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Pluto notebooks
Raw
inflation_analysis.jl
### A Pluto.jl notebook ###
# v0.19.22
using Markdown
using InteractiveUtils
# This Pluto notebook uses @bind for interactivity. When running this notebook outside of Pluto, the following 'mock version' of @bind gives bound variables a default value (instead of an error).
macro bind(def, element)
quote
local iv = try Base.loaded_modules[Base.PkgId(Base.UUID("6e696c72-6542-2067-7265-42206c756150"), "AbstractPlutoDingetjes")].Bonds.initial_value catch; b -> missing; end
local el = $(esc(element))
global $(esc(def)) = Core.applicable(Base.get, el) ? Base.get(el) : iv(el)
el
end
end
# ╔═╡ 67cc22ec-a7bc-11ed-3f75-99826aa29c6b
begin
using DataFrames
using Plots
using OrderedCollections
using LinearAlgebra
using PlutoUI
plotly()
end
# ╔═╡ 97b4c265-051e-4008-bd9f-04439e054c6f
html"<button onclick='present()'>▶</button>"
# ╔═╡ 28eee671-0f35-490e-8ecc-044b2420c703
md"# Data"
# ╔═╡ 509fbbfa-4a50-42fa-897c-8163a5076888
md"""
#### CII data
Obtained from [https://incometaxindia.gov.in/charts%20%20tables/cost-inflation-index.htm](https://incometaxindia.gov.in/charts%20%20tables/cost-inflation-index.htm)
"""
# ╔═╡ fdd4ab4b-ca56-4f5a-be2c-289cf5ab4d94
begin
cii_raw_data = OrderedDict(
"2001-02" => 100,
"2002-03" => 105,
"2003-04" => 109,
"2004-05" => 113,
"2005-06" => 117,
"2006-07" => 122,
"2007-08" => 129,
"2008-09" => 137,
"2009-10" => 148,
"2010-11" => 167,
"2011-12" => 184,
"2012-13" => 200,
"2013-14" => 220,
"2014-15" => 240,
"2015-16" => 254,
"2016-17" => 264,
"2017-18" => 272,
"2018-19" => 280,
"2019-20" => 289,
"2020-21" => 301,
"2021-22" => 317,
"2022-23" => 331
)
#
cii_data = OrderedDict(
zip(
collect(2001:2022),
values(cii_raw_data)
)
)
end
# ╔═╡ 822f95d4-acbe-4f15-8d0b-e6ca085fa908
begin
cii = collect(values(cii_data))
ii = cii ./ cii'
yoy_inflation = (cii[2:end] ./ cii[1:end-1] .- 1) * 100
end
# ╔═╡ 82c20725-0681-4d71-b198-d6c56dd79a70
md"""
#### Inflation data - World Bank
Source: [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?end=2021&locations=IN&start=2000&view=chart](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?end=2021&locations=IN&start=2000&view=chart)
"""
# ╔═╡ dfcfa0fb-9bc4-4f6b-874e-e9ace758c819
begin
wb_data = OrderedDict(
zip(
collect(2002:2021),
[4.29715203929562, 3.80585899528852, 3.7672517347751, 4.24634362031927, 5.79652337561635, 6.37288135593229, 8.34926704907581, 10.8823529411765, 11.9893899204243, 8.9117933648337, 9.47899691419793, 10.0178784746103, 6.665656718679, 4.90697344127254, 4.94821634062142, 3.32817337461301, 3.93882646691634, 3.72950573539126, 6.62343677628532, 5.13140747176369 ]
)
)
# Compute cost inflation index equivalent from WB data
wb_cii = [1.0, (values(wb_data) ./ 100 .+ 1.0 |> cumprod)...] .* 100
wb_ii = wb_cii ./ wb_cii'
wb_inflation = values(wb_data) |> collect
end
# ╔═╡ 8ef1e290-12e3-411a-bbc8-b185fa6b8dff
md"""
#### Macrotrends CPI data
Source: [https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/inflation-rate-cpi](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/inflation-rate-cpi)
