Theoretical vs experimental results for Telstra EuroDOCSIS 3.0 (with "Ultimate Speed Boost" add-on) upstream rates at various packet sizes
Telstra's supplied modem (CG3100D-2BPAUS) appears to be shaping (through a ~94KiB FIFO) based on ethernet frames (inc. FCS, excl. preamble etc). The 6-byte DOCSIS MAC header and 4-byte "Upstream Privacy EH version 2 Element" are not a factor.
Naive:
(12 / (12 + 8 + 20 + 14 + 4))*2500 = 517
Accounting for minimum datagram size of 64 bytes: