Created
March 14, 2018 17:05
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Monty Hall Problem Simulation
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## Monty Hall Problem | |
## https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem | |
## | |
## A simulation intended to prove the Monty Hall Solution wrong | |
## (that switching selection after one door is revealed increases | |
## the odd from 1/3 to 2/3), ended up proving it right. | |
## | |
## Result of running run(1000) 100 times: 0.67(+-)0.02 | |
## | |
import random, statistics | |
def monty(): | |
car = random.choice([0,1,2]) | |
pick = random.choice([0,1,2]) | |
no_car = [0,1,2] | |
no_car.remove(car) | |
if car==pick: ## if car==pick, randomly remove one of the other 2 | |
remove= random.choice( no_car ) | |
else: ## Otherwise, remove the one neither car nor pick | |
remove = no_car | |
remove.remove(pick) | |
remove=remove[0] | |
remain = [0,1,2] | |
remain.remove(remove) ## The remaining 2 after one door is revealed | |
switchpick = remain | |
switchpick.remove(pick) | |
return [car, pick, remove, switchpick[0]] | |
def run(n=1000): | |
runs = [ monty() for i in range(n) ] | |
switched = [ (car==switchpick and 1) or 0 for car,pick,remove,switchpick in runs ] | |
unswitched = [ (car==pick and 1) or 0 for car,pick,remove,switchpick in runs ] | |
#return sum(unswitched)/n | |
return sum(switched)/n | |
## Test run(1000) k times | |
k = 100 | |
result = [ run() for i in range(k)] | |
print( "{:.2f}(+-){:.2f}".format(sum(result)/k, statistics.stdev( result) )) |
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