Freethought Election

freethought.R

## Hex Map of Nones ####

cces18 <- read_dta("D://cces18.dta")

www <- cces18 %>% 
  mutate(nones = car::recode(religpew, "9:11=1; else =0")) %>% 
  mutate(state = to_factor(inputstate)) %>% 
  group_by(state) %>% 
  mean_ci(nones, wt = commonweight) 


library(geogrid)
library(raster)


US_shp <- rgdal::readOGR("D:\\cb_2017_us_state_5m.shp")
US_shp_cropped <- crop(US_shp, extent(-124.848974, -66.885444, 24.396308, 49.384358)) 
# graph <- graph %>% mutate(state = as.factor(state))
US_shp_cropped@data <- left_join(US_shp_cropped@data, www, by = c("NAME" = "state"))



new_cells_hex <- calculate_grid(shape = US_shp_cropped, grid_type = "hexagonal", seed = 1)
result_hex <- assign_polygons(US_shp_cropped, new_cells_hex)


clean <- function(shape) {
  shape@data$id = rownames(shape@data)
  shape.points = fortify(shape, region="id")
  shape.df = merge(shape.points, shape@data, by="id")
}

result_hex_df <- clean(result_hex)


font_add_google("Abel", "font")
showtext_auto()

ggplot(result_hex_df) +
  geom_polygon(aes(x = long, y = lat, fill = mean, group = group), color = "black") +
  geom_text(aes(V1, V2, label = STUSPS), size = 5, color = "white") +
  scale_fill_gradient(low = "#EB5757", high = "#000000", name = "Percent Nones", labels = percent) + 
  theme_void() + 
  coord_equal() +
  theme(legend.text=element_text(size=34)) +
  labs(title = "Percent of Nones in Each State", caption = "Data: CCES 2018") +
  theme(plot.title = element_text(family = "font", size = 24, vjust =2, face = "bold")) +
  theme(plot.caption = element_text(family = "font", size = 12)) +
  theme(legend.title = element_text(family = "font", size = 12, vjust =1.2, hjust = 0, face = "bold"))  +
  theme(legend.text=element_text(family = "font", face = "bold", size = 10)) +
  # theme(legend.position="none") + 
  theme(plot.margin=unit(c(0,.5,0,.5),"cm")) +
  ggsave("E://hexmap_nones.png")


library(socsci)
library(sf)

get_congress_map <- function(cong=113) {
  tmp_file <- tempfile()
  tmp_dir  <- tempdir()
  zp <- sprintf("http://cdmaps.polisci.ucla.edu/shp/districts%03i.zip",cong)
  download.file(zp, tmp_file)
  unzip(zipfile = tmp_file, exdir = tmp_dir)
  fpath <- paste(tmp_dir, sprintf("districtShapes/districts%03i.shp",cong), sep = "/")
  st_read(fpath)
}

cd114 <- get_congress_map(114)

small <- cd114 %>% 
  mutate(DISTRICT = as.character(DISTRICT)) %>%
  mutate(STATENAME = as.character(STATENAME)) %>% 
  select(STATENAME, DISTRICT)

free <- tribble(
  ~STATENAME, ~ DISTRICT, ~free, 
  "California", 2, "yes", 
  "Maryland", 8, "yes", 
  "Tennessee", 9, "yes", 
  "Washington", 7,"yes", 
  "Georgia", 4, "yes", 
  "Michigan", 5, "yes", 
  "California", 19, "yes", 
  "California", 9, "yes", 
  "District Of Columbia", 98, "yes", 
  "Wisconsin", 2, "yes"
)


free <- free %>% 
  mutate(DISTRICT = as.character(DISTRICT))

map <- left_join(small, free)

map <- map %>% 
  filter(STATENAME != "Hawaii") %>% 
  filter(STATENAME != "Alaska")




register_google(key = "AIzaSyA4dSxmRotR0G_UKArfyp6yO2sDOBugDG4", account_type = "premium", day_limit = 100000)
 
 
 myMap <- get_map(location = 'united states', zoom = 2)

ggplot() + 
  geom_sf(data = map, aes(fill = as.factor(free)), inherit.aes = FALSE, lwd =0) +
  coord_sf(datum = NA) +
  theme_gg("Abel") +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
        panel.background = element_blank(), axis.line = element_line(colour = "white")) +
  labs(x= "", y = "", title = "Freethought Caucus Congressional Districts", caption = "@ryanburge") +
  theme(legend.position = "none") +
  theme(plot.title = element_text(family = "font")) +
  ggsave("E://trying_cong_map.png") 


ft <- read_csv("E://freethought.csv") %>% clean_names()

ft$state <- gsub("\\s*\\w*$", "", ft$district)
ft$state <- gsub("At-", "", ft$state)
ft$state <- gsub("\\'s", "", ft$state)
ft$state <- gsub("\\'", "", ft$state)
ft$state <- gsub(" ", "", ft$state)


library(haven)
library(labelled)
cces18 <- read_dta("D://cces18.dta")

www <- cces18 %>% 
  mutate(nones = car::recode(religpew, "9:11=1; else =0")) %>% 
  mutate(state = to_factor(inputstate)) %>% 
  group_by(state) %>% 
  mean_ci(nones, wt = commonweight) %>% 
  select(state, none_pct = mean) %>% 
  mutate(state = as.character(state))
  
ft1 <- left_join(ft, www)

ft1$med_income <- gsub("\\$", "", ft1$median_income)
ft1$med_income <- gsub("\\,", "", ft1$med_income)
ft1$med_income <- as.numeric(ft1$med_income)

reg1 <- glm(free ~ med_income + none_pct + black + latino + bachelors_degree_or_higher, data = ft1, family = "binomial")
  
gg1 <- effect_plot(reg1, pred = none_pct, interval = TRUE)  

gg1 +
  theme_gg("Abel") +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent) +
  scale_x_continuous(labels = percent) +
  theme(plot.title = element_text(size = 14)) +
  labs(x = "Percent of Nones in a State", y = "Likelihood of Election", title = "Predicting the Likelihood of Electing a Free Thought Caucus Member", caption = "@ryanburge") +
  ggsave("E://effect_plot_ath.png")

mov <- tibble::tribble(
       ~name, ~margin,
   "Huffman",      54,
    "Raskin",      38,
     "Cohen",      60,
   "Jayapal",      67,
   "Johnson",      57,
    "Kildee",      24,
   "Lofgren",      47,
  "McNerney",      13,
    "Norton",      83,
     "Pocan",     100
  )

mov %>% 
  ggplot(., aes(x = reorder(name, -margin), y = margin, fill = margin)) +
  geom_col(color = "black") +
  theme_gg("Abel") +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = function(x) paste0(x, "%")) +
  scale_fill_gradient(low = "firebrick3", high = "dodgerblue3") +
  geom_text(aes(y = margin + 3, label = paste0(margin, '%')), position = position_dodge(width = .9), size = 4, family = "font") +
  labs(y = "Margin of Victory", x = "", title = "Margin of Victory for Free Thought Caucus", caption = "@ryanburge\nData: Ballotpedia") +
  ggsave("E://marginofvic.png", type = "cairo-png", width = 6)