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index.html
<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en-us">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"/>
<title>Test Page</title>
<link rel="shortcut icon" href="/assets/img/favicon.ico" />
<meta prefix="og:http://ogp.me/ns#" property="og:image" content="https://www.entsoe.eu/Style%20Library/EntsoePublishingBranding/Images/entsoe-logo1.png" />
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/assets/css/app.css">
<script src="//use.edgefonts.net/source-sans-pro;merriweather:n3,n4,n7,n9.js"></script>
<style type="text/css">
</style>
</head>
<body>
<div class="global-header column
">
<a href="/" class="global-header-logo">
<img src="/assets/img/ee-logo.png" alt="ENTSO-E logo" />
</a>
<nav class="nav-global-secondary">
<ul class="vertical medium-horizontal align-right">
<li>
<a href="#" >TIER 1</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://contacts.entsoe.eu/Pages/ExtranetPortalHome.aspx" class="button small login">Login</a></li>
</ul>
</nav>
</div>
<script type="text/javascript" src="/assets/js/app.js"></script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="/assets/js/jquery.easing.min.js"></script>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://maxcdn.bootstrapcdn.com/font-awesome/4.5.0/css/font-awesome.min.css" />
<style type="text/css">
.global-header {background:rgb(255,255,255);}
h1 {font-size: 2em;}
.fill-grey {
background-color: #f8f8f8;
}
@media screen and (max-width: 39.9375em) {
.column, .columns {
padding-left: 2rem;
padding-right: 2rem;
}
}
@media screen and (min-width: 40em) {
.section {
padding: 4em 0;
}
}
.matrix table th {
text-align: left;
}
/* MATRIX Table CSS */
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.matrix table th {font-weight: 700; }
.matrix table th.col {text-align: left;}
.matrix table tbody tr, .matrix table tbody tr:nth-child(even) {background: transparent;}
.matrix thead {border: none;}
.dark .matrix table td,.dark .matrix table th {
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}
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}
.matrix table td:first-child {
border-left: none;
font-weight: 700;
text-align: left;
}
.matrix table td:last-child{border-right:none;}
table td.numeric,table th.numeric {text-align: right;}
/*column sizing*/
#eq {margin-bottom: 20px;}
#eq .block {min-height: 180px; padding: 20px 25px;}
.bleed-section {
margin-left: -15%;
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margin-right: calc(50% - 49vw - 0.9375rem);
}
.custom-nav {
background: 0 0;
-webkit-transition: background .5s ease-in-out,padding .5s ease-in-out;
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.active {font-weight: 900;}
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color: #fff;
background: 0 0;
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transition: background .3s ease-in-out;
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h1.page-title {font-size: 3rem;}
</style>
<div class="bleed-section" style="background-size:cover;color:#fff;height:40em;background-image:url(http://rdmonitoring.entsoe.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/header_rational_dark.jpg);">
<div class="row section column">
<h1 class="page-title" id="tyndp-future-system-perspective">TYNDP Future System perspective</h1>
<p>INSERT LARGE BACKGROUND IMAGE…</p>
<div class="text-center" style="margin-top:10em;"><a href="#how-to-analyse-long-term-situations-and-identify-solutions" class="page-scroll button large btn-circle"><i class="fa fa-angle-down"></i></a></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="row section">
<h1 id="how-to-analyse-long-term-situations-and-identify-solutions">How to analyse long-term situations and identify solutions?</h1>
<div class="medium-6 column medium-collapse">
<p>Planning of grid infrastructure is based on system analyses at a very-long term horizon. Investment decisions result in development of projects which are operational in about 10 to 15 years, and should remain operational for many decades thereafter. The future is inherently uncertain; even more the further ahead you look. However, transmission assets are planned to be used for more than 50 years and their costs takes many years to be recovered through the benefits they bring to society. In a robust planning process it is essential to test the project portfolio on a variety of scenarios so that optimal decisions are taken, and benefits can be reaped.</p>
</div>
<div class="medium-6 column medium-collapse">
<p>Understanding progress of technology, fuel and power plant activity as well as the final energy consumption in peak and total, all play a significant role in identifying investments needs and valuing transmission solutions. Policy, economics, and technological development among others have as such a key role in the development of both generation and demand. These uncertainties are linked to a range of assumptions. Each set of assumptions defines a plausible future. A set of scenarios gives a powerful tool to analyse future needs and to handle uncertainty inherent to long-term planning.</p>
