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The Chicago Bears and Occam's Razor

Before we start asking for heads - or worse - start invoking the notion of fire, passion and leadership let's use Occam's razor as a potential guiding principal here. For the uninitiated, Occam's razor says that when examining a problem, the simpler theory is often times the better one.

Nothing drives me crazier than when players say, "We didn't make plays." It doesn't matter if that's smoking Jay Cutler or the unintelligible mumble of Brian Urlacher. And while the statement drives me crazy, I had a moment of clarity as I saw Gronk muscle the living crap out of all the Bears players - we don't have good players. What's wrong with the Bears? Is it Trestman or Tucker? Is it Cutler or Jeffrey? Is it Emery and the McCaskey's? It's none of them. Per Occam's Razor: we have crummy players.

The more instructive thing for Bears fans to do is to ask "why do we have crummy players?!" And the easiest way to do that is to look at the draft and free agency. So ... let's do the awful thing and just look at some past drafts. This is where organizations have the ability to get players. This is where teams build their futures. This is where you make hay.

For the people wanting to fire Phil Emery, we can judge him on three drafts.

2012, 2013 and 2014.

2012 / http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2012_draft.htm

  • 01 (19) Shea McClellin
  • 02 (45) Alshon Jeffrey
  • 03 (79) Brandon Hardin
  • 04 (111) Evan Rodriguez
  • 06 (184) Isiah Frey
  • 07 (220) Greg McCoy

We have a hit in Alshon Jeffrey and a miss in every other category. Of the six players drafted, only three are playing in the NFL. We know Jeffrey's potential. We know that Shea McClellin is clearly not the player that was drafted. And we know that Isiah Frey was good enough to be cut and is now with Tampa. Brandon Hardin is out of football. Evan Rodriguez is out of football. I don't even know who Greg McCoy is. In essense you go 1 for 6 in this draft. Terrible.

2013 / http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2013_draft.htm

  • 01 (20) Kyle Long
  • 02 (50) Jonathan Bostic
  • 04 (117) Khaseem Greene
  • 05 (163) Jordan Mills
  • 06 (188) Cornelius Washington
  • 07 (236) Marquess Wilson

Here, you have something to work with. Kyle Long makes a Pro Bowl. Jonathan Bostic, Jordan Mills can contribute. Khaseem Greene can at least play special teams. Who knows what Marquess Wilson can do, but the fact that we're even talking about a 7th round pick means something. Cornelius Washington is practice squad fodder. So here you end up going - let's give Phil some mild credit - 5 for 6 in this draft. OK, not bad.

2014 / http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2014_draft.htm

  • 01 (14) Kyle Fuller
  • 02 (51) Ego Ferguson
  • 03 (82) Will Sutton
  • 04 (117) Ka'deem Carey
  • 04 (131) Brock Vereen
  • 06 (183) David Fales
  • 06 (191) Pat O'Donnell
  • 07 (246) Charles Leno

It's clearly too early to judge this draft and we probably won't be able to get a really good look at it until next year. That said, injuries aside, it appears like Kyle Fuller is a hit. Ferguson and Sutton contrinbute. Carey and Vereen contribute. O'Donnell can maybe punt ... his stats are fairly horrid so far. And Charles Leno is still on the team. So let's balance it out and not give Phil as much credit. Say 4 for 8 in this draft. Average.

While Phil started shaky, it's possible he might be turning the draft around. I won't even go into the Angelo/Lovie years - yeah, I think we forget that Lovie had a lot of influence when it came to drafting people (see: Major Wright) but those years are abyssmal. See, the problem is that the Bears are just good enough to keep fans interested and just bad enough that we never land in the top 10 pick territory. I'm not ready to fire anyone, but I am ready to simply come to grips with the hollow shell that Emery inherited from Angelo. Is he trying? Yes. Is he succeeding? I don't know.

Who should we fire? Maybe the scouts from the 2012 and prior drafts. When I interpret "we aren't making plays," I guess I'm just now more at peace with the fact that we don't have good enough players. Maybe we'll get them someday, but for now - we just don't have them. Whose fault is that? The easiest answer is still Lovie and Angelo, but soon the finger can be pointed at Phil.

It's going to be a long season. My hope is that they struggle so we can see what we have in the younger players, and so that we can simply get more picks and hope that in 2-3 years this thing will be pointing in the other direction. Until then, maybe victory chicken and it's absence will be a good thing.

Terry from Evanston

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