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Results of Stan1 model
Inference for Stan model: Electricity 55.
4 chains, each with iter=3e+05; warmup=150000; thin=1;
post-warmup draws per chain=150000, total post-warmup draws=6e+05.
mean se_mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
alpha[1] 446.4 1.1 31.7 385.0 427.1 445.6 464.9 509.7 810 1
alpha[2] 486.5 0.3 31.3 425.6 467.5 486.3 504.3 550.5 9341 1
alpha[3] 588.3 0.3 41.3 507.6 562.0 588.2 614.1 671.4 23192 1
alpha_alpha 513.7 0.4 59.9 400.6 477.7 510.0 547.8 644.4 22189 1
alpha_sigma 95.1 1.1 64.5 33.7 57.0 78.8 111.9 255.4 3251 1
beta[1] -2.9 0.0 0.7 -4.3 -3.4 -2.9 -2.5 -0.9 237 1
beta[2] 5.8 0.0 1.2 3.4 5.0 5.8 6.6 8.1 32546 1
beta[3] 5.1 0.0 1.2 2.7 4.3 5.1 6.0 7.6 2223 1
beta_alpha 2.5 0.1 4.7 -7.4 0.2 2.5 5.0 11.5 1295 1
beta_sigma 7.6 0.1 5.4 2.6 4.5 6.2 9.0 21.0 10012 1
gamma[1] -77.6 0.9 30.9 -140.8 -95.7 -76.5 -58.9 -18.7 1285 1
gamma[2] 39.8 0.3 30.1 -21.8 23.3 39.9 57.3 99.7 9775 1
gamma[3] -20.0 0.5 30.1 -81.6 -38.0 -19.5 -2.3 38.9 3468 1
gamma[4] 38.0 0.2 32.0 -25.7 19.5 37.2 57.1 101.9 20164 1
gamma[5] 6.0 0.3 30.0 -55.6 -11.7 6.3 23.5 64.7 9185 1
gamma_alpha -0.3 0.2 5.1 -9.8 -3.7 -0.2 3.2 9.6 508 1
gamma_sigma 61.5 0.2 27.9 29.5 43.7 54.5 71.7 133.0 21382 1
sigma[1] 19.7 0.1 2.9 14.3 17.8 19.6 21.6 25.9 1166 1
sigma[2] 22.2 0.0 3.5 16.8 19.8 21.7 23.9 30.7 33349 1
sigma[3] 19.9 0.1 3.3 13.9 17.8 19.7 21.9 27.0 3124 1
sigma_alpha 20.4 0.0 3.6 13.7 18.4 20.3 22.4 27.9 5144 1
sigma_sigma 2.8 0.1 3.4 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.6 11.3 3118 1
lp__ -255.8 0.0 4.2 -264.9 -258.4 -255.5 -253.0 -248.3 14719 1
Samples were drawn using NUTS2 at Thu Jun 20 23:06:33 2013.
For each parameter, n_eff is a crude measure of effective sample size,
and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains (at
convergence, Rhat=1).
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