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March 20, 2023 01:14
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@chrisacheson
Re: your enumerations of possible outcomes to orphaning USAF:
The Low-cost failure and Costly failure options are not possible long term... unless Bitcoin the invention has some problem not identified by you or anyone else yet. They can only be short term problems in marketing/price. Because we engineers and technical people who understand Bitcoin and why its valuable will maintain good policy... and we will also maintain the coin's price floor. Confidence will eventually be restored and more induction investors and herd investors will come back to our coin as they see how efficiently it moves money.
"Optsegwit and nonsegwit miners hold out indefinitely. Bitcoin remains split into two currencies, both of them a sad mockery of what once was. Crypto-currencies are deemed non-viable by the general public for decades afterwards. CATASTROPHIC FAILURE"
If Bitcoin technology is better than say monopoly enforced fiat money... and works in the long term, then this split is only a problem in the short. Long term Bitcoin technology will become a success in creating competing money choices. Its not true that the core branch would be a "sad mockery", instead it is an excellent technology full of great features and economic policy. The duration that the general public who doesn't use bitcoin for technical analysis reasons is only a short term problem that will be quickly resolved by intelligent thinking for self entrepreneurs who maintain Bitcoin's price floor.
I would agree that the short term effects of orphaning could likely be significantly worse than other proposals to UASF by hardcoded date on (or after) Nov 15. But I'd disagree that it will matter much in the long term... say 2-5 years out we'll have market confidence again. After the MtGox failure, it only took about 2 years for the market to realize it found the price floor and begin to build in price again.