rowntreerob/gpt-debt-doom-loop-simulation.html

## gpt-debt-doom-loop-simulation.html
<!DOCTYPE html> <html class="light"> <head>   <meta charset="utf-8"/>   <title>Chat GPT: Debt Doom Loop Simulation.</title>   <meta name="generator" content="chatGPT Saving Bookmark"/> <style> html.dark {   background-color: rgb(32,33,35);   color: rgb(236,236,241); } html.light {   background-color: white;   color: rgb(52,53,65); } body {   font-size: 16px;   font-family: sans-serif;   line-height: 28px;   margin: 0; } body > .w-full {   padding: 30px; } .flex {   display: flex;   max-width: 100%; } .m-auto {   margin: auto; } .text-base {   max-width: 50rem; } /* prompt */ .dark body > .w-full:nth-child(2n+1) {   background: rgb(52,53,65); } /* response */ .dark body > .w-full:nth-child(2n+2) {   background: rgb(68,70,84); } .light body > .w-full:nth-child(2n+2) {   background: rgb(247,247,248); } .light body > .w-full {   border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(0,0,0,.1); } a, a:visited {   color: #7792cd; } pre {   margin: 0 0 1em 0;   display: block; } pre code.hljs {   margin-bottom: 1em; 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} .h-6 {   height: 1.5rem; } .p-1 {   padding: 0.25rem; } .w-\[30px\] {   width: 30px;   min-width: 30px; } .h-\[30px\] {   height: 30px; } .items-end {   margin: 1em 1em 0 -1em; } .items-end img {   width: 100%; } /* user avatar don't have p tag with margin */ body > .w-full:nth-child(2n+1) .items-end {   margin-top: 0; } /* style of the code snippets */ .rounded-md {   border-radius: 0.375rem; } .mb-4 {   margin-bottom: 1rem; } .p-4 {   padding: 1rem; } .py-2 {   padding-bottom: 0.5rem;   padding-top: 0.5rem; } .px-4 {   padding-left: 1rem;   padding-right: 1rem; } .text-xs {   font-size: .75rem;   line-height: 1rem; } .bg-black {   background-color: rgb(0,0,0); } .text-gray-200 {   color: rgb(217,217,227); } .bg-gray-800 {   background-color: rgba(52,53,65); } .rounded-t-md {   border-top-left-radius: 0.375rem;   border-top-right-radius: 0.375rem; } code.hljs, code[class*=language-], pre[class*=language-] {   word-wrap: normal;   background: none;   color: #fff;   -webkit-hyphens: none;   hyphens: none;   line-height: 1.5;   tab-size: 4;   text-align: left;   white-space: pre;   word-break: normal;   word-spacing: normal; } .prose :where(code):not(:where([class~=not-prose] *)) {   color: var(--tw-prose-code);   font-size: .875em;   font-weight: 600; } .prose :where(pre):not(:where([class~=not-prose] *)) {   background-color: transparent;   border-radius: 0.375rem;   color: currentColor;   font-size: .875em;   font-weight: 400;   line-height: 1.7142857;   margin: 0;   overflow-x: auto;   padding: 0; } .prose :where(pre code):not(:where([class~=not-prose] *)) {   background-color: transparent;   border-radius: 0;   border-width: 0;   color: inherit;   font-family: inherit;   font-size: inherit;   font-weight: inherit;   line-height: inherit;   padding: 0; } .\!whitespace-pre {   white-space: pre!important; } .overflow-y-auto {   overflow-y: auto; } .toggle {   position: fixed;   top: 5px;   right: 5px;   font-size: 16px;   line-height: 1.2em; } #toggle {   display: none; } #toggle + label::before {   content: "☀️";   background: black;   display: block;   box-sizing: border-box;   width: 28px;   height: 28px;   padding: 4px 3px;   border: 1px solid white;   border-radius: 50%; } #toggle:checked + label::before {   content: "🌙"; } </style> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/katex@0.16.4/dist/katex.min.css"/> </head> <body><div class="flex w-full items-center justify-center gap-1 border-b border-black/10 bg-gray-50 p-3 text-gray-500 dark:border-gray-900/50 dark:bg-gray-700 dark:text-gray-300"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true" stroke-width="2" class="h-4 w-4"></svg>Model: GPT-4</div><div class="group w-full text-gray-800 dark:text-gray-100 border-b border-black/10 dark:border-gray-900/50 dark:bg-gray-800"><div class="flex p-4 gap-4 text-base md:gap-6 md:max-w-2xl lg:max-w-xl