Token Ticker | TGE Date (MM/DD/YYYY) | 24h Performance (From Entry Date; % change) | 7d Performance (From Entry Date; % change) | 30d Performance (From Entry Date; % change) | 60d Performance (From Entry Date; % change) | 90d Performance (From Entry Date; % change) | 120d Performance (From Entry Date; % change) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AEVO | 3/13/2024 | -17.42% | -21.95% | -42.82% | -64.43% | -79.41% | -87.05% |
ANIME | 1/23/2025 | -34.82% | -47.73% | -70.49% | -80.64% | -78.91% | -70.43% |
ARB | 3/23/2023 | -7.45% | 4.94% | 11.32% | -14.51% | -13.30% | -6.31% |
AVAIL | 7/23/2024 | 24.15% | 12.40% | -11.62% | -5.35% | -16.12% | -28.00% |
BERA | 02/06/2025 | -30.34% | -35.50% | -22.09% | -50.04% | -65.43% | -74.33% |
BLAST | 6/26/2024 | -16.58% | -31.52% | -39.74% | -56.50% | -60.61% | -66.48% |
CLOUD | 7/18/2024 | 7.44% | -3.86% | -37.42% | -6.69% | 43.14% | 84.25% |
DBR | 10/17/2024 | -0.75% | -18.36% | -31.47 |
Updated EMV Repository spreadsheet including KERNEL: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1843mEciZzFqXpNtzq6by7Hkt52phbtSdDeeUDCKGQBg/edit?usp=sharing
Table of Updated EMV Repository including KERNEL:
Project | Winner/Loser | Environment Score | Myth Score | Vapor Score | Calibration Data/Notes | Combined Final Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARB | Loser | 3 | 2 | 1 | Already-finished product; constant grant sell-pressure; flat narrative | 28.75 |
FTM | Winner -> Loser | 3 | 4 | 2 | Sonic hype then post-event dump; clear tech keeps Vapor moderate | 52.5 |
GRASS | Winner | 4 | 4 | 3 | AI + DePIN mania; low-float TGE; future unlock wave adds Vapor | 68.75 |
KAITO | Winner | 2 | 4 | 3 | Late-cycle dilution; InfoFi squeeze; utility abstract but linked | 48.75 |
PART A QUALITATIVE REPORT: KERNEL
This qualitative report will analyze the lifetime of downward price action of KERNEL, the token associated with the Kelp defi restaking platform known for its association with Eigenlayer and the broader restaking wave of 2024.
Highlighted Timeframe
Time frame of this KERNEL price analysis: 4/14/2025 - 6/5/2025
Data aggregators and sources used: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/kerneldao/, https://cryptorank.io/price/kernel, https://defillama.com/protocol/kelp, https://defillama.com/protocol/kernel, https://www.tradingview.com/x/QmVaMeJf/
Since the aim of this qualitative report is to analyze the drivers of KERNEL’s prolonged bearish price action right off launch, we will be focusing on the time between its
Spreadsheet link to Master Repository with ETHFI entries updated: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BVQhAxJLCAGkCg0ZcGMa_NzjgxQKxIVQwJhxAYp16Qw/edit?usp=sharing
Updated Master Repository Table with ETHFI entries included:
Report Title | Winner/Loser | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE_ Score | BACKER_SIGNAL_ Score | NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION_ Score | FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE_ Score | FIRST_MOVER_ADVANTAGE_ Score | PRODUCT_MARKET_FIT_ Score | Environment Score | Myth Score | Vapor Score | EMV_Overall | Tag_Composite | Grand_Total_Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARB | Loser | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2.15 | 2.5 | 2.29 |
FTM | Winner -> Loser | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3.1 | 4.25 | 3.56 |
GRASS | Winner | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3.75 | 3.5 | 3.65 |
KAITO | Winne |
Full Updated Tag Schema spreadsheet including ETHFI qualitative report entries spreadsheet link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I_b3TZ9-l-BHba0cVfnKJO-q3tYd_h0iNegqAj2P5bg/edit?usp=sharing
Updated Tagging Schema Repository Table with ETHFI Included:
Report Title | Winner/Loser | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE_ Score | BACKER_SIGNAL_ Score | NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION_ Score | FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE_ Score | FIRST_MOVER_ADVANTAGE_ Score | PRODUCT_MARKET_FIT_ Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARB Qual Report | Loser | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
FTM Qual Report | Winner | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
GRASS Qual Report | Winner | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
