Hi Ari,
I'm wondering if you have any insight into what happened.
I do.
I gave this election case a whole lot of my attention as it was caused by an incident in the northwest district where I cast my vote. Though my insight is only that of an outside observer, I put big chunks of my spare time from the end of 2021-09 until the end of 2021-11 into following this case unfolding. I watched and looked up near every news story on this, skimmed over most of the published documents of the official investigation of the ballot paper committee (isl. Kjörbréfanefnd), and when that reading material was exhausted I occasionally dug up social media discussions and older news, speculations, leads, vague guesses and occasional hypotheses on what actually happened and I found from time to time half-baked accusations on specific people.
I know the police investigated and didn't find any evidence of fraud,
Oh boy, here we go.
The Alþingi parliamentary elections in Iceland 2021 "formally concluded media wise" in the morning of 2021-09-26 when election committees of all districts in the land had issued "final count numbers" in the news media election vigil (isl. kosningavaka fréttastöðva).
RÚV.is - "Þessi taka sæti á Alþingi- konur í meirihluta þingmanna" (2021-09-26T10:49)
This case begins when the "main election committee division in northwest district" (isl. yfirkjörstjórn norðvesturkjördæmis) decides by itself little bit after noon on 2021-09-26 to do a recount. This decision reached the news around 15:00, though the counting had unofficially started much sooner according to a report we'll get to later.
Vísir.is - "Telja öll atkvæði aftur í Norðvesturkjördæmi" (2021-09-26T14:57)
RÚV.is - "Öll atkvæði í Norðvesturkjördæmi talin aftur" (2021-09-26T15:12)
The reason for the recount given to news medias was that very few votes were deciding what candidates would get in as so-called "equalization MP" (isl. jöfnunarþingmaður). It was stated that the decision to do a recount had been taken solely by the main election committee division in northwest district.
The case ignites when the candidate in first place and representative for the Iceland Pirate Party in northwest district, Magnús Davíð Norðdahl, arrives to the Hótel Borgarnes where the northwest district votes had been counted and the recount was in process. When election committees count votes they are required by law to summon representatives from all parliamentary parties involved, and if any fail to show up they are required by law to appoint someone for the task, however with the Pirate Party, the northwest election committee claimed it had been unable to reach some person other than Magnús which they thought was serving as representative for the Pirate Party.
As a result of this, Magnús first heard about the recount in the news. He called the northwest election committee and requested that the recount would not start until he had arrived to serve as inspection representative for the Pirate Party. His request was denied. When Magnús arrived the recount was well on its way and he asked what inspection representatives were present when the votes were unsealed for recount and the recount began. He's then and there informed by the head of northwest election committee, Ingi Tryggvason, that the votes were not sealed between the final count in the morning and the recount that started after noon, but no worries, the votes had been stored safely and surely in a locked room in the hotel. Was the door at the very least sealed? Nope.
The recount finished around 18:00 and oh boy did it cause some changes.
Thing is, this "equalization MP" system works somewhat like this: We have a number of equalization MP seats, these seats are distributed between parliamentary parties based on their over-all-districts voting count. Only parties with over 5% of casted votes landwise are eligible for these equalization seats. These seats are then, in turn, allocated to candidates of the parties who got equalization seats, based on vote number proportion behind each next-in-line candidate for each district. Further explanation of the process is available for reading here: Vísindavefurinn.is - "Hvernig virkar kosningakerfið á Íslandi?" (2017-10-12).
So if a change happens on which party got equalization seat in a given district, this can cause a cascading effect where the remaining equalization seats get shifted between districts, the parties might get the same number of seats, but they're allocated to different candidates.
In this case the allocation of these equalization seats between parties remained unchanged, the above basically happened. Guðmundur Gunnarsson, candidate for Viðreisn, had previously been allocated equalization seat in the northwest district, but after the recount Bergþór Ólason for Miðflokkurinn (e. Middle Party) got the spot instead of Guðmundur. Viðreisn instead got Guðbrandur Einarsson allocated equalization seat in Reykjavík-Suður district (the capital and the surrounding area is split into three voting districts, Reykjavík Norður, Reykjavík Suður and Suðvesturkjördæmi, see althingi.is - "Skipting þingsæta milli kjördæma") and so forth the remaining seats shifted like dominoes, until the number of seats that changed a butt became 5. 5 candidates out, 5 candidates in. This affected the status of 10 candidates!