xl:max-w-3xl md:py-6 lg:px-0 m-auto"><div class="flex-shrink-0 flex flex-col relative items-end"><div class="w-[30px]"><div class="relative flex"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; overflow: hidden; width: initial; height: initial; background: none; opacity: 1; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; max-width: 100%;"><img alt="user avatar" decoding="async" data-nimg="intrinsic" class="rounded-sm"></span></div></div></div><div class="relative flex w-[calc(100%-50px)] flex-col gap-1 md:gap-3 lg:w-[calc(100%-115px)]"><div class="flex flex-grow flex-col gap-3"><div class="min-h-[20px] flex flex-col items-start gap-4 whitespace-pre-wrap break-words">considering the US debate over the size and unsustainable nature of our government debt there are doom loop arguments from conservative investors like Stanley Druckenmiller that within a matter of years 30% or more of taxes will go to just paying the interest on the debt. Opposing this pessimistic view are notable economists like Paul Krugman and Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard with more sanguine views on the future path of debt, federal deficits, and in particular low rate of real interest. These 3 point to the recent macro experience of "secular stagnation" exhibiting imbalance of savings on the one hand and demand for investment on the other , resulting in very low interest rate "r" and growth "G" well below the potential of the economy. Acting on the economy together, (r) and (G) are of paramount importance determining the capacity to finance chronic annual budget deficits.

Setting up an example of the Druckenmiller scenario for a debt trap doom loop, the key assumptions include annual government budget deficits around 5% and use 4% as the nominal rate of interest , and 1.5% as the annual rate of growth in GDP.  The math underlying the calculations for the doom loop hypothesis rests solely on the large difference between the nominal rate and the GDP growth rate, while ignoring completely, the crucial impact of real interest rates, that MIT economist Peter Kennedy has written about extensively.

To illustrate the role "r" in time series scenario predicting the next 10 years of trends for the debt, please conduct the following numbers experiment, using the assumptions and listing the results for each of the next 10 years . Here are the numbers to use:
US Current GDP    = 25 trillion
current non -governmental debt  = 25 trillion
ratio of debt to GDP      = 1
nominal rate of interest (r)  = .04
real rate of interest      = .012
annual government budget deficit  =  .04 * GDP
annual rate of growth of GDP  = .018

use the numbers above to run a math simulation where "r" is real rate of interest and not the nominal rate.
for each fiscal year in the simulation
calculate GDP growth using the annual rate of GDP growth and add the delta to the prior year to determine next years GDP.
calculate the increase in government debt by adding the annual deficit to the prior years debt
calculate the annual debt service as total debt * real rate of interest and list it as % of GDP

Please provide the requested numbers 10 years out based on the assumptions for interest rates, debt, deficits on GDP

each year list the following
GDP , ratio of total debt to GDP, total debt, debt service trillions, debt service as % of GDP  </div></div></div></div></div><div class="group w-full text-gray-800 dark:text-gray-100 border-b border-black/10 dark:border-gray-900/50 bg-gray-50 dark:bg-[#444654]"><div class="flex p-4 gap-4 text-base md:gap-6 md:max-w-2xl lg:max-w-xl xl:max-w-3xl md:py-6 lg:px-0 m-auto"><div class="flex-shrink-0 flex flex-col relative items-end"><div class="w-[30px]"><div class="relative p-1 rounded-sm h-[30px] w-[30px] text-white flex items-center justify-center" style="background-color: rgb(171, 104, 255);"><svg width="41" height="41" viewBox="0 0 41 41" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" stroke-width="1.5" class="h-6 w-6" role="img"><title>ChatGPT</title><text