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Last active February 8, 2018 04:22
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The purchasing parity of the American dollar ...

Dying Bull

If you are a commercial entity from Europe and you wish to do business in America, then at some point leading up to the settlement date of your transaction you will have to purchase USD.

Likewise, if I am a commercial entity domiciled in America and I wish to contract with any of the almost thirty (30) countries of the EU that currently use the euro as their national coin, then I will have to eventually purchase euros, will I not?

This tit-for-tat exchange of currencies is what makes a currency "dear", or "cheap".

That, and the purchasing power parity of a currency on a global basis.

Pres. Trump and Sec. Mnuchin want to cheapen the American dollar to boost perceived available export prowess.

Plus, they are tossing tariffs back into the mix a-la the Hoover administration of the late '20's.

It takes almost a generation of Americans to forget the sins of their forefathers and grandfathers.

Was it not the Frenchman Alec Tocqueville who visited America in the 1800's who is credited with the tidbit of wisdom ...

"Those who fail to remember the past, are doomed to repeat it!"?

When the machines that execute the algorithms that factor in the market's parameters start to flash "red", do you really think investors will start to repudiate their ETFs?

Around 60% of all household equity in America is now tied directly or indirectly to the stock market.

We have not seen these levels of "dumb" money since the '20's.

Eddie Stubbie was an intern back in the '20's with the regional wirehouse Newhard, Cook in St Louis.

And, he worked the wire for Harry Newhard all the way up to its acquisition in the late '80's by another regional.

When asked about the market of the late '20's ...

Eddie, an eyewitness to the calamity stated 'Yes, there was an initial crash. But, then it went way up beyond that, and then the collapse."

What Eddie was describing was the "running of the shorts" prior to the demise of the bull.

When you see the "head" form on the head-and-shoulders chart formation, when the public greed for stocks is not unlike the public greed we have experienced in the crypto currency markets recently, then leave the other risk takers fiddle with the "right" shoulder.

For sure as the sun sets and the moon rises, what we are experiencing during the first week of Feb #2018 is at least the "left" shoulder of a dying bull.

King Solomon once wrote, "There is nothing new under the sun, no not one thing."

Back in the '20's the "hot" technology then was radio and fledgeling televisions.

Today, we have blockchain.

Remember, the last phase of an investment "bubble" is REPUDIATION.

And, we ain't there yet.

So, "keep-a Ur powder dry, piple!"

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