</div>
</div>
<!--![](/assets/img/ty/image1.png)-->
<div class="boxes row medium-up-4" data-equalizer="" data-equalize-on="medium" id="eq">
<div class="column" data-equalizer-watch="">
<div class="block fill-grey">
<strong>Present</strong><br />
Observable
</div>
</div>
<div class="column" data-equalizer-watch="">
<div class="block fill-grey">
<strong>Short Term</strong><br />
Availability of power plants<br />
Weather Conditions (impact on demand and PV/wind production)<br />
</div>
</div>
<div class="column" data-equalizer-watch="">
<div class="block fill-grey">
<strong>Mid Term</strong><br />
Climatic Conditions (dry/wet hyrdo years)<br />
Fuel price swings<br />
</div>
</div>
<div class="column" data-equalizer-watch="">
<div class="block fill-grey">
<strong>Long-term</strong><br />
Energy Policy<br />
Economic Cycles<br />
Carbon price handling<br />
Technological development<br />
Electrification<br />
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div data-sticky-container="" class="fill-grey">
<div class="sticky custom-nav" id="example" data-sticky="" data-margin-top="0" style="width:100%;" data-margin-bottom="0" data-top-anchor="first" data-btm-anchor="destroy:bottom">
<div class="row column">
<nav data-magellan="">
<ul class="horizontal menu expanded">
<li><a class="page-scroll" href="#first">Time Horizons</a></li>
<li><a class="page-scroll" href="#second">Different Scenarios</a></li>
<li><a class="page-scroll" href="#third">Scenario Development</a></li>
<li><a class="page-scroll" href="#fourth">Different Perspectives</a></li>
</ul>
</nav>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--<div class="row column" markdown="1">
* toc
{:toc}
</div>-->
<div class="section fill-grey" id="first" data-magellan-target="first">
<div class="row column large-8 small-centered">
<h1 class="text-center" id="which-time-horizons-does-tyndp-2016-analyze">Which time horizons does TYNDP 2016 analyze?</h1>
<p>ENTSO-E prepares a Europe-wide Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) every two years. TYNDP2016 focuses on the year 2030, as was already the scope of analysis in TYNDP2014. European ambitious targets as set by the Council in October 2014 on renewables, energy efficiency, decarbonisation and interconnection targets, give a stronger direction to the studies and resulting recommendations for grid development up to 2030. ENTSO-E’s TYNDP starts from an overall system view and demonstrates the need and the value of grid infrastructure in this context. The objective is to give complete, unbiased and transparent information to decision makers and the general public, and to enable these targets to be met. For the long-term horizon 2030, four contrasting ‘Visions’ are presented which differ in terms of energy governance and RES ambitions.</p>
<p>In addition a mid-term 2020 ‘best estimate scenario’ is covered to allow grid infrastructure candidates to be valued at a mid-term horizon as well. This new scenario is called “Expected Progress” and covers the period to 2020. It is defined as the last point in time before uncertainties increase to a level where a broader envelope of potential futures is required. Beyond 2020, the 4 Visions provide the envelope within which the future is likely to occur but strictly do not have probability of occurrence attached to them.</p>
<p>The new TYNDP2016 scenarios show a natural evolution compared to the earlier TYNDP2014 Visions, taking stock of updates in national scenarios and taking a leap forward in the construction of pan-European top-down scenarios.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="section" id="second" data-magellan-target="second">
<div class="row column large-8 small-centered">
<h1 id="which-are-the-main-storylines-of-the-tyndp2016-scenarios">Which are the main storylines of the TYNDP2016 scenarios?</h1>
<p>The four 2030 Visions and the expected-progress 2020 scenario storylines were co-created with stakeholders in a series of public workshops. There is an evolution from the TYNDP 2014 scenario set, integrating new energy policies and various suggestions from past TYNDP. The four Visions are built around two similar axes:</p>
<ul>
<li>perspective of measures for decarbonisation of the energy system (more national or more European focused);</li>
<li>European ambitions and targets to reduce greenhouse gas emission.</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="/assets/img/ty/image2.png" alt="" /></p>
<p>What can I find in each scenario?
All five scenarios give a level of detail for the electricity sector across Europe covering</p>
<ul>
<li>Installed capacities, per technology, per country</li>
<li>Energy supplied on yearly basis per technology, per country</li>
<li>Demand profiles for full year, with hourly resolution</li>
<li>Import/export energy balances for each country</li>
<li>Assumptions on generation efficiencies, fuel prices and carbon cost</li>
</ul>
<p>All details are accessible in the TYNDP2016 Scenario Development Report.
