazz Projected Unlevered Free Cash Flow"},{"type":"Table","bbox":{"left":0.06563772261142731,"top":0.5246127247810364,"width":0.8820537328720093,"height":0.3402939736843109,"page":2},"content":"<table><tr><td rowspan=\"2\">Unlevered Free Cash Flow Projections:</td><th colspan=\"10\">Projected</th></tr><tr><th>FY 14E</th><th>FY 15E</th><th>FY 16E</th><th>FY 17E</th><th>FY 18E</th><th>FY 19E</th><th>FY 20E</th><th>FY 21E</th><th>FY 22E</th><th>FY 23E</th></tr><tr><td>Revenue:</td><td>$ 1,090.4</td><td>$ 1,421.9</td><td>$ 1,807.8</td><td>$ 2,284.0</td><td>$ 2,810.8</td><td>$ 3,372.2</td><td>$ 3,951.8</td><td>$ 1,421.3</td><td>$ 1,573.9</td><td>$ 1,721.1</td></tr><tr><td>Annual/Annualized Revenue Growth Rate:</td><td>25.0%</td><td>30.4%</td><td>27.1%</td><td>26.3%</td><td>23.1%</td><td>20.0%</td><td>17.2%</td><td>(64.0%)</td><td>10.7%</td><td>9.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Operating Income (EBIT):</td><td>304.2</td><td>627.4</td><td>813.3</td><td>1,033.2</td><td>1,273.0</td><td>1,534.7</td><td>1,778.6</td><td>569.7</td><td>636.1</td><td>699.6</td></tr><tr><td>Annual / Annualized Operating Margin:</td><td>27.9%</td><td>44.1%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>45.2%</td><td>45.3%</td><td>45.5%</td><td>45.0%</td><td>40.1%</td><td>40.4%</td><td>40.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Less: Taxes, Excluding Effect of Interest:</td><td>(54.8)</td><td>(112.9)</td><td>(146.4)</td><td>(186.0)</td><td>(229.1)</td><td>(276.2)</td><td>(320.2)</td><td>(102.5)</td><td>(114.5)</td><td>(125.9)</td></tr><tr><td>Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT):</td><td>249.5</td><td>514.5</td><td>666.9</td><td>847.3</td><td>1,043.9</td><td>1,258.5</td><td>1,458.5</td><td>467.1</td><td>521.6</td><td>573.7</td></tr><tr><td>Total Adjustments for Non-Cash Charges:</td><td>323.2</td><td>213.3</td><td>233.3</td><td>263.8</td><td>294.9</td><td>315.2</td><td>355.4</td><td>196.3</td><td>207.7</td><td>219.1</td></tr><tr><td>Total Changes in Operating Assets & Liabilities:</td><td>(20.3)</td><td>(50.1)</td><td>(44.0)</td><td>(54.1)</td><td>(60.4)</td><td>(65.7)</td><td>(66.9)</td><td>287.0</td><td>(18.6)</td><td>(18.3)</td></tr><tr><td>Less: Capital Expenditures:</td><td>(13.1)</td><td>(18.5)</td><td>(25.3)</td><td>(34.3)</td><td>(45.0)</td><td>(57.3)</td><td>(71.1)</td><td>(27.0)</td><td>(31.5)</td><td>(36.1)</td></tr><tr><td>Annual Unlevered Free Cash Flow:</td><td>539.3</td><td>659.2</td><td>830.9</td><td>1,022.7</td><td>1,233.5</td><td>1,450.6</td><td>1,675.9</td><td>923.5</td><td>679.2</td><td>738.3</td></tr><tr><td>Unlevered Free Cash Flow for Remaining Quarters:</td><td>459.1</td><td>659.2</td><td>830.9</td><td>1,022.7</td><td>1,233.5</td><td>1,450.6</td><td>1,675.9</td><td>923.5</td><td>679.2</td><td>738.3</td></tr><tr><td>Net Present Value of Free Cash Flow:</td><td>447.7</td><td>603.1</td><td>703,4</td><td>801.2</td><td>894.1</td><td>973.0</td><td>1,040.1</td><td>530.4</td><td>361.0</td><td>363.1</td></tr><tr><td>Normal Discount Period:</td><td>0.647</td><td>1.647</td><td>2.647</td><td>3.647</td><td>4.647</td><td>5.647</td><td>6.647</td><td>7.647</td><td>8.647</td><td>9.647</td></tr><tr><td>Mid-Year Discount Period:</td><td>0.323</td><td>1.147</td><td>2.147</td><td>3.147</td><td>4.147</td><td>5.147</td><td>6.147</td><td>7.147</td><td>8.147</td><td>9.147</td></tr><tr><td>Annual Free Cash Flow Growth Rate:</td><td>58.4%</td><td>22.2%</td><td>26.1%</td><td>23.1%</td><td>20.6%</td><td>17.6%</td><td>15.5%</td><td>(44.9%)</td><td>(26.4%)</td><td>8.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Annual EBITDA:</td><td>565.1</td><td>760.7</td><td>946.0</td><td>1,171.0</td><td>1,413.7</td><td>1,665.7</td><td>1,918.8</td><td>686.0</td><td>755.7</td><td>822.6</td></tr><tr><td>Annual EBITDA Growth Rate:</td><td>32.5%</td><td>34.6%</td><td>24.4%</td><td>23.8%</td><td>20.7%</td><td>17.8%</td><td>15.2%</td><td>(64.3%)</td><td>10.2%</td><td>8.9%</td></tr></table>"},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.06058714538812637,"top":0.893261194229126,"width":0.2638813257217407,"height":0.009259689599275589,"page":2},"content":"Source: Company data, Goldman Stanley estimates."},{"type":"Footer","bbox":{"left":0.052917737513780594,"top":0.9240129590034485,"width":0.1828189492225647,"height":0.011455229483544827,"page":2},"content":"Jazz Pharmaceuticals [JAZZ]"},{"type":"Page Number","bbox":{"left":0.8914734721183777,"top":0.9240931868553162,"width":0.029559023678302765,"height":0.01053368579596281,"page":2},"content":"7/9"},{"type":"Header","bbox":{"left":0.11678912490606308,"top":0.045303259044885635,"width":0.09184850752353668,"height":0.009306707419455051,"page":3},"content":"Attachment V"},{"type":"Header","bbox":{"left":0.8095914721488953,"top":0.04506387561559677,"width":0.07064538449048996,"height":0.009685871191322803,"page":3},"content":"Exhibit 