WorldCup Monte Carlo Simulations in Apps Script (For a post)

WorldCup Monte Carlo Simulations.js

/***************************************************************************
 * This is a Monte Carlo simulation 
 * to see who will win the 2014 World Cup
 * Data ideas: http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/
 * See: http://goo.gl/NV2OLc for a diagram of the odds.
 * Author: Ido Green | @greenido | plus.google.com/+greenido
 * Date: 4th July 2014
 * *************************************************************************/

// Decide base on our odds who will win each match
function stateMachine(curLine) {
  var path = "";
  var curState = "0:0";
  while (curState != "BRA" && 
          curState != "GER") {
    path += curState + " | ";
    var rand = Math.random();
    switch (curState) {
      case "0:0":
        // We always start at this state
        if (rand < 0.3) {
          curState = "1:0";
        } else if (rand >= 0.3 && rand < 0.6) {
          curState = "1:1";
        } else if (rand >= 0.6 && rand < 0.8) {
          curState = "0:1";
        } else if (rand >= 0.8) {
          curState = "kicks";
        }
        break;
        
      case "1:0":
        if (rand < 0.3) {
          curState = "kicks";
        } else if (rand >= 0.3 && rand < 0.8) {
          curState = "2:0";
        } else if (rand >= 0.8 && rand < 0.9) {
          curState = "1:1";
        } else if (rand >= 0.9) {
          curState = "BRA";
        }
        break;
        
      case "1:1":
        if (rand < 0.4) {
          curState = "2:1";
        } else if (rand >= 0.4 && rand < 0.7) {
          curState = "1:2";
        } else if (rand >= 0.7) {
          curState = "kicks";
        }
        break;
        
      case "0:1":
        if (rand < 0.3) {
          curState = "2:1";
        } else if (rand >= 0.3 && rand < 0.5) {
          curState = "1:2";
        } else if (rand >= 0.5 && rand < 0.7) {
          curState = "kicks";
        } else if (rand >= 0.7) {
          curState = "GER";
        }
        break;
        
      case "2:0":
      case "2:1":
          curState = "BRA";
        break;
      case "1:2":
      case "0:2":
        curState = "GER";
        break;
      case "kicks":
        if (rand < 0.4) {
          curState = "BRA";
        } else {
          curState = "GER";
        }
        break;
    } // switch
  } // while
  
  var curSheet = SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Games1");
  var barWon = 1;
  var gerWon = 0;
  if (curState != "BRA") {
    gerWon = 1;
    barWon = 0;
  }
  curSheet.getRange("a"+curLine).setValue(barWon);
  curSheet.getRange("b"+curLine).setValue(gerWon);
  curSheet.getRange("c"+curLine).setValue(path);
  return curState;
}

// Run on the senarios
function runStateSenarios() {
    var start = new Date().getTime();
  var curSheet =   SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Games1");  
  var numOfSenarios = curSheet.getRange("e1").getValue();
  try {
    var brazilWon  = 0;
    var germanyWon = 0;
    for (var i=0; i < numOfSenarios; i++) {
      var result = stateMachine(i+11);
      if (result === "BRA") {
        brazilWon++;
      }
      else {
        germanyWon++;
      }
      SpreadsheetApp.flush();
    }  
    var percForBra = Math.round((brazilWon / (brazilWon+germanyWon))*100);
    curSheet.getRange("a2").setValue(brazilWon);
    curSheet.getRange("b2").setValue(germanyWon);
    curSheet.getRange("a3").setValue(percForBra);
    curSheet.getRange("b3").setValue(100 - percForBra);
  } catch(err) {
    Logger.log("Error: runSenarios(): " + err);
  }
  var end = new Date().getTime();
  var execTime = (end - start) / 1000;
  var outStr = "<ul><li>Brazil won: " + brazilWon + " <li>Gremany won: " + germanyWon +
    " <li>Brazil get the cup in %" + percForBra + " of times. <li><small>It took: " +
      execTime + "sec</ul>";
  var htmlApp = HtmlService
    .createHtmlOutput(outStr)
    .setTitle('Results')
    .setWidth(350)
    .setHeight(200);
  SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().show(htmlApp);
  Logger.log(outStr);    
}

//
function onOpen() {
  var ss = SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet();
  var menuEntries = [];
  menuEntries.push({name: "Run Simulations", functionName: "runStateSenarios"});
  ss.addMenu("WorldCup Simulator", menuEntries);
}