(If you'd like to work your way down the dominoes then a list of all candidates in the Alþingi 2021 elections might be helpful, it's available here: Stjórnarráðið - "Norðvesturkjördæmi" (2021), direct link to the PDF with the formal statement: landskjor.is - "Auglýsing frá landskjörstjórn um framboð við alþingiskosningar 25. september 2021" (2021-09-14))
This is quite amusing, or sad honestly, let's look at what the vote count changes between "final count" to "recount" in northwest district, that caused these changes, really were:
| Count in morning | Count in evening after recount | difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | 17666 | 17668 | 2 |
| Empty votes | 394 | 382 | -12 |
| Invalid votes | 24 | 35 | 11 |
| Framsókn (B) | 4443 | 4448 | 5 |
| Viðreisn (C) | 1072 | 1063 | -9 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkur (D) | 3887 | 3897 | 10 |
| Flokkur Fólksins (F) | 1513 | 1510 | -3 |
| Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands (J) | 721 | 728 | 7 |
| Miðflokkur (M) | 1283 | 1278 | -5 |
| Frjálslyndi Lýðræðisflokkurinn (O) | 72 | 73 | 1 |
| Píratar (P) | 1082 | 1081 | -1 |
| Samfylking (S) | 1196 | 1195 | -1 |
| Vinstri Græn (V) | 1979 | 1978 | -1 |
(The above table can be found here and there in icelandic news and other online media and social platforms. One source example of this, and it matches other sources I've found (I've also reviewed these numbers from the official numbers), is this news story here: Kjarninn - "Fundargerð yfirkjörstjórnar: Mannleg mistök hörmuð og skekkjan í bunkunum útskýrð" (2021-09-29T19:27).)
Wait what? Seriously? All the columns changed? EVERY SINGLE ONE? EVEN THE VOTES CAST COLUMN?!?? Wow, amazing! (Or sad, if I'm being honest.) The changes that matter are the -9 votes for Viðreisn. These tiny vote changes caused Viðreisn to get a candidate from another district allocated into their equalization seat. None of the other errors caused any changes.
This vastness of errors obviously causes an uproar in the land to say the least.
The next day Karl Gauti Hjaltason, who lost his equalization seat for Miðflokkurinn to the candidate Bergþór Ólason sends indictment on the northwest recount to the police, more precisely the west county police, which is based in Borgarnes.
RÚV.is - "Karl Gauti kærir endurtalningu atkvæða til lögreglu" (2021-09-27T10:57)
That same day, Magnús Davíð Norðdahl, first spot northwest candidate and northwest representative for Píratar Party, informs he's working on a indictment on the elections to the ballot paper committee (isl. Kjörbréfanefnd) which by icelandic law is supposed to act on indictments and formal complaints regarding conducts of elections. (This ballot paper committee is rather interesting by the way, because it's entirely composed of newly elected MPs, and its main purpose is to propose to the parliament whether or not the elections were valid or not, which the newly elected parliament then has a final say on according to icelandic law.)
RÚV.is - "Kærir kosningar í NV-kjördæmi og vill kjósa aftur" (2021-09-27T11:23)
The National Electoral Commission (isl. Landskjörstjórn) wants to know what happened and sends a formal inquiry to the "main election committee division in northwest district", asking for a detailed report on what went on before and during the recount. Later information surfaces that the head of National Electoral Commission and the head of the northwest election committee spoke on phone around noon, a bit before the recount was decided.
RÚV.is - "„Við viljum fá að vita hvað gerðist“" (2027-09-27T16:38)
Ingi Tryggvason, head of the northwest election committee, responds to the formal inquiry from the National Electoral Commission and to some of the overflowing questions from reporters, he assures everyone that the votes were secure and sound, stored in a locked room, no need for any worry. He blames human error (excel input error for the amount of votes cast change) for the vote changes after recount.
Not long after these statements some instagram pictures taken inside this very securely locked room, by the daughter-in-law of the hotel owner, reach the attention of the news medias. It quickly gets deleted but it's spreading through the internet now.
Ingi reiterates his previous statements and belittles the existence of the pictures and claims that if these pictures do in fact exist they might have been taken right before the northwest election committee members were exiting the the room and locking it.