"""
# ╔═╡ d7ead138-83ca-4d02-823e-05df530c41a1
begin
mt_data = OrderedDict(
2021 => 5.13, 2020 => 6.62, 2019 => 3.73, 2018 => 3.94, 2017 => 3.33,
2016 => 4.95, 2015 => 4.91, 2014 => 6.67, 2013 => 10.02, 2012 => 9.48,
2011 => 8.91, 2010 => 11.99, 2009 => 10.88, 2008 => 8.35, 2007 => 6.37,
2006 => 5.80, 2005 => 4.25, 2004 => 3.77, 2003 => 3.81, 2002 => 4.30,
2001 => 3.78
) |> d -> OrderedDict(zip(
d |> keys |> collect |> reverse,
d |> values |> collect |> reverse)
)
# Compute cost inflation index equivalent from WB data
mt_cii = [1.0, (values(mt_data) ./ 100 .+ 1.0 |> cumprod)...] .* 100
mt_ii = mt_cii ./ mt_cii'
mt_inflation = values(mt_data) |> collect
end
# ╔═╡ 7cf5576b-aa6c-41b6-b448-aebe76903bc1
md"""
# Comparion
"""
# ╔═╡ dccbec3a-90cf-4315-8225-e7bcb9484c55
begin
plot(size=(680, 360))
plot!(
yoy_inflation, seriestype=:bar,
label="CII",
alpha=0.5
)
plot!(
values(wb_data) |> collect,
seriestype=:scatter,
markershape=:diamond,
label="WB"
)
plot!(
values(mt_data) |> collect,
seriestype=:scatter,
markershape=:hexagon,
label="MT CPI"
)
title!("YoY Inflation")
plot!(
xticks=(
1:length(cii_data) - 1,
collect(keys(cii_data))[2:end]
),
xrotation=45
)
end
# ╔═╡ 5f064bc8-1fd8-4034-85f9-7ed776350140
md"""
# Cost effect
This is calculated by using the CII indexation method
"""
# ╔═╡ 2b80dd12-6f71-4823-b5a5-017bbd477873
begin
plot(size=(680, 360))
plot!(ii[:, 1] * 100, label="CII", markershape=:circle)
plot!(wb_ii[:, 1] * 100, label="WB", markershape=:diamond)
plot!(mt_ii[:, 1] * 100, label="MT CPI", markershape=:hexagon)
plot!(
xticks=(1:length(cii_data), keys(cii_data)|>collect),
xrotation=45,
legend=:bottomright
)
title!("Compunded Inflation")
end
# ╔═╡ 3e254417-51d3-4ec1-9877-bba652c39c14
md"""
## Centered Cost Inflation Index
This computes the indexation based on selected year.
Source: $(@bind source Select(["CII", "WB", "MT CPI"]))
Year: $(@bind sel_year Slider(keys(cii_data) |> collect ))
"""
# ╔═╡ 5e565e02-7c45-4b9f-b41e-a2a099b1d599
begin
# Select data source according to 'source'
if source == "CII"
x_cii_data = cii_data
x_ii = ii
elseif source == "WB"
x_cii_data = wb_data
x_ii = wb_ii
elseif source == "MT CPI"
x_cii_data = mt_data
x_ii = mt_ii
end
plot(size=(680, 360), framestyle=:grid)
plot!(x_ii[:, sel_year - 2000] * 100, label=nothing, markershape=:circle)
plot!(
xticks=(1:length(cii_data), keys(cii_data) |> collect),
xrotation=45
)
title!("Source: $(source) Index year: $(sel_year)")
hline!([100], color=:black, label=nothing)
vline!([sel_year - 2000], color=:black, label=nothing)
end
# ╔═╡ 9362e745-df1e-48b7-a3c4-22eac43ca1ba
md"""
# How Rs. 1 lost its value?
"""
# ╔═╡ 8bf34821-d671-45ce-ac59-5cf8d74670ab
begin
plot(size=(680, 360), title="Value of Rs. 1")
plot!(ii[1, :], label="CII", markershape=:circle)
plot!(wb_ii[1, :], label="WB", markershape=:diamond)
plot!(mt_ii[1, :], label="MT CPI", markershape=:hexagon)
plot!(
xticks=(1:length(cii_data), keys(cii_data) |> collect),
xrotation=45,
legend=:topright
)
end
# ╔═╡ 39529645-9294-485c-aa36-450ff43b8075
md"""
## Centered Value Loss for Rs. 1
This computes the indexation based on selected year.
