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@toddwschneider toddwschneider/nls_weather_model.R Secret
Last active Jan 10, 2016

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library(minpack.lm)
scurve = function(x, center, width) {
1 / (1 + exp(-(x - center) / width))
}
nls_model = nlsLM(
trips ~ exp(
const +
b_weekday * weekday_non_holiday +
b_expansion * (date > "2015-08-25")
) +
b_weather * scurve(
max_temperature + b_precip * precipitation + b_snow * snow_depth,
weather_scurve_center,
weather_scurve_width
),
data = filter(weather_data, date >= "2013-08-01"),
start = list(const = 9,
b_weekday = 1,
b_expansion = 1,
b_weather = 25000,
b_precip = -20, b_snow = -2,
weather_scurve_center = 40,
weather_scurve_width = 20))
summary(nls_model)
# Parameters:
# Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
# const 7.893 1.816e-01 43.457 < 2e-16
# b_weekday 1.058 1.205e-01 8.786 < 2e-16
# b_expansion 0.982 5.688e-02 17.268 < 2e-16
# b_weather 29613 8.914e+02 33.219 < 2e-16
# b_precip -23.55 1.191e+00 -19.768 < 2e-16
# b_snow -1.37 2.948e-01 -4.633 4.17e-06
# weather_scurve_center 52.95 7.599e-01 69.678 < 2e-16
# weather_scurve_width 11.34 7.117e-01 15.935 < 2e-16
# ---
# Residual standard error: 4158 on 844 degrees of freedom
# Number of iterations to convergence: 11
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