4.1"},{"type":"Title","bbox":{"left":0.3912847638130188,"top":0.0663672462105751,"width":0.21556846797466278,"height":0.03528787940740585,"page":3},"content":"ALLSTATE INSURANCE GROUP* OWNERS OHIO"},{"type":"Section Header","bbox":{"left":0.24770048260688782,"top":0.11871124804019928,"width":0.4998989999294281,"height":0.02217782661318779,"page":3},"content":"CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS - LINK RATIO METHOD FIRE"},{"type":"Table","bbox":{"left":0.12799671292304993,"top":0.15844246745109558,"width":0.7355853319168091,"height":0.337454617023468,"page":3},"content":"<table><tr><td>Incurred Losses +</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><th>Fiscal Accident Year Ending 09/30</th><th>12 Months</th><th>24 Months</th><th>36 Months</th><th>48 Months</th><th>60 Months</th><th>72 Months</th><th>84 Months</th></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>37,023,446</td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>39,239,110</td><td>39,239,110</td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>35,898,511</td><td>35,895,995</td><td>35,896,549</td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>42,590,482</td><td>42,618,526</td><td>42,881,672</td><td>42,919,319</td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td></td><td></td><td>39,091,213</td><td>39,137,383</td><td>39,251,175</td><td>39,278,976</td><td>39,275,966</td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td></td><td>38,652,353</td><td>38,866,417</td><td>38,975,205</td><td>38,920,398</td><td>38,915,341</td><td>38,915,341</td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>34,590,148</td><td>38,411,950</td><td>39,315,528</td><td>39,339,637</td><td>39,430,526</td><td>39,855,297</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>39,130,462</td><td>44,255,512</td><td>44,802,056</td><td>44,803,229</td><td>44,721,864</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>48,139,579</td><td>56,452,077</td><td>57,156,322</td><td>57,194,593</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>46,039,133</td><td>51,965,847</td><td>52,822,023</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>45,814,514</td><td>51,874,978</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>49,909,902</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><td>Link Ratios</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><th>Development</th><th>12 to 24</th><th>24 to 36</th><th>36 to 48</th><th>48 to 60</th><th>60 to 72</th><th>72 to 84</th></tr><tr><td>4th Prior</td><td>1.110</td><td>1.006</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>3rd Prior</td><td>1.131</td><td>1.024</td><td>1.003</td><td>1.003</td><td>1.006</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>2nd Prior</td><td>1.173</td><td>1.012</td><td>1.001</td><td>0.999</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td></tr><tr><td>1st Prior</td><td>1.129</td><td>1.012</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.002</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>Latest</td><td>1.132</td><td>1.016</td><td>1.001</td><td>0.998</td><td>1.011</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>5 Year Straight Avg</td><td>1.135</td><td>1.014</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.004</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>Selected:</td><td>1.135</td><td>1.014</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.001</td><td>1.004</td><td>1.000</td></tr><tr><td>Loss Development Period ( (months ):</td><td>12-84</td><td>24 - 84</td><td>36-84</td><td>48-84</td><td>60 - 84</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Loss Development Factor:</td><td>1.158</td><td>1.020</td><td>1.006</td><td>1.005</td><td>1.004</td><td></td></tr></table>"},{"type":"Table","bbox":{"left":0.40598440170288086,"top":0.5060093402862549,"width":0.3142193555831909,"height":0.1149948388338089,"page":3},"content":"<table><tr><td>Allstate Property and Casualty Insurance Company</td></tr></table>\n<table><tr><th>Year</th><th>Incurred Loss</th><th>Factor to Ultimate</th><th>Ultimate Loss & ALAE</th></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>$15,271,855</td><td>1.004</td><td>$15,332,942</td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>14,429,870</td><td>1.005</td><td>14,502,019</td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>10,411,166</td><td>1.006</td><td>10,473,633</td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>6,408,306</td><td>1.020</td><td>6,536,472</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>7,382,432</td><td>1.158</td><td>8,548,856</td></tr></table>"},{"type":"Text","bbox":{"left":0.12839850783348083,"top":0.6233739852905273,"width":0.6951120495796204,"height":0.044880542904138565,"page":3},"content":"+Includes ALAE Includes supplemental reserves in addition to case reserves *Allstate Insurance Group includes Allstate Insurance & Allstate Indemnity & Allstate Property and Casualty Insurance & Allstate Vehicle and Property Insurance Companies"}]}]}}