Some overall key takeaway figures are the following.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="section">
<div class="row">
<div class="medium-6 columns">
<p><strong>Energy produced per technology in each scenario</strong></p>
<p><img src="/assets/img/ty/image3.png" alt="" /><br />
Prospects for total energy production in 2030 range from the 2020 expected level of … TWh to … TWh in the Vision 4. Visions 1 and 2 see a substantial share of coal based generation, while carbon pricing in Vision 3 and 4 shifts this generation towards gas-fired plants.
Visions 3 and 4 also unlock more generation from renewables as wind and solar due to more favourable economic conditions and stimuli, and in Vision 4 a much more enhanced pan-European coordination of support schemes.</p>
</div>
<div class="medium-6 columns">
<p><strong>Demand evolution and %RES share</strong></p>
<p><img src="/assets/img/ty/image4.png" alt="" /><br />
Total electricity consumption for 2030 ranges from 2020 levels (… TWh) to an increase of … % across the coming decade up to … TWh. Taking into account renewable based generation, this results in a %RES share of 44% in Vision 1 up to 59% in Vision 3 and 4. Note that Vision 3 is characterized by favourable economic conditions focusing on energy efficient measures. If energy savings materialize less, the resulting %RES share will drop. In any case all 2030 Visions are considered in line with the EU RES target for 2030.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="section fill-grey">
<div class="row">
<div class="medium-3 columns">
<p><strong>Investment drive for renewables</strong></p>
<p>(one Vision only? Difficult to show them all in concise way)
Levels of installed generation rise intensely up to … MW across the ENTSO-E perimeter for respectively … Conventional thermal generation …</p>
<p>Evolutions in installed capacity translate into different patterns of import/export for all countries. Across the four vision storylines several countries see a reversal of flows, which will be analysed in more detail for the transmission assets planned in the TYNDP2030 grid. This analysis also takes into account the temporary peak flows occurring in the year. The country balances reflected in the maps already take into account the mature TYNDP investments (mid-term and long-term projects, see other TYNDP2016 reports for more insight).</p>
</div>
<div class="medium-8 columns">
<p><img src="/assets/img/ty/image5.png" alt="" /><br /></p>
<div id="my-graph"></div>
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min.js"></script>
<script type="text/javascript">
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Plotly.plot('my-graph', data1['data'], data1['layout']);
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</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="section row medium-up-2">
<h2 class="text-center">Country balances</h2>
<div class="column">
<p><img src="/assets/img/ty/image7.png" alt="" /></p>
</div>
<div class="column">
<p><img src="/assets/img/ty/image8.png" alt="" /></p>
</div>
<div class="column">
<p><img src="/assets/img/ty/image9.png" alt="" /></p>
</div>
<div class="column">
<p><img src="/assets/img/ty/image10.png" alt="" /></p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="section row">
<div class="medium-7 columns">
<p><img src="/assets/img/ty/image11.png" alt="" /></p>
</div>
<div class="medium-4 columns">
<h3 id="co2-emissions-in-the-electricity-sector">CO2 emissions in the electricity sector</h3>
<p><br />Carbon emissions drop substantially across all four 2030 Visions as can be expected from the shift to more RES-based generation. Compared to today’s level the decrease ranges from … to … %, all contributing to the EU-wide target of 40% total carbon reduction, and the overall roadmap for decarbonisation of the entire European electricity sector.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="section fill-grey" id="third" data-magellan-target="third">
<div class="medium-7 small-centered columns">
<h1 id="third">How were these scenarios developed?</h1>
<h2 id="involved-actors">Involved actors</h2>
<p>The TYNDP 2030 Visions do not aim to present a most likely, nor a more desired snapshot of the future power system. They cover a set of plausible futures which allows to identify future investment needs and anchor investment decisions. The development of a limited set of representative scenarios is a process which can only be done with involvement of all impacted stakeholders, who all have their own perspective and know-how.</p>
<p>In the TYNDP2016 process input was taken via various channels</p>
<div class="matrix">
<table>
<tr>
<th>Individual stakeholders, organizations</th>
<td>Three public workshops, and a written consultation</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>European sector associations</th>
<td>Network Development Stakeholder Group</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>National perspectives</th>
<td>National scenarios created with TSOs, NRAs, Ministries, collected via all ENTSO-E members</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Pan-European views</th>
<td>Regular bilateral/trilateral meetings with EC and ACER</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Process views</th>
<td>Regular meetings with ACER and an informal opinion from an NRA infrastructure expert team</td>
</tr>
</table>
</div>
<p>At the time of publication of this report, the process for the co-creation of the TYNDP2018 scenarios is initiated. In this process, ENTSO-E hopes to continue and intensify the collaboration with the entire sector.</p>
