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Very simple model to try to calculate how long it'll be before everyone on the planet has had Covid
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| #!/usr/bin/env ruby | |
| require 'active_support/all' | |
| ACTIVE_CASES = 25000000.to_f | |
| TOTAL_WORLD_CASES = 260000000.to_f | |
| INCUBATION_DAYS = 3 | |
| RECOVERY_DAYS = 10 | |
| WORLD_POPULATION = 8600000000 | |
| R = 1.135 | |
| currently_infected = ACTIVE_CASES | |
| incubating = [] | |
| recovering = [ ACTIVE_CASES ] | |
| total_infected = TOTAL_WORLD_CASES | |
| day = 0 | |
| while total_infected < WORLD_POPULATION | |
| day += 1 | |
| recovering.push(incubating.shift) unless incubating.size < INCUBATION_DAYS | |
| recovering.shift if recovering.size > RECOVERY_DAYS | |
| incubating.push(recovering.sum * (R / RECOVERY_DAYS.to_f)) | |
| total_infected += incubating.last | |
| printf("Day: %i, New cases: %s, Total infected: %s\n", | |
| day, | |
| incubating.last.to_s(:rounded, precision: 2, separator: '.', delimiter: ','), | |
| total_infected.to_s(:rounded, precision: 2, separator: '.', delimiter: ',')) | |
| end |
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When will everyone on the planet have had Covid by?
Weirdly, this is a statistic that I haven't heard talked much about: when should Covid saturate the human population?
Obviously a real world epidemiological model would be a lot more complicated, but I wanted to start with the basic numbers that we hear all the time:
I computed the r-value since the beginning of the pandemic. It's around 1.135. Everyone should have had Covid by:
This model doesn't count for reinfections. It also takes the current counted number of Covid infections, which is almost certainly severely under-reported. It's also extremely simplistic, but makes it possible to play around with the implications of different values.