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@stephancom stephancom/antivaxxer.md
Last active May 14, 2019

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notes on vaccine video

first video https://youtu.be/Q6u8yJpV3qg

  1. 0:00 You actually expect me to take seriously a video by "Mango & Space Panther" over the Center for Disease Control, the Food and Drug Agency, and the American Medical Association. I have an open mind, but I think I may need a bigger speculum.

  2. 2:10 Don't give me some asshole's hippie conspiracy theory twitch video, give me the data, I can do math. The one you want is here: https://www.who.int/vaccine_safety/initiative/tools/MMR_vaccine_rates_information_sheet.pdf?ua=1 . I'm gonna read that and do my own math BEFORE I watch the rest of the video

... and of course I'll be ignoring the mild adverse events as the video says it will do, particularly since I expect in many of those cases the event might have been caused by something else. I'll also note that, personally, I would much prefer my child to have an "adverse event" happen in the doctors office or shortly after immunization is given and care (such as epinephrine for an allergic reaction) is immediately available and I am able to devote my attention to it, as opposed to having them come down with high fever randomly a couple of weeks after being exposed to someone infected, say, while we're on vacation at Disneyland, or when I'm in the middle of a work crisis. Much better to have something happen when you're ready for it.

measles:

  • anaphylaxis: 3.5/10M doses. But, like, that happens right away, and it's scary for five minutes and the kid gets a shot and gets better, right? Kinda does not count, compared to catching a deadly disease.

  • seizures: whoa, that sounds scary. 1:3000, maybe as low as 1:1000? Seems to be related to a family history of epilepsy. OK, what exactly is a febrile seizure? Wikipedia: "A febrile seizure, also known as a fever fit or febrile convulsion, is a seizure associated with a high body temperature but without any serious underlying health issue.[1] They most commonly occur in children between the ages of 6 months and 5 years.[1] Most seizures are less than five minutes in duration and the child is completely back to normal within an hour of the event." Whoa, scary as fuck, but not a super big deal, except: "A febrile status epilepticus is a febrile seizure that lasts for longer than 30 minutes. It can occur in up to 5% of febrile seizure cases" There's no indication that these seizures are more or less prevalent, but let's assume those numbers apply, so you've got a 1:60,000 chance of a maybe for real serious seizure. tl;dr scary, but I'd rather have a ten minute freakout where my kid pisses his pants than dead, especially if I know it might be coming 6-11 days after their shots.

  • Thrombocytopenia: 1:30,000-40,000, "The clinical course of these cases is usually transient and benign" and here's the paper that says that: https://journals.lww.com/pidj/Fulltext/1996/01000/THROMBOCYTOPENIA_AFTER_IMMUNIZATION_WITH_MEASLES.20.aspx "spontaneous hemorrhage and serious complications were unlikely to occur as the result of postimmunization" "Fifty-six reports coded thrombocytopenia or thrombocytopenic purpura were retrieved from 8581 reports for measles-containing vaccines... Forty-one reports indicated that the vaccinee required hospitalization. VAERS reports indicated that 17 individuals were given intravenous immunoglobulin and/or steroids for treatment of TP; one 12-year-old male had a splenectomy. Two serious complications were reported..." "There were 2 fatalities. A 17-year-old male with a history of recurrent episodes of TP secondary to antiphospholipid syndrome died of sepsis 4 days after immunization and a 4-year-old male child died 7 days after immunization after the acute onset of Escherichia coli 0157:H7 infection complicated by pseudomembranous colitis. It cannot be ascertained from the data reported whether immunization contributed to TP in these cases or whether TP was solely associated with the underlying disease" "Thrombocytopenia may follow infection caused by wild-type measles, mumps or rubella viruses and one prospective study documented occurrence after measles immunization with the Schwarz strain of attenuated vaccine virus" "Untreated, postimmunization TP after immunization with Schwarz vaccine virus usually resolves in 3 to 6 weeks" What is this thrombocytopenia anyway? hmmm.... ok....
    "Thrombocytopenia is a deficiency of platelets (thrombocytes), which increases the risk of bleeding" https://www.merckmanuals.com/home/blood-disorders/platelet-disorders/overview-of-thrombocytopenia Oh, I see, it's some weird bleeding and bruising.

So I'm gonna do a little math here and some assumptions, let's assume that the 8581 reports were reports of SOMETHING happening after a vaccination, the 56 reports correspond to the 1 of the 1:40k, let's call that 35k, so I'm assuming this then relates to around... ~2 million vaccinations. 2 fatalities.