<p>These scenarios are evidently are a cornerstone of all further TYNDP scenarios. In addition, it is a sign of recognition when various researchers and institutions in their own analyses are applying these as well. Examples:</p>
<ul>
<li>…</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="section column" id="fourth" data-magellan-target="forth">
<div class="medium-7 small-centered">
<h2 id="fourth">The value of different perspectives</h2>
<p>A representative set of future energy scenarios requires input from a representative set of stakeholders to shape the storylines and assumptions. Eventually this translates to different ways of looking at plausible futures. The TYNDP is characterized by scenarios with a stronger national focus, and by others with a stronger European balance. This is not a story of right and wrong, or likely versus less likely. Energy policies, decisions, support measures, oppositions, etc… are shaped both at local and European level. There is value in shaping scenarios along both perspectives. Visions 1 and 3 have a more ‘bottom-up’ perspective, and are essentially based on national scenarios, slightly adapted or selected to fit a common storyline. Visions 2 and 4 have a strong ‘top-down’ perspective. The full TYNDP2016 Scenario Development Report sheds light on how the top-down scenarios are derived from bottom-up ones, by centralizing hydro generation investments, re-allocating RES generation across countries to optimize consumer benefit, and reducing thermal generation overcapacity to more profitable levels. In essence, such exercise shows how a pan-European optimal coordination of support schemes could impact present national scenarios. There is a schism between both levels of policies and supported scenarios; while national and pan-European TYNDPs need to ensure consistency and propose robust investment decisions.</p>
<h1 id="is-there-a-trend-in-scenarios-from-one-tyndp-to-the-next">Is there a trend in scenarios from one TYNDP to the next?</h1>
<p>The power sector evolves, and TYNDP scenarios (updated every two years) need to adapt where relevant. The TYNDP2016 scenarios for 2030 (‘Visions’) use a similar naming and framework as in TYNDP2014. Though the many differences in underlying storyline and data, require caution when comparing planning studies and project CBA assessments on similarly named scenarios.</p>
<p>Some overall changes in the TYNDP2016 scenario set compared to 2014 are the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Demand had been kept at a lower level, in particular for Visions 2 and 3. This decision was taken together with many stakeholders to visualize possible situations where economic favourable conditions do not simply result in higher consumption, but rather in additional efforts for efficiency measures.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Fuel prices have been updated based on international reference sources, as have carbon emission levies. Next TYNDPs will likely have to catch up with new drives as triggered by COP21 and forthcoming EU measures.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The European 2030 target for renewables resulted in higher shares of RES in the Visions 1 and 2. For Visions 3 and 4 the installation and energy generation levels of solar and wind have been scaled back, though with a compensation of lower demand levels, the overall percentage indicators (%RES/load) remain at similar levels of 55 to 59%.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Also national scenarios are constantly updated, sometime with quite substantial impact.</p>
<p>(Examples of RG)</p>
<p>Long-term system analysis and robust grid planning is a complex task. There is no single algorithm to provide a no-regret solution. It requires various types of analyses, on diverse scenarios, and with extensive interaction of impacted stakeholders and experts. The entire energy sector already realizes tomorrow’s market design needs to adapt and system security coordination reinforced, to ensure all energy objectives can be met in an optimal way. Also long-term grid planning needs to account more than ever how uncertainty can be addressed, system security risks mitigated, and investment decisions in a system with ever increasing zero-marginal cost generation promoted. ENTSO-E takes on board feedback from preceding TYNDPs and scenario exercises for each new edition. Also planning studies, technical resilience analyses and project CBA assessments need to evolve.</p>
<h1 id="where-can-i-access-more-detailed-data">Where can I access more detailed data?</h1>
<ul>
<li>Scenario Development Report, published November 2015</li>
<li>Market Modelling Data set, published November 2015
<a id="destroy" href="#"></a></li>
</ul>
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<div style="position: absolute; left: -5000px;" aria-hidden="true"><input type="text" name="b_498429987654de03679e453a1_da85e6735a" tabindex="-1" value=""></div>
</div>
<!--End mc_embed_signup-->
</form>
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</div>
</div>
<div class="column global-footer">
<img class="logo" src="https://www.entsoe.eu/PublishingImages/General%20website%20images/logo_guidelines/entose_logo_white.png" alt="ENTSO-E logo" />
<small>ENTSO-E - The european network for transmission system operators electricity is a non-profit organisation, &copy; 2016 All rights reserved. <br />
Provide website feedback <a href="https://github.com">on Github</a> or to <a href="mailto:web@entsoe.eu">web@entsoe.eu</a></small>
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