Vísir.is - "Tengdadóttir hótelstjóra eyddi myndum af óinnsigluðum atkvæðum" (2021-09-28T13:25)
mbl.is - "Innsláttarvilla hafi ráðið úrslitum í norðvestur" (2021-09-28T15:38)
RÚV.is - "Telur sig hafa verið á staðnum þegar myndir voru teknar" (2021-09-28T16:10)
RÚV.is - "Grundvallaratriði að unnt sé að treysta kosningum" (2021-09-28T19:10)
Meanwhile, chairmen of the previously governing parliamentary parties are discussing opening constitutional dialogue and do not bother with any statements regarding this northwest case. And it's like suddenly the icelandic nation wakes up and realizes, oh yeah, the parliament itself decides if parliamentary elections were legally carried out or not. Or as we've interpreted our constitution for decades, newly elected parliament decides if their own elections were legal or not. (This was one of many issues with our constitution that were discussed in the 2010–2013 Icelandic constitutional reform, the elections for this new constitution were judged illegal in court. Parliamentary elections however cannot be taken to court, the parliament has a final say according to law.)
Kristín Edwald, head of the National Electoral Commission, declares that the National Electoral Commission cannot conclude that treatment of electoral data in northwest district was adequate. She has nothing more to say about that and refuses to answer any further questions from news medias, the National Electoral Commission then proceeds to give out MP-appointment papers based on the recount results and sends the case forward to Alþingi.
RÚV.is - "Ekki staðfest að meðferð kjörgagna var fullnægjandi" (2021-09-28T18:51)
At this point news coverage of this case starts to revolve around Ingi Tryggvason and his statements which seem to constantly contradict facts that surface in the case. One such fact being votes were handled before everyone in the northwest election committee had arrived back to Hótel Borgarnes at noon 2021-09-26, and long before any inspection party representative arrived. Another is that the key cylinder for the "very secure locked door" was not changed so there really was no way to tell how many people had key access for it. (And, I kid you not, later it's exposed that there is another entrance into the room for hotel employees, that one being a slide door that isn't even lockable!)
Ingi has worked in the local government level in Borgarnes/Borgarbyggð for decades, and since summer 2020 he's been appointed a district judge. Old news articles of conflicts of interest related to local government level work handled by Ingi start to resurface. One such case is about real estate taxes debt collection that quickly turned into auction process where the owners lost their property, and what do you know, Ingi also does some work in the real estate business, where he bought this real estate and sold it forward. Also, Ingi completely outdoes himself in terrible public relations when he states when asked why they didn't seal the votes in the morning of 2021-09-26 that this has been the general practice of things in the district for many years and many elections. Yikes! The frell? How does he think that makes things any better? He also downplayed the value of sealing things in general, claiming seals being generally useless and completely not needed. He also answers the question if he or the main election committee division in northwest district broke laws with the question "is doing mistakes illegal?". Just to iterate, this man has been a lawyer for decades and an appointed district judge for over a year.
Kjarninn - "Orðin hans Inga frá A til Ö – „Af því að ég veit það“" (2021-09-29T13:00)
It comes to light that couple of people were for couple of times alone in the room with the votes, Ingi being one of them, having arrived half hour earlier than everyone else in the northwest election committee. This gets confirmed by security cameras of the hotel, that unfortunately only cover the outside entrance to the room. People start to realise how oh so very serious this case is, the validity of the election is at risk, discussions start forming on what options are possible to resolve the case. People within the previously governing parliamentary parties seem to be starting to wake up from their election victory high and realise how serious the whole thing is. Numerous political scientists (isl. stjórnmálafræðingar) start publishing their view on the matter, they all agree that what has happened is really bad, but they don't agree on how serious it is, some say it invalidates the elections while others state that what has happened is "not serious enough" to invalidate the elections.
Vísir.is - "„Gersamlega óleysanlegur stjórnskipulegur vandi“" (2021-09-29T10:33)
RÚV.is - "Kemur til greina að kalla Alþingi fyrr saman" (2021-09-29T19:31)
Fréttablaðið.is - "Síðari talningin hljóti að standast" (2021-09-30T18:55)
Fréttablaðið.is - "Um ógildingu kosninga" (2021-10-01T06:00)
Féttablaðið.is - "Er ekki bara best að vera þokkalega sáttur?" (2021-10-01T06:00)
Fréttablaðið.is - "Brotin leiði ekki til ógildingar kosninga" (2021-10-01T07:56)
Kjarninn.is - "Er ekki bara best að vita hvort þingmenn séu réttkjörnir?" (2021-10-02T08:00)
But is there an issue at all if the equalization MP seats didn't change between parties?