KAITO Qual Report | Loser | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Updated EMV Repository spreadsheet including ETHFI: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1843mEciZzFqXpNtzq6by7Hkt52phbtSdDeeUDCKGQBg/edit?usp=sharing
Table of Updated EMV Repository including ETHFI:
Project | Winner/Loser | Environment Score | Myth Score | Vapor Score | Calibration Data/Notes | Combined Final Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARB | Loser | 3 | 2 | 1 | Already-finished product; constant grant sell-pressure; flat narrative | 28.75 |
FTM | Winner -> Loser | 3 | 4 | 2 | Sonic hype then post-event dump; clear tech keeps Vapor moderate | 52.5 |
GRASS | Winner | 4 | 4 | 3 | AI + DePIN mania; low-float TGE; future unlock wave adds Vapor | 68.75 |
KAITO | Winner | 2 | 4 | 3 | Late-cycle dilution; InfoFi squeeze; utility abstract but linked | 48.75 |
PART A QUALITATIVE REPORT: ETHFI
This qualitative report will analyze the lifetime of post-launch spike downward price action of ETHFI (EtherFi), a defi staking platform part of the Eigenlayer Ecosystem.
Highlighted Timeframe
Time frame of this ETHFI price analysis: 3/27/2024 - 4/16/2025
Data aggregators and sources used: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ether-fi-ethfi/, https://cryptorank.io/price/ether-fi, https://defillama.com/protocol/ether.fi, https://www.tradingview.com/x/G2llzi9q/
Since the aim of this qualitative report is to analyze the drivers of ETHFI’s prolonged bearish price action after its 9-day pump to all time high which was sharply rejected, we will be focusing on the time between its all time high (3/27/2024) and its subsequent decline to all ti
Spreadsheet link to Master Repository with FUEL entries updated: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BVQhAxJLCAGkCg0ZcGMa_NzjgxQKxIVQwJhxAYp16Qw/edit?usp=sharing
Updated Master Repository Table with FUEL entries included:
Report Title | Winner/Loser | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE_ Score | BACKER_SIGNAL_ Score | NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION_ Score | FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE_ Score | FIRST_MOVER_ADVANTAGE_ Score | PRODUCT_MARKET_FIT_ Score | Environment Score | Myth Score | Vapor Score | EMV_Overall | Tag_Composite | Grand_Total_Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARB | Loser | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2.15 | 2.5 | 2.29 |
FTM | Winner -> Loser | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3.1 | 4.25 | 3.56 |
GRASS | Winner | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3.75 | 3.5 | 3.65 |
KAITO | Winner |
Full Updated Tag Schema spreadsheet including FUEL qualitative report entries spreadsheet link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I_b3TZ9-l-BHba0cVfnKJO-q3tYd_h0iNegqAj2P5bg/edit?usp=sharing
Updated Tagging Schema Repository Table with FUEL Included:
Report Title | Winner/Loser | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE_ Score | BACKER_SIGNAL_ Score | NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION_ Score | FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE_ Score | FIRST_MOVER_ADVANTAGE_ Score | PRODUCT_MARKET_FIT_ Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARB Qual Report | Loser | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
FTM Qual Report | Winner | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
GRASS Qual Report | Winner | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
KAITO Qual Report | Loser | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Updated EMV Repository spreadsheet including FUEL: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1843mEciZzFqXpNtzq6by7Hkt52phbtSdDeeUDCKGQBg/edit?usp=sharing
Table of Updated EMV Repository including FUEL:
Project | Winner/Loser | Environment Score | Myth Score | Vapor Score | Calibration Data/Notes | Combined Final Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARB | Loser | 3 | 2 | 1 | Already-finished product; constant grant sell-pressure; flat narrative | 28.75 |
FTM | Winner -> Loser | 3 | 4 | 2 | Sonic hype then post-event dump; clear tech keeps Vapor moderate | 52.5 |
GRASS | Winner | 4 | 4 | 3 | AI + DePIN mania; low-float TGE; future unlock wave adds Vapor | 68.75 |
KAITO | Winner | 2 | 4 | 3 | Late-cycle dilution; InfoFi squeeze; utility abstract but linked | 48.75 |