x="-9999" y="-9999">ChatGPT</text><path d="M37.5324 16.8707C37.9808 15.5241 38.1363 14.0974 37.9886 12.6859C37.8409 11.2744 37.3934 9.91076 36.676 8.68622C35.6126 6.83404 33.9882 5.3676 32.0373 4.4985C30.0864 3.62941 27.9098 3.40259 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37.8874 19.0459 37.2733 17.6994 36.1501C17.7601 36.117 17.8666 36.0586 17.936 36.0161L25.9004 31.4156C26.1003 31.3019 26.2663 31.137 26.3813 30.9378C26.4964 30.7386 26.5563 30.5124 26.5549 30.2825V19.0542L29.9213 20.998C29.9389 21.0068 29.9541 21.0198 29.9656 21.0359C29.977 21.052 29.9842 21.0707 29.9867 21.0902V30.3889C29.9842 32.375 29.1946 34.2791 27.7909 35.6841C26.3872 37.0892 24.4838 37.8806 22.4978 37.8849ZM6.39227 31.0064C5.51397 29.4888 5.19742 27.7107 5.49804 25.9832C5.55718 26.0187 5.66048 26.0818 5.73461 26.1244L13.699 30.7248C13.8975 30.8408 14.1233 30.902 14.3532 30.902C14.583 30.902 14.8088 30.8408 15.0073 30.7248L24.731 25.1103V28.9979C24.7321 29.0177 24.7283 29.0376 24.7199 29.0556C24.7115 29.0736 24.6988 29.0893 24.6829 29.1012L16.6317 33.7497C14.9096 34.7416 12.8643 35.0097 10.9447 34.4954C9.02506 33.9811 7.38785 32.7263 6.39227 31.0064ZM4.29707 13.6194C5.17156 12.0998 6.55279 10.9364 8.19885 10.3327C8.19885 10.4013 8.19491 10.5228 8.19491 10.6071V19.808C8.19351 20.0378 8.25334 20.2638 8.36823 20.4629C8.48312 20.6619 8.64893 20.8267 8.84863 20.9404L18.5723 26.5542L15.206 28.4979C15.1894 28.5089 15.1703 28.5155 15.1505 28.5173C15.1307 28.5191 15.1107 28.516 15.0924 28.5082L7.04046 23.8557C5.32135 22.8601 4.06716 21.2235 3.55289 19.3046C3.03862 17.3858 3.30624 15.3413 4.29707 13.6194ZM31.955 20.0556L22.2312 14.4411L25.5976 12.4981C25.6142 12.4872 25.6333 12.4805 25.6531 12.4787C25.6729 12.4769 25.6928 12.4801 25.7111 12.4879L33.7631 17.1364C34.9967 17.849 36.0017 18.8982 36.6606 20.1613C37.3194 21.4244 37.6047 22.849 37.4832 24.2684C37.3617 25.6878 36.8382 27.0432 35.9743 28.1759C35.1103 29.3086 33.9415 30.1717 32.6047 30.6641C32.6047 30.5947 32.6047 30.4733 32.6047 30.3889V21.188C32.6066 20.9586 32.5474 20.7328 32.4332 20.5338C32.319 20.3348 32.154 20.1698 31.955 20.0556ZM35.3055 15.0128C35.2464 14.9765 35.1431 14.9142 35.069 14.8717L27.1045 10.2712C26.906 10.1554 26.6803 10.0943 26.4504 10.0943C26.2206 10.0943 25.9948 10.1554 25.7963 10.2712L16.0726 15.8858V11.9982C16.0715 11.9783 16.0753 11.9585 16.0837 11.9405C16.0921 11.9225 16.1048 11.9068 16.1207 11.8949L24.1719 7.25025C25.4053 6.53903 26.8158 6.19376 28.2383 6.25482C29.6608 6.31589 31.0364 6.78077 32.2044 7.59508C33.3723 8.40939 34.2842 9.53945 34.8334 10.8531C35.3826 12.1667 35.5464 13.6095 35.3055 15.0128ZM14.2424 21.9419L10.8752 19.9981C10.8576 19.9893 10.8423 19.9763 10.8309 19.9602C10.8195 19.9441 10.8122 19.9254 10.8098 19.9058V10.6071C10.8107 9.18295 11.2173 7.78848 11.9819 6.58696C12.7466 5.38544 13.8377 4.42659 15.1275 3.82264C16.4173 3.21869 17.8524 2.99464 19.2649 3.1767C20.6775 3.35876 22.0089 3.93941 23.1034 4.85067C23.0427 4.88379 22.937 4.94215 22.8668 4.98473L14.9024 9.58517C14.7025 9.69878 14.5366 9.86356 14.4215 10.0626C14.3065 10.2616 14.2466 10.4877 14.2479 10.7175L14.2424 21.9419ZM16.071 17.9991L20.4018 15.4978L24.7325 17.9975V22.9985L20.4018 25.4983L16.071 22.9985V17.9991Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></div></div></div><div class="relative flex w-[calc(100%-50px)] flex-col gap-1 md:gap-3 lg:w-[calc(100%-115px)]"><div class="flex flex-grow flex-col gap-3"><div class="min-h-[20px] flex flex-col items-start gap-4 whitespace-pre-wrap break-words"><div class="markdown prose w-full break-words dark:prose-invert light"><p>Sure, I can simulate a scenario based on the parameters you've provided. The simulation will proceed in the following steps for each year:</p><ol><li>The GDP growth will be calculated using the specified annual rate, which is 1.8%.</li><li>The annual budget deficit (4% of GDP) will be added to the existing debt.</li><li>The annual debt service (debt * real interest rate) will be calculated and expressed as a percentage of the GDP.