Life Cycle Effect

life_cycle_full.R

gg <- gss %>% 
  mutate(trad = frcode(nofaith == 1 ~ "Nones", 
                       TRUE ~ "Others")) %>% 
  group_by(trad, year) %>% 
  mean_ci(attend, wt = wtssall)

gg %>% 
  filter(trad == "Others") %>% 
  ggplot(., aes(x = year, y = mean)) +
  geom_point(size=4, color="white") +
  geom_point(size=3, shape=1, alpha=.5) +
  geom_point(size=2, shape=19) +
  geom_line() +
  geom_smooth(method = lm, alpha  = .1, size = 0, span = .5) +
  geom_line(stat = "smooth", method = lm, linetype = "dashed", show.legend = FALSE, color = "darkorchid", alpha = .45) +
  theme_gg("Abel") +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = c(3,4,5), labels = c("Several Times a Year", "Once a Month", "2-3x a Month"), limits = c(3,5)) +
  labs(x = "", y = "", title = "Average Church Attendance", subtitle = "Excluding the Nones", caption = "@ryanburge\nData: GSS 1972-2018") +
  ggsave("E://attend_year_gss.png", type = "cairo-png")



fff1 <- gss %>% 
  filter(year >= 1972 & year <= 1982) %>% 
  group_by(age) %>% 
  mean_ci(attend) %>% 
  mutate(years = "1972-1982")

fff2 <- gss %>% 
  filter(year >= 1982 & year <= 1992) %>% 
  group_by(age) %>% 
  mean_ci(attend) %>% 
  mutate(years = "1982-1992")

fff3 <- gss %>% 
  filter(year >= 1992 & year <= 2002) %>% 
  group_by(age) %>% 
  mean_ci(attend) %>% 
  mutate(years = "1992-2002")

fff4 <- gss %>% 
  filter(year >= 2002 & year <= 2018) %>% 
  group_by(age) %>% 
  mean_ci(attend) %>% 
  mutate(years = "2002-2018")

graph <- bind_df("fff")

graph %>% 
  filter(age <= 80) %>% 
  ggplot(., aes(x = age, y = mean, group = years, color = years)) +
  scale_color_tableau() + 
  # scale_color_manual(values = c("#2C3531", "#116466", "#D9B08C", "#5D001E")) +
  geom_smooth(linetype = "twodash", se = FALSE) +
  theme_gg("Abel") +
  theme(legend.position = c(0.8, 0.2)) +
  guides(color=guide_legend(title="New Legend Title")) +
  annotate("text", x= 69.4, y = 3.42, label = "Survey Years", size = 6, family = "font") +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = c(3,4,5), labels = c("Several Times a Year", "Once a Month", "2-3x a Month")) +
  labs(x= "Age of Respondent", y = "Average Church Attendance", title = "Has the Life Cycle Effect Diminished?", caption = "@ryanburge\nData: GSS 1972-2018") +
  ggsave("E://life_cycle.png")




gss <- gss %>% 
  mutate(cohorts = car::recode(birthyr, "1883:1899 = '1883-1899';
                                      1900:1904 = '1900-1904';
                                      1905:1909 = '1905-1909';
                                      1910:1914 = '1910-1914';
                                      1915:1919 = '1915-1919';
                                      1920:1924 = '1920-1924';
                                      1925:1929 = '1925-1929';
                                      1930:1934 = '1930-1934';
                                      1935:1939 = '1935-1939';
                                      1940:1944 = '1940-1944';
                                      1945:1949 = '1945-1949';
                                      1950:1954 = '1950-1954';
                                      1955:1959 = '1955-1959';
                                      1960:1964 = '1960-1964';
                                      1965:1969 = '1965-1969';
                                      1970:1974 = '1970-1974';
                                      1975:1979 = '1975-1979';
                                      1980:1984 = '1980-1984';
                                      1985:1989 = '1985-1989';
                                      1990:1994 = '1990-1994';
                                      1995:2000 = '1995-2000'; else = NA")) %>% 
  mutate(decades = frcode(age >= 18 & age <= 25 ~ "18\nto\n25",
                          age >= 26 & age <= 35 ~ "26\nto\n35", 
                          age >= 36 & age <= 45 ~ "36\nto\n45",
                          age >= 46 & age <= 55 ~ "46\nto\n55",
                          age >= 56 & age <= 65 ~ "56\nto\n65", 
                          age >= 66             ~ "66\nand\n Older")) %>% 
  mutate(cohorts = as.factor(cohorts)) %>%  mutate(years = frcode(year >= 1972 & year <= 1979 ~ "1970's",
                                                                  year >= 1980 & year <= 1989 ~ "1980's",
                                                                  year >= 1990 & year <= 1999 ~ "1990's",
                                                                  year >= 2000 & year <= 2009 ~ "2000's",
                                                                  year >= 2010 & year <= 2019 ~ "2010's"))


