author: @sleepyfox
title: The rise of foxy thinking
date: 4-Jan-2013
Now that we've survived the Mayan Apocalypse I predict that 2013 will see the rise of the generalist over the specialist.
This article last year from Harvard Business Review by Vikram Mansharamani, lecturer at Yale and author of 'Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst' references Isaiah Berlin's 1953 essay "The Fox and the Hedgehog" which contrasts hedgehogs that "relate everything to a single, central vision" i.e. specialists, with foxes who "pursue many ends connected...if at all, only in some de-facto way" i.e. generalists. Berlin's essay is itself based upon the Greek poet Archilochus who wrote that "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing."
The article talks of Professor Phillip Tetlock's 20+ year study of 284 professional forecasters. He asked them to predict the probability of various occurrences both within and outside of their areas of expertise. Analysis of the 80,000+ forecasts found that experts are less accurate predictors than non-experts in their area of expertise. Tetlock's conclusion: when seeking accuracy of predictions, it is better to turn to those like "Berlin's prototypical fox, those who know many little things, draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and contradictions."
The time has come to acknowledge expertise as over-valued. There is no question that expertise and hedgehog logic are appropriate in certain domains e.g. hard sciences, but they certainly appear less fitting for domains plagued with uncertainty, ambiguity, and poorly-defined dynamics e.g. social sciences and business - the very circumstances that have given rise to Agile and Lean Startup. This kind of flexibility is what has led to the concept of generalising-specialists, the T-shaped skills profile and the concept of 'everybody codes, everybody tests, everybody deploys'.
The time has come for leaders to embrace the power of foxy thinking (TED talk).