</li></ol><p>I'll assume that the initial total government debt is equal to the non-governmental debt in this case, which is $25 trillion. Let's see how these figures evolve over the next 10 years. The following table presents the calculations:</p><table><thead><tr><th>Year</th><th>GDP (Trillions)</th><th>Total Debt (Trillions)</th><th>Debt-to-GDP Ratio</th><th>Debt Service (Trillions)</th><th>Debt Service as % of GDP</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1</td><td>25.45</td><td>26.00</td><td>1.02</td><td>0.312</td><td>1.23%</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>25.91</td><td>27.04</td><td>1.04</td><td>0.325</td><td>1.25%</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>26.38</td><td>28.13</td><td>1.07</td><td>0.338</td><td>1.28%</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>26.86</td><td>29.27</td><td>1.09</td><td>0.351</td><td>1.31%</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>27.35</td><td>30.47</td><td>1.11</td><td>0.366</td><td>1.34%</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>27.85</td><td>31.72</td><td>1.14</td><td>0.380</td><td>1.36%</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>28.37</td><td>33.02</td><td>1.16</td><td>0.396</td><td>1.40%</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>28.90</td><td>34.38</td><td>1.19</td><td>0.412</td><td>1.43%</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>29.44</td><td>35.79</td><td>1.22</td><td>0.429</td><td>1.46%</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>30.00</td><td>37.26</td><td>1.24</td><td>0.447</td><td>1.49%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Please note that these calculations are based on simplifying assumptions and do not consider many factors that could influence real-world outcomes, such as changes in policy, changes in interest rates, or unexpected economic shocks. Therefore, while this exercise can provide some insight into how debt dynamics might evolve under certain conditions, it's important to view these results as illustrative rather than predictive.</p></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-between lg:block"><div class="text-gray-400 flex self-end lg:self-center justify-center mt-2 gap-2 md:gap-3 lg:gap-1 lg:absolute lg:top-0 lg:translate-x-full lg:right-0 lg:mt-0 lg:pl-2 visible"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="group w-full text-gray-800 dark:text-gray-100 border-b border-black/10 dark:border-gray-900/50 dark:bg-gray-800"><div class="flex p-4 gap-4 text-base md:gap-6 md:max-w-2xl lg:max-w-xl xl:max-w-3xl md:py-6 lg:px-0 m-auto"><div class="flex-shrink-0 flex flex-col relative items-end"><div class="w-[30px]"><div class="relative flex"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; overflow: hidden; width: initial; height: initial; background: none; opacity: 1; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; max-width: 100%;"><img alt="user avatar" decoding="async" data-nimg="intrinsic" class="rounded-sm"></span></div></div></div><div class="relative flex w-[calc(100%-50px)] flex-col gap-1 md:gap-3 lg:w-[calc(100%-115px)]"><div class="flex flex-grow flex-col gap-3"><div class="min-h-[20px] flex flex-col items-start gap-4 whitespace-pre-wrap break-words">in light of the chart above and the data, can you discuss the dispute where Druckenmiller insists the government is headed off a fiscal cliff and his numbers and assumptions prove it , while on the other hand, the Economists maintain a point of view based on the charts numbers, concluding that in a growing economy where the government maintains taxing and deficit spending capabilites, its not a problem at all for the economy to continue financing the debt, paying interest on the debt with plenty left over in the annual budget. </div></div></div></div></div><div class="group w-full text-gray-800 dark:text-gray-100 border-b border-black/10 dark:border-gray-900/50 bg-gray-50 dark:bg-[#444654]"><div class="flex p-4 gap-4 text-base md:gap-6 md:max-w-2xl lg:max-w-xl xl:max-w-3xl md:py-6 