So, measles summary, I'm coming up with out of a million doses of measles vaccine, roughly 0.3 case of a scary but quickly treatable allergic reaction, a couple dozen cases of a fairly serious looking seizure that probably gets better, a half-dozen cases of strange bleeding, one really serious reaction, and one death.

stuff not fully connected: Encephalopathy/encephalitis: 1 per million doses, 10 year follow up did not find any increased risk of problems. Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis: REDUCES risk, if anything Guillain–Barré Syndrome, Inflammatory bowel disease and autism: bullshit, bullshit, and triple bullshit with a dogshit chaser.

CONCLUSION: 1:1,000,000 death, <2:1,000,000 something else bad.

mumps:

Aseptic Meningitis well, that's scary, it's the only severe adverse effect. Depends on the strain of vaccination. Jeryl Lynn strain has zero chance of it, or so low they can't find a correlation, and that appears to be the common straight in the USA, in Merck's MMR vaccine. The other strains, Leningrad-3, Leningrad-Zagreb and Urabe so appear to cause this side effect, as much as 1:1000 doses, but it appears the Leningrad strains aren't used in the USA, and the Urabe strain is out of style everywhere.

CONCLUSION: 0.

Rubella:

Arthralgia, arthritis and arthropathy: adults may get temporary join pain, as much as 1/4 of the time. But that goes away in at most three weeks. Chronic arthritis: "One randomised placebo-controlled, double-blind study of rubella vaccination in sero-negative women demonstrated that the frequency of chronic (recurrent) arthralgia or arthritis was marginally increased (1.58 [1.01-2.45], p = 0.042) (Tingle et al., 1997)". (What? They must be lying! there are no placebo-controlled studies!) Anyway, this only seems to affect adults, there is some effect in children, again, "transient arthralgia" = some joint pain, but as for permanent, chronic pain "the evidence is inadequate to accept or reject a causal relationship between MMR vaccine and chronic arthropathy" in either children or adults

CONCLUSION: meh. 0. probably. Nothing deadly.

Combined MMR: "The type and rate of serious adverse events do not differ significantly for the MMR or MR combinations compared with the individual antigens"

Combined MMRV: More fevers, might be a difference in chance of seizures.

OK, let's continue the video from where we left off at 2:11:

2:53, ok, leave Garadasil out of it, that one I said, I think it's a little iffy. But you don't give that to kids.

3:25 - the guy questions the fact that there are adverse events with the placebo. fucking idiot. Quote:

"What's very interesting is that some of these studies you'll see the sample and the control are both very, very high, they're saying that a placebo caused 11,595 severe adverse effects per 100,000, that's pretty strange, huh, if it's just a placebo, a sugar pill or saline solution"

OK, stopping again, this guy has lost any credibility he might have had. You fucking idiot, that's the point of a placebo. They're not saying the placebo CAUSED those adverse events, just that they REPORTED the adverse events.

So if you give 100,000 people saline, and 100,000 people the vaccine, and 990 people in the saline group get a fever, and 110 people in the vaccine group get a fever, then there is pretty much no correlation between the vaccine and the fever. DUH, YOU FUCKING IDIOT. He continues to push his head further up his ass:

"We go further down, we see absurd things like this: 29,372 for the vaccine versus 30,069 for the control, alright they're saying see, it's safe, it only causes 30% severe adverse harm or medically significant conditions in this particular case, but the control had 30,000 so it's perfectly safe. What sort of placebo, what sort of control would cause that many adverse events? That can't be a regular placebo, to any rational thinking person."

No, you fucking idiot, they are saying it causes no real difference from not giving the drug. Not sure what the details of this are, because I'm not digging into the Gardasil HPV vaccine, that's not the point of this conversation. But, the guy is bad at math.

OK, you know, I will look closer. Here's the file: https://www.who.int/vaccine_safety/initiative/tools/HPV_vaccine_rates_information_sheet_1217.pdf?ua=1

And you know what that is saying "In up to nine years after giving people this shot, about 30% of them got sick with SOMETHING in nine years, whether they got the shot or not."

There's nothing wrong with the goddamn placebo, you fucking baboon, it's just that 30% of people get sick once in nine fucking years. FEWER of them got sick with the vaccine, but not really enough to be statistically meaningful.

Rotovirus:

He's saying people got "maimed by the placebo" - this guy does not understand what a placebo is.

here's his google doc from 5:00 : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwnJU-UjKRIOQ-M5hqJQSO2XPS0gzmPoYiTSdv86hCo/edit?usp=sharing

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