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August 1, 2010 21:30
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casino strategy
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""" | |
This script simulates a common casino strategy when playing roulette: | |
bet on odd/even, and stick to your choice. bet $20 at start, if you lose, | |
double the bet; if you win, start with the $20 bet again. | |
This simulation suggests that if you follow this strategy for a few rounds (say 50), | |
more than 90% of the people will make money, with only a slight chance of bankrupt | |
$ python casino_strategy.py | |
Simulating 50 rolls per trial and generate 10000 trials | |
mean: 10006, median: 10480 | |
93% of the samples earned money | |
3% of the samples got bankrupt | |
However if you adopt this strategy long enough, eventually you'll lose money. | |
See "gambler's ruin" <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_ruin> | |
""" | |
from random import choice | |
import sys | |
w = lambda x: sys.stderr.write("%s\n" % x) | |
class Gambler: | |
__slots__ = ("money",) | |
def __init__(self, money=10000): | |
self.money = money | |
reset = __init__ | |
def roll(self, times=50, verbose=False): | |
bet = 20 | |
for i in range(times): | |
self.money -= bet | |
won = choice((True, False)) # binary choice | |
# the gambling strategy | |
if won: | |
self.money += bet * 2 | |
next_bet = 20 | |
else: | |
next_bet = bet * 2 | |
if verbose: | |
w("bet: %d, %s, balance: %d" % \ | |
(bet, "won" if won else "lost", self.money)) | |
# can't bet more than you have | |
if next_bet > self.money: | |
next_bet = self.money | |
bet = next_bet | |
return self.money | |
if __name__ == "__main__": | |
ITERATIONS = 10000 | |
ROLLS = 50 | |
finals = [] | |
g = Gambler() | |
for i in range(ITERATIONS): | |
g.reset() | |
finals.append(g.roll(times=ROLLS)) | |
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt | |
import numpy as np | |
finals = np.array(finals, dtype=int) | |
w("Simulating %d rolls per trial and generate %d trials" % (ROLLS, ITERATIONS)) | |
w("mean: %d, median: %d" % (np.mean(finals), np.median(finals))) | |
w("%d%% of the samples earned money" % (len(finals[finals > 10000]) * 100 / ITERATIONS)) | |
w("%d%% of the samples got bankrupt" % (len(finals[finals == 0]) * 100 / ITERATIONS)) | |
plt.hist(finals, bins=100) | |
plt.savefig(__file__.replace(".py", ".png")) |
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