Simulación CONMEBOL 2021

conmebol.py

import numpy as np
from operator import itemgetter

LOCAL = 0.5; EMPATE = 0.3; VISITA = 0.2

pos = {'BRA': 33, 'ARG':25, 'ECU':20, 'CHI':16, 'COL':16, 
       'URU': 16, 'PER':14, 'PAR': 12, 'BOL':12 , 'VEN':7          }
rem = [('URU','ARG'),('ARG','BRA'),                  ### CHECK ORDER OF ARG'BRA
           ('BOL','URU'),('VEN','PER'),('COL','PAR'),('ARG','BRA'),('CHI','ECU'),
           ('CHI','ARG'),('COL','PER'),('ECU','BRA'),('PAR','URU'),('VEN','BOL'),
           ('ARG','COL'),('BOL','CHI'),('BRA','PAR'),('PER','ECU'),('URU','VEN'),
           ('ARG','VEN'),('BRA','CHI'),('COL','BOL'),('PAR','ECU'),('URU','PER'),
           ('BOL','BRA'),('CHI','URU'),('ECU','ARG'),('PER','PAR'),('VEN','COL')]
    
class Simula:
    
    def __init__(self):
        self.pos = pos
        
    def run(self, nRuns):
        out = 0
        for ix in range(nRuns):
            pos = self.pos.copy()
            for match in rem:
                toss = np.random.rand()
                rez = (3,0) if toss > LOCAL else (0,3) if toss<VISITA else (1,1)
                pos[match[0]] += rez[0]; pos[match[1]] += rez[1]
        # ordenar y clasificar
            opos = sorted([(k,v) for k,v in pos.items()], key=itemgetter(1))
            #print(opos)
            rk = [k[0] for k in opos[:3]]
            out = out + 1 if 'CHI' in rk else out
        print(out/nRuns)