Source: $(@bind r1_source Select(["CII", "WB", "MT CPI"]))
Year: $(@bind r1_sel_year Slider(keys(cii_data) |> collect ))
"""
# ╔═╡ 48484246-c267-47c7-a404-6a2a1c8c31f0
begin
# Select data source according to 'source'
if r1_source == "CII"
r1x_cii_data = cii_data
r1x_ii = ii
elseif r1_source == "WB"
r1x_cii_data = wb_data
r1x_ii = wb_ii
elseif r1_source == "MT CPI"
r1x_cii_data = mt_data
r1x_ii = mt_ii
end
plot(size=(680, 360), framestyle=:grid)
plot!(r1x_ii[r1_sel_year - 2000, :], label=nothing, markershape=:circle)
plot!(
xticks=(1:length(cii_data), keys(cii_data) |> collect),
xrotation=45
)
title!("Source: $(r1_source) Index year: $(r1_sel_year)")
hline!([1], color=:black, label=nothing)
vline!([r1_sel_year - 2000], color=:black, label=nothing)
end
# ╔═╡ 00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001
PLUTO_PROJECT_TOML_CONTENTS = """
[deps]
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OrderedCollections = "bac558e1-5e72-5ebc-8fee-abe8a469f55d"
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PlutoUI = "7f904dfe-b85e-4ff6-b463-dae2292396a8"
[compat]
DataFrames = "~1.4.4"
OrderedCollections = "~1.4.1"
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PlutoUI = "~0.7.49"
"""
# ╔═╡ 00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000002
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deps = ["ChainRulesCore", "IrrationalConstants", "LogExpFunctions", "OpenLibm_jll", "OpenSpecFun_jll"]
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deps = ["Random", "Test"]
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uuid = "4ec0a83e-493e-50e2-b9ac-8f72acf5a8f5"
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[[deps.Wayland_jll]]
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git-tree-sha1 = "ed8d92d9774b077c53e1da50fd81a36af3744c1c"
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[[deps.Wayland_protocols_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg"]
git-tree-sha1 = "4528479aa01ee1b3b4cd0e6faef0e04cf16466da"
uuid = "2381bf8a-dfd0-557d-9999-79630e7b1b91"
version = "1.25.0+0"
[[deps.XML2_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Libiconv_jll", "Pkg", "Zlib_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "93c41695bc1c08c46c5899f4fe06d6ead504bb73"
uuid = "02c8fc9c-b97f-50b9-bbe4-9be30ff0a78a"
version = "2.10.3+0"
[[deps.XSLT_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Libgcrypt_jll", "Libgpg_error_jll", "Libiconv_jll", "Pkg", "XML2_jll", "Zlib_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "91844873c4085240b95e795f692c4cec4d805f8a"
uuid = "aed1982a-8fda-507f-9586-7b0439959a61"
version = "1.1.34+0"
[[deps.Xorg_libX11_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libxcb_jll", "Xorg_xtrans_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "5be649d550f3f4b95308bf0183b82e2582876527"
uuid = "4f6342f7-b3d2-589e-9d20-edeb45f2b2bc"
version = "1.6.9+4"
[[deps.Xorg_libXau_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg"]
git-tree-sha1 = "4e490d5c960c314f33885790ed410ff3a94ce67e"
uuid = "0c0b7dd1-d40b-584c-a123-a41640f87eec"
version = "1.0.9+4"
[[deps.Xorg_libXcursor_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libXfixes_jll", "Xorg_libXrender_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "12e0eb3bc634fa2080c1c37fccf56f7c22989afd"
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version = "1.2.0+4"
[[deps.Xorg_libXdmcp_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg"]
git-tree-sha1 = "4fe47bd2247248125c428978740e18a681372dd4"
uuid = "a3789734-cfe1-5b06-b2d0-1dd0d9d62d05"
version = "1.1.3+4"
[[deps.Xorg_libXext_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libX11_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "b7c0aa8c376b31e4852b360222848637f481f8c3"
uuid = "1082639a-0dae-5f34-9b06-72781eeb8cb3"
version = "1.3.4+4"
