Do a Fearon and Laitin (2003) type civil conflict analysis in {peacesciencer}

fearon-laitin-kind-of-analysis-in-peacesciencer.R

create_stateyears(system = 'gw') %>%
  filter(year %in% c(1946:2019)) %>%
  add_ucdp_acd(type=c("intrastate"), only_wars = TRUE) %>%
  add_peace_years() %>%
  add_democracy() %>%
  add_creg_fractionalization() %>%
  add_sdp_gdp() %>%
  add_rugged_terrain() -> Data

Data %>%
  arrange(gwcode, year) %>%
  group_by(gwcode) %>%
  mutate(l1_xm_qudsest = lag(xm_qudsest, 1),
         l1_wbgdppc2011est = lag(wbgdppc2011est, 1),
         l1_wbpopest = lag(wbpopest, 1),
         l1_ucdpongoing = lag(ucdpongoing, 1)) -> Data

summary(M1 <- glm(ucdponset ~ l1_wbgdppc2011est + l1_wbpopest  +
                    l1_xm_qudsest + I(l1_xm_qudsest^2) + 
                    newlmtnest + ethfrac + relfrac + 
            splines::bs(ucdpspell, 4), data=subset(Data, l1_ucdpongoing == 0), 
            family = binomial(link="logit")))

summary(M2 <- glm(ucdponset ~ l1_wbgdppc2011est + l1_wbpopest  +
                    l1_xm_qudsest + I(l1_xm_qudsest^2) + 
                    rugged + ethfrac + relfrac + 
                    splines::bs(ucdpspell, 4), data=subset(Data, l1_ucdpongoing == 0), 
                  family = binomial(link="logit")))

library(modelsummary)
modelsummary(list(M1, M2))