This was a popular argument made by political scientists who claimed what had happened wasn't serious enough. Implying this meant there hadn't been any change to the results at all. But this argument is wrong, and the funny thing is, we actually got a fresh case study example on why this argument is wrong, because couple of days later this happened. Birgir Þórarinsson, newly elected MP for Miðflokkurinn, decided to leave his party and join the Independence Party (isl. Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn) only couple of days after the elections. And he's free to do so, MPs elected in Iceland are free to follow their own convictions according to the icelandic constitution. So it clearly matters what candidates get MP seats. Implying there were no real result changes just because the numbers of equalization MP seats between the parties didn't change is just flat out nonsense. This case of MP moving between parties is not uncommon in icelandic political history, though it happening this soon after elections is completely unheard of and it raised quite some anger through the general public of Iceland. Birgir Þórarinsson stated that his reason for leaving Miðflokkurinn was a 3 years old case known as Klausturgate (isl. Klaustur málið) in combination with issues he had with the election campaign of Miðflokkurinn up to these elections. But come on, if that was the case why didn't he step aside then and there? This is incredibly low act to commit, and I say that as a person not very fond of Miðflokkurinn, precisely because of Klausturgate among other things.
RÚV.is - "Klaustursmálið ýtti Birgi úr Miðflokknum" (2021-10-09T04:38)
Let's zoom out for a moment and consider the situation. What happened that is such a big deal?
Secret ballot elections is the standard electoral system used for country-wide elections in todays democracies. This system is praised for providing political privacy of voters and with that privacy forestalling attempts to influence the voter by intimidation, blackmailing, and potential vote buying. However, there is a caveat, after a voter casts his vote it is impossible for him/her to verify if his/her vote made it to the elections results. Voters have to put their trust in that their cast votes are treated with outmost respect, inspection representatives of opposing electoral parties always being present when votes are being handled to ensure votes are not being changed or handled unfairly in any other conceivable manner. Voters also have to trust that in between being handled, votes are kept sealed with unique registered seals in a way that makes it impossible to access the votes without it showing obvious traces on the seal. A chain of trust, if you will. And this chain of trust, both inspection representatives present during votes handling and their confirmations of vote seals being intact and in agreement with what was registered has to be logged and made publicly available to voters for review.
Voters in democracies of the present day seem to generally take the above mentioned chain of trust for granted and tend to not think about it too much. For example the average voter looking up logs of representatives present during counting and checking validity of seals is generally unheard of.
But in this very case, the chain of trust was broken. Multiple times, while stored in allegedly (but completely not) securely locked hotelroom, the votes were unsealed and accessible to individuals without oversight of any kind. So we as voters have no chain of trust guarantee to rely on, meaning we as voters have no guarantee for the votes not being changed or handled unfairly in any other conceivable manner.
Right, but what exactly is "serious enough" to invalidate elections?
In a sane world? Breaking the chain of trust on votes would be enough. Which when you think about it makes you realise how incredibly fragile secret ballots are. All that's needed to cause some electoral chaos is attacking the votes, breaking the chain of trust in one way or another. At a point this fragility actually became a real topic of discussion, and attempt was made to have it make a point of sorts for having the count before recount stand as final vote results, which in all fairness makes some sense, the previous count had unbroken chain of trust, but I'd argue this specific point does not crown the former count as the best option available.
In the real world? Depends on the current laws in a given country, and how sane and immune these very laws are to the twists and bends of interpretation, and even if that immunity is good, people seem to get away with some loophole nonsense that shouldn't be tolerated at all.
Let's take the icelandic law in this specific case for example, the laws in effect during last election contained the following:
104. gr.
Að talningu lokinni skal loka umslögum með ágreiningsseðlum með innsigli yfirkjörstjórnar og eiga umboðsmenn lista rétt á að setja einnig fyrir þau innsigli sín. Yfirkjörstjórn sendir [ráðuneytinu] 1) eftirrit af gerðabók sinni viðvíkjandi kosningunni ásamt ágreiningsseðlunum sem [ráðuneytið] 1) leggur fyrir Alþingi í þingbyrjun með sömu ummerkjum sem það tók við þeim.