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deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libX11_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "0e0dc7431e7a0587559f9294aeec269471c991a4"
uuid = "d091e8ba-531a-589c-9de9-94069b037ed8"
version = "5.0.3+4"
[[deps.Xorg_libXi_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libXext_jll", "Xorg_libXfixes_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "89b52bc2160aadc84d707093930ef0bffa641246"
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version = "1.7.10+4"
[[deps.Xorg_libXinerama_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libXext_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "26be8b1c342929259317d8b9f7b53bf2bb73b123"
uuid = "d1454406-59df-5ea1-beac-c340f2130bc3"
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[[deps.Xorg_libXrandr_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libXext_jll", "Xorg_libXrender_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "34cea83cb726fb58f325887bf0612c6b3fb17631"
uuid = "ec84b674-ba8e-5d96-8ba1-2a689ba10484"
version = "1.5.2+4"
[[deps.Xorg_libXrender_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libX11_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "19560f30fd49f4d4efbe7002a1037f8c43d43b96"
uuid = "ea2f1a96-1ddc-540d-b46f-429655e07cfa"
version = "0.9.10+4"
[[deps.Xorg_libpthread_stubs_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg"]
git-tree-sha1 = "6783737e45d3c59a4a4c4091f5f88cdcf0908cbb"
uuid = "14d82f49-176c-5ed1-bb49-ad3f5cbd8c74"
version = "0.1.0+3"
[[deps.Xorg_libxcb_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "XSLT_jll", "Xorg_libXau_jll", "Xorg_libXdmcp_jll", "Xorg_libpthread_stubs_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "daf17f441228e7a3833846cd048892861cff16d6"
uuid = "c7cfdc94-dc32-55de-ac96-5a1b8d977c5b"
version = "1.13.0+3"
[[deps.Xorg_libxkbfile_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libX11_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "926af861744212db0eb001d9e40b5d16292080b2"
uuid = "cc61e674-0454-545c-8b26-ed2c68acab7a"
version = "1.1.0+4"
[[deps.Xorg_xcb_util_image_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_xcb_util_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "0fab0a40349ba1cba2c1da699243396ff8e94b97"
uuid = "12413925-8142-5f55-bb0e-6d7ca50bb09b"
version = "0.4.0+1"
[[deps.Xorg_xcb_util_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libxcb_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "e7fd7b2881fa2eaa72717420894d3938177862d1"
uuid = "2def613f-5ad1-5310-b15b-b15d46f528f5"
version = "0.4.0+1"
[[deps.Xorg_xcb_util_keysyms_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_xcb_util_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "d1151e2c45a544f32441a567d1690e701ec89b00"
uuid = "975044d2-76e6-5fbe-bf08-97ce7c6574c7"
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[[deps.Xorg_xcb_util_renderutil_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_xcb_util_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "dfd7a8f38d4613b6a575253b3174dd991ca6183e"
uuid = "0d47668e-0667-5a69-a72c-f761630bfb7e"
version = "0.3.9+1"
[[deps.Xorg_xcb_util_wm_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_xcb_util_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "e78d10aab01a4a154142c5006ed44fd9e8e31b67"
uuid = "c22f9ab0-d5fe-5066-847c-f4bb1cd4e361"
version = "0.4.1+1"
[[deps.Xorg_xkbcomp_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_libxkbfile_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "4bcbf660f6c2e714f87e960a171b119d06ee163b"
uuid = "35661453-b289-5fab-8a00-3d9160c6a3a4"
version = "1.4.2+4"
[[deps.Xorg_xkeyboard_config_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Xorg_xkbcomp_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "5c8424f8a67c3f2209646d4425f3d415fee5931d"
