Code for post on the economic performance of democracies and dictatorships through history

regimes and gdp.r

uds <- read.csv("../Data/uds_summary.csv")
pwt <- read.csv("../Data/pwt70_w_country_names.csv")
codes <- read.csv("../Data/codes.csv")
require(countrycode)
require(plyr)
require(ggplot2)
codes$isocode <- countrycode(codes$cowcode,"cown","iso3c")
names(pwt)[1] <- "countryname.pwt"

pwt <- ddply(pwt,.(isocode), transform, cgdpgrowthch = 100*diff(rgdpch)/rgdpch)
pwt <- ddply(pwt,.(isocode), transform, cgdpgrowthl = 100*diff(rgdpl)/rgdpl)

uds$regime <- cut(uds$mean,breaks=3,labels=c("Dictatorship","Hybrid","Democracy"))
uds$regime.2 <- cut(uds$mean,breaks=2,
                    labels=c("More or less non-democratic",
                             "More or less democratic"))

uds <- ddply(uds,.(year,regime),transform,number.of.regimes=length(regime))
uds <- ddply(uds,.(year,regime.2),transform,number.of.regimes.2=length(regime.2))

uds <- merge(uds,codes,all.x=TRUE)
uds.and.pwt <- merge(uds,pwt)
uds.and.pwt <- ddply(uds.and.pwt,.(year, regime), transform, avgpcgdp = mean(rgdpl,na.rm=TRUE))
uds.and.pwt <- ddply(uds.and.pwt,.(year, regime), transform, medianpcgdp = median(rgdpl,na.rm=TRUE))

# for a nice pointrange graph of scores for 2008
uds.2008.table <- subset(uds, year == 2008)

uds.2008 <- ggplot(uds.2008.table,
                   aes(x=country,
                       y=mean,
                       ymin=pct025,
                       ymax=pct975,
                       color=regime)) + geom_pointrange() + coord_flip()

# Distribution of regimes per year

distribution.per.year <- qplot(x=year,
                               fill=regime,
                               data=uds.and.pwt,
                               ylab="Number of countries",
                               binwidth=1)


#per capita GDP growth and regime type per year

growth.per.regime <- qplot(x=year,y=cgdpgrowthch,
                           color=regime,
                           data=uds.and.pwt,
                           stat="summary",
                           fun.y="median",
                           size=number.of.regimes) + geom_smooth() + labs(colour="Regime type",y="Per capita gdp growth",size="Number of countries")


growth.per.regime.2 <- qplot(x=year,y=cgdpgrowthch,
                           color=regime.2,
                           data=uds.and.pwt,
                           stat="summary",
                           fun.y="median",
                           size=number.of.regimes.2) + geom_smooth() + labs(colour="Regime type",y="Per capita gdp growth",size="Number of countries")

growth.per.regime.3 <- qplot(x=year,y=cgdpgrowthch,
                           color=regime,
                           data=uds.and.pwt,
                           stat="summary",
                           fun.y="median",
                           size=avgpcgdp) + geom_smooth() + labs(colour="Regime type",y="Per capita gdp growth",size="Avg per capita gdp")

growth.per.regime.4 <- qplot(x=year,y=cgdpgrowthch,
                             color=regime,
                             data=uds.and.pwt,
                             stat="summary",
                             fun.y="median",
                             size=medianpcgdp) + geom_smooth() + labs(colour="Regime type",y="Per capita gdp growth",size="Median per capita gdp")

#plot of basic relation between democracy and growth
income.and.growth <- qplot(x=mean,y=cgdpgrowthch,data=uds.and.pwt,geom="smooth")
income.and.growth + labs(x="Unified Democracy Score",y="Per capita growth")

#plot per year of the relation between democracy and income

income.per.regime <- qplot(x=year,y=rgdpch,
                             color=regime,
                             data=uds.and.pwt,
                             stat="summary",
                             fun.y="median",
                             size=number.of.regimes) + geom_smooth() + labs(colour="Regime type",y="Per capita gdp",size="Number of countries")

income.per.regime.2 <- qplot(x=year,y=rgdpch,
                             color=regime.2,
                             data=uds.and.pwt,
                             stat="summary",
                             fun.y="median",
                             size=number.of.regimes.2) + geom_smooth() + labs(colour="Regime type",y="Per capita gdp",size="Number of countries")

linmod <- function(df) {
  lm(cgdpgrowthch ~ df$mean + log(rgdpch), data = df)
}
models <- dlply(uds.and.pwt, .(year), linmod)
coefs <- ldply(models,coef)

names(coefs) <- c("year","intercept","uds_mean","log_rgdpch")

democracy.advantage <- qplot(x=year,y=uds_mean,
                             data=coefs,
                             geom=c("smooth","point")) + labs(y="Democracy advantage")

democracy.advantage + geom_hline(y=0,color="red")

linmod.2 <- function(df) {
  lm(cgdpgrowthch ~ df$mean, data = df)
}
models.2 <- dlply(uds.and.pwt, .(year), linmod.2)
coefs.2 <- ldply(models.2,coef)

names(coefs.2) <- c("year","intercept","uds_mean")

democracy.advantage.2 <- qplot(x=year,y=uds_mean,
                             data=coefs.2,
                             geom=c("smooth","point")) + labs(y="Democracy advantage")


linmod.3 <- function(df) {
  lm(cgdpgrowthch ~ df$mean + log(rgdpch), data = df)
}
models.3 <- dlply(uds.and.pwt, .(un_region_name), linmod.3)
coefs.3 <- ldply(models.3,coef)

names(coefs.3) <- c("Region","intercept","uds_mean", "log_gdp")

democracy.advantage.3 <- qplot(x=Region,y=uds_mean,
                               data=coefs.3,
                               geom=c("point")) + labs(y="Democracy advantage") + coord_flip()

democracy.advantage.3 + geom_hline(y=0,colour="red")

linmod.4 <- function(df) {
  lm(cgdpgrowthch ~ df$mean + log(rgdpch), data = df)
}
models.4 <- dlply(uds.and.pwt, .(un_continent_name), linmod.4)
coefs.4 <- ldply(models.4,coef)

names(coefs.4) <- c("Region","intercept","uds_mean", "log_gdp")

democracy.advantage.4 <- qplot(x=Region,y=uds_mean,
                               data=coefs.4,
                               geom=c("point")) + labs(y="Democracy advantage") + coord_flip()

democracy.advantage.4 + geom_hline(y=0,colour="red")