lg:px-0 m-auto"><div class="flex-shrink-0 flex flex-col relative items-end"><div class="w-[30px]"><div class="relative p-1 rounded-sm h-[30px] w-[30px] text-white flex items-center justify-center" style="background-color: rgb(171, 104, 255);"><svg width="41" height="41" viewBox="0 0 41 41" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" stroke-width="1.5" class="h-6 w-6" role="img"><title>ChatGPT</title><text x="-9999" y="-9999">ChatGPT</text><path d="M37.5324 16.8707C37.9808 15.5241 38.1363 14.0974 37.9886 12.6859C37.8409 11.2744 37.3934 9.91076 36.676 8.68622C35.6126 6.83404 33.9882 5.3676 32.0373 4.4985C30.0864 3.62941 27.9098 3.40259 25.8215 3.85078C24.8796 2.7893 23.7219 1.94125 22.4257 1.36341C21.1295 0.785575 19.7249 0.491269 18.3058 0.500197C16.1708 0.495044 14.0893 1.16803 12.3614 2.42214C10.6335 3.67624 9.34853 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whitespace-pre-wrap break-words"><div class="markdown prose w-full break-words dark:prose-invert light"><p>The debate between Stanley Druckenmiller and economists such as Paul Krugman, Larry Summers, and Olivier Blanchard essentially boils down to different views on the sustainability of the U.S. national debt.</p><p>Druckenmiller, a conservative investor, warns that the U.S. is approaching a fiscal cliff. He is concerned that the growing national debt and increasing interest payments will consume a substantial portion of the federal budget, leaving less room for other essential government spending. This could potentially lead to a "doom loop" where the government has to borrow more to pay off its existing debt, thus increasing the debt burden further. This perspective tends to be more focused on the nominal interest rates and the growth rate of the debt itself.</p><p>On the other hand, economists like Krugman, Summers, and Blanchard argue that the situation is not as dire. They point out that in a low interest rate environment, the government can service its debt more easily. Furthermore, if the real interest rate (the interest rate after accounting for inflation) is lower than the growth rate of the economy, the debt-to-GDP ratio could stabilize or even decrease over time, despite running budget deficits. This is because the economy's capacity to generate revenue and thus service the debt is growing faster than the debt itself.</p><p>In the chart above, even though the debt and debt service payments increase every year, the debt service as a percentage of GDP only increases slightly from 1.23% to 1.49% over a 10-year period. This is because the GDP is also growing every year. If the government maintains its taxing and spending capabilities, and if the real interest rate remains below the growth rate, the debt burden could be manageable.</p><p>However, this optimistic scenario depends on several key assumptions, including continued GDP growth and low interest rates. If these conditions change — for instance, if interest rates rise significantly or if the economy enters a recession — the debt burden could become more challenging to manage.</p><p>In conclusion, the debate between Druckenmiller and these economists represents two different perspectives on the same issue. Both are valid and shed light on different aspects of the national debt problem. It's a complex issue with many moving parts, and the eventual outcome will likely depend on a multitude of factors, not just the ones discussed here.</p></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-between lg:block"><div class="text-gray-400 flex self-end lg:self-center justify-center mt-2 gap-2 md:gap-3 lg:gap-1 lg:absolute lg:top-0 lg:translate-x-full lg:right-0 lg:mt-0 lg:pl-2 visible"></div></div></div></div></div> <div class="toggle"><input id="toggle" type="checkbox" /><label for="toggle"></label></div> <script> function decode(array) {   const ua = new Uint8Array(array);   return URL.createObjectURL(new Blob([ua], {type : "image/jpeg"})); } const avatar_data = {   '1x': 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