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git-tree-sha1 = "79c31e7844f6ecf779705fbc12146eb190b7d845"
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[[deps.Zlib_jll]]
deps = ["Libdl"]
uuid = "83775a58-1f1d-513f-b197-d71354ab007a"
version = "1.2.12+3"
[[deps.Zstd_jll]]
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git-tree-sha1 = "e45044cd873ded54b6a5bac0eb5c971392cf1927"
uuid = "3161d3a3-bdf6-5164-811a-617609db77b4"
version = "1.5.2+0"
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git-tree-sha1 = "868e669ccb12ba16eaf50cb2957ee2ff61261c56"
uuid = "214eeab7-80f7-51ab-84ad-2988db7cef09"
version = "0.29.0+0"
[[deps.libaom_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg"]
git-tree-sha1 = "3a2ea60308f0996d26f1e5354e10c24e9ef905d4"
uuid = "a4ae2306-e953-59d6-aa16-d00cac43593b"
version = "3.4.0+0"
[[deps.libass_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "Bzip2_jll", "FreeType2_jll", "FriBidi_jll", "HarfBuzz_jll", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Zlib_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "5982a94fcba20f02f42ace44b9894ee2b140fe47"
uuid = "0ac62f75-1d6f-5e53-bd7c-93b484bb37c0"
version = "0.15.1+0"
[[deps.libblastrampoline_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "Libdl", "OpenBLAS_jll"]
uuid = "8e850b90-86db-534c-a0d3-1478176c7d93"
version = "5.1.1+0"
[[deps.libfdk_aac_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg"]
git-tree-sha1 = "daacc84a041563f965be61859a36e17c4e4fcd55"
uuid = "f638f0a6-7fb0-5443-88ba-1cc74229b280"
version = "2.0.2+0"
[[deps.libpng_jll]]
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git-tree-sha1 = "94d180a6d2b5e55e447e2d27a29ed04fe79eb30c"
uuid = "b53b4c65-9356-5827-b1ea-8c7a1a84506f"
version = "1.6.38+0"
[[deps.libvorbis_jll]]
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git-tree-sha1 = "b910cb81ef3fe6e78bf6acee440bda86fd6ae00c"
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version = "1.48.0+0"
[[deps.p7zip_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "Libdl"]
uuid = "3f19e933-33d8-53b3-aaab-bd5110c3b7a0"
version = "17.4.0+0"
[[deps.x264_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg"]
git-tree-sha1 = "4fea590b89e6ec504593146bf8b988b2c00922b2"
uuid = "1270edf5-f2f9-52d2-97e9-ab00b5d0237a"
version = "2021.5.5+0"
[[deps.x265_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg"]
git-tree-sha1 = "ee567a171cce03570d77ad3a43e90218e38937a9"
uuid = "dfaa095f-4041-5dcd-9319-2fabd8486b76"
version = "3.5.0+0"
[[deps.xkbcommon_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Wayland_jll", "Wayland_protocols_jll", "Xorg_libxcb_jll", "Xorg_xkeyboard_config_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "9ebfc140cc56e8c2156a15ceac2f0302e327ac0a"
uuid = "d8fb68d0-12a3-5cfd-a85a-d49703b185fd"
version = "1.4.1+0"
"""
# ╔═╡ Cell order:
# ╟─97b4c265-051e-4008-bd9f-04439e054c6f
# ╠═67cc22ec-a7bc-11ed-3f75-99826aa29c6b
# ╟─28eee671-0f35-490e-8ecc-044b2420c703
# ╟─509fbbfa-4a50-42fa-897c-8163a5076888
# ╟─fdd4ab4b-ca56-4f5a-be2c-289cf5ab4d94
# ╟─822f95d4-acbe-4f15-8d0b-e6ca085fa908
# ╟─82c20725-0681-4d71-b198-d6c56dd79a70
# ╟─dfcfa0fb-9bc4-4f6b-874e-e9ace758c819
# ╟─8ef1e290-12e3-411a-bbc8-b185fa6b8dff
# ╟─d7ead138-83ca-4d02-823e-05df530c41a1
# ╟─7cf5576b-aa6c-41b6-b448-aebe76903bc1
# ╟─dccbec3a-90cf-4315-8225-e7bcb9484c55
# ╟─5f064bc8-1fd8-4034-85f9-7ed776350140
# ╟─2b80dd12-6f71-4823-b5a5-017bbd477873
# ╟─3e254417-51d3-4ec1-9877-bba652c39c14
# ╟─5e565e02-7c45-4b9f-b41e-a2a099b1d599
# ╟─9362e745-df1e-48b7-a3c4-22eac43ca1ba
# ╟─8bf34821-d671-45ce-ac59-5cf8d74670ab
# ╟─39529645-9294-485c-aa36-450ff43b8075
# ╟─48484246-c267-47c7-a404-6a2a1c8c31f0
# ╟─00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001
# ╟─00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000002
Raw
Pluto.md

Pluto notebooks

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