graph <- gss %>% 
  group_by(cohorts, decades) %>% 
  mean_ci(attend, wt = wtssall) %>% 
  ungroup(cohorts, decades)


graph %>% 
  filter(cohorts != "NA") %>% 
  filter(cohorts != "1883-1899") %>% 
  ggplot(., aes(x = decades, y = mean, group = 1)) +
  geom_point(shape = 21) +
  geom_line(aes(color = cohorts)) +
  theme_gg("Abel") +
  scale_colour_tableau(palette = "Tableau 20") +
  scale_fill_tableau(palette = "Tableau 20") +
  facet_wrap(~ cohorts) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower, ymax = upper, color = cohorts, fill = cohorts), alpha = .4) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8), labels = c("Never","Less than Once a Year", "Once a Year","Several Times a Year","Once a Month","2-3x a Month","Nearly Every Week", "Every Week","More than Once a Week")) +
  labs(x = "Age of Respondents", y = "Average Church Attendance", title = "Cohort Analysis of the Life Cycle Effect", caption = "GSS 1972-2018") +
  ggsave("E://lifecycle_effect.png", type = "cairo-png", width = 10, height = 10)


life <- tribble(
  ~age, ~attend, ~group, 
  "Under 18", 7, "Option 1",
  "Young Adulthood", 3, "Option 1",
  "Married w/Children", 7, "Option 1",
  "Empty Nest", 4.5, "Option 1",
  "Retirement", 3.5, "Option 1",
  "Under 18", 7, "Option 2",
  "Young Adulthood", 3, "Option 2",
  "Married w/Children", 7, "Option 2",
  "Empty Nest", 8, "Option 2",
  "Retirement", 9, "Option 2",
  
)

life <- life %>% 
  mutate(age = as.factor(age))

life$age <- factor(life$age, levels = c("Under 18", "Young Adulthood", "Married w/Children", "Empty Nest", "Retirement"))

life %>% 
  ggplot(., aes(x = age, y = attend, group = group, color = group)) +
  geom_point(size=4, color="white") +
  geom_point(size=3, shape=1, alpha=.5) +
  geom_point(size=2, shape=19) +
  theme_gg("Abel") +
  geom_line(size = 1) +
  scale_color_npg() +
  theme(axis.text.y = element_blank(),
        axis.ticks.y=element_blank()) +
  scale_y_continuous(limits = c(1, 10)) +
  labs(x = "", y = "Church Attendance", title = "Visualizing the Life Cycle Effect", caption = "@ryanburge") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 1.5, linetype = "dashed") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2.5, linetype = "dashed") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 3.5, linetype = "dashed") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 4.5, linetype = "dashed") +
  add_text(x = 5.1, y = 4.1, word = "Drifting\nAway", sz = 4) +
  add_text(x = 5.1, y = 9.7, word = "Drawing\nCloser", sz = 4) +
  add_text(x = 1, y = 9.7, word = "Parents Make\nYou Go", sz = 4) +
  add_text(x = 2, y = 9.7, word = "Rebelling +\nFinding Your Way", sz = 4) +
  add_text(x = 3, y = 9.7, word = "Want Children\nTo Have\nMoral Foundation", sz = 4) +
  add_text(x = 4, y = 9.7, word = "Do I Really\nLike Church?", sz = 4) +
  ggsave("E://life_example.png", width = 8)