vtika23

PENDING APPROVAL: Sentiment Integration + Backtest

Status: ⏸️ AWAITING VALON'S APPROVAL Created: 2026-01-25

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Objective

Wire sentiment data from DuckDB into trading signals, then backtest to measure impact.

vtika23

Cross-Market Prediction Market Arbitrage: Deep Dive

Executive Summary

After extensive research into prediction market arbitrage strategies, the most actionable and proven approach is intra-market symmetric arbitrage on Polymarket's 15-minute crypto markets — not cross-market arbitrage between platforms. Cross-market arb (Polymarket vs Kalshi) faces significant structural barriers that make it impractical for most traders.

Key Findings

1. Most profitable strategy: The "gabagool method" — buying YES and NO asymmetrically on the same market at different times to achieve avg_YES + avg_NO < $1.00
2. Cross-market arb is mostly dead: Fees, latency, and settlement differences eliminate edge

vtika23

IDEAS.md - Project & Ideas Board

Last updated: 2026-01-26 07:11 AM Gist: https://gist.github.com/vtika23/2129d952dca1a40b9705f2fade45ddb6

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🔥 Active / In Progress

Crypto Grid Trading

vtika23

Backfill Ticker Analysis

Generated: 2026-01-24 18:29

Summary

Metric	Value
Unique Tickers	155
Total Mentions	1248

vtika23

Options Strategy Backtest Report - 2024 Momentum Winners

Generated: 2026-01-24 17:42:26

🎯 Executive Summary

Testing 7 options strategies on 2024's biggest momentum winners, using the exact entry points identified by our momentum scanner.

Entry Points (From Scanner)

Symbol	Entry Date	Entry Price	Exit Price (Dec 31)	Stock Return
SMCI	2024-01-09	$34.37	-	-11.3%

vtika23

Hybrid Stock + Options Strategy Backtest Results

Generated: 2025-01-24

🎯 Executive Summary

Testing 4 hybrid strategies that combine stock ownership with LEAP options to balance upside capture and downside protection.

Key Finding: No Perfect Answer - It Depends on the Stock

vtika23

Exit Strategy Analysis: 2024 Winners

Analysis Date: 2026-01-24 17:18

Executive Summary

Testing 5 exit strategies + buy-and-hold baseline on 2024's momentum winners. Each strategy starts with $10,000 at first scanner detection.

🏆 Best Strategy: Buy & Hold — $98,525 total ($+58,525 profit)

vtika23

# Trading Strategy: $5k → $1M Roadmap

## Current Assets

| System | Status | Capital | When |
|--------|--------|---------|------|
| Polymarket Arb | 🟢 Running | $1,000 | Now (24/7) |
| Wheeling (Schwab) | 🟡 Paper | $5,000 | Monday |
| Hyperliquid | ❌ US blocked | - | - |