Þá skal yfirkjörstjórn setja alla notaða kjörseðla undir innsigli og skal gildum og ógildum kjörseðlum haldið sér. Kjörseðlana skal geyma þar til Alþingi hefur úrskurðað um gildi kosninganna, sbr. 120. gr., enda sé þeirra eigi þörf vegna kæru sem beint hefur verið til lögreglustjóra. Að því búnu skal eyða kjörseðlunum og skrá yfirlýsingu um það í gerðabók yfirkjörstjórnar.
Yfirkjörstjórn skal búa um allar kjörskrár í innsigluðum umbúðum og senda [ráðuneytinu] 1) sem geymir þær í eitt ár, en að því búnu skal eyða þeim.
Alþingi.is - "Lög um kosningar til Alþingis (2000/24)" (version 151c)
(note: new election laws took effect on 2022-01-01, see Alþingi.is - "Kosningalög (2021/112)" (version 151c))
The above icelandic law text roughly translates to the following:
Article 104
When counting has been finished all votes of disputed validity shall be sealed in a specific envelope by the main election committee and representatives present have the right to put on their seals as well. The main election committee sends [the ministry] 1) copy of their record book regarding the election along with votes of disputed validity that [the ministry] 1) submits to Alþingi at beginning of parliament with the same traces it received them.
Then the main election committee shall put all used votes under seal, valid and invalid votes kept seperately. The votes are to be stored until Alþingi has ruled on the validity of the elections, as stated in article 120, provided that they are not needed due to indictment that has been addressed to the Chief of Police. After that is done all other votes are to be destroyed and note of that logged in the record book of the main election committee.
The main election committee shall package all electoral registers in sealed packaging and send to [the ministry] 1) which keeps them for one year, after which they shall be destroyed.
Wait, why did the main election committee division in northwest district not seal all used votes in the morning of 2021-09-26 after the counting was over? Weren't they required by law to do so?
Ingi Tryggvason explained it like so, they hadn't finished the counting process, they hadn't "formally" declared the end of the "counting meeting", they decided that morning to "postpone" the counting meeting, until after noon so everyone could go home and have a few hours rest before coming back to Hótel Borgarnes to finish up and formally end the counting.
Is a "postpone" of ending vote counting mentioned in the law?
Nope. It is not. It is quite literally some loophole nonsense explanation that shouldn't be tolerated at all. But still nothing has happened to indicate that the main election committee will be punished for this violation of the law. Though it is worth mentioning that the indictment to the police by Karl Gauti Hjaltason is still ongoing as no member of the main election committee division in northwest district agreed to accept settlement offered by the police and pay some small fine of about 150k ISK (around 1200 USD) and be done with this law violation case. It is worth noting that the police did never publicly state what law violation they were basing the settlement fine on. Another indictment was also submitted to the police nearing the end of 2021-11, that one was submitted by Jón Þór Ólafsson, former MP for the Píratar party and his indictment targeted Ingi Tryggvason specifically for his role in this case.
Fréttablaðið.is - "Styttist í ákærur á hendur yfirkjörstjórn" (2022-01-27T05:00)
The laws "Lög um kosningar til Alþingis (2000/24)" also contain the following:
117. gr.
Það [eru] kosningaspjöll [..] að rangfæra atkvæðagreiðslu, hvort heldur er með því að eyðileggja eða breyta atkvæði sem greitt hefur verið, eða á annan hátt.
Roughly translates to:
Article 117
It [is] election fraud [..] to misrepresent voting, whether by destroying or changing a vote that has been cast, or otherwise.
In a sane world the act of breaking the chain of trust for cast votes would be considered equivalent to destroying those votes. However, what exactly destroys votes is unfortunately not directly specified in icelandic law.
Kjarninn.is - "„Það er búið að eyðileggja atkvæðin í þessu kjördæmi“" (2021-10-17T12:16)
Let's consider the options available for resolving the case:
| Option | Pros | Cons | My personal opinion |
|---|---|---|---|
| have the northwest recount be valid | least hassle short term | broken chain of trust for all cast votes in northwest district, possibility of direct election fraud: observing the outcome and then manipulating it in recount to get one candidate in instead of another | worst option by a longshot |
| have the previous "final" count be valid | not so much hassle short term, direct election fraud not possible like in the recount | impossible to verify outcome as votes have been spoiled, conducted by a main election committee that has broken trust handed to them and lost its trust from voters | far better option than the recount, but still not a great option |
| vote again in northwest district only | icelandic law provides this as a possibility, meets criticism of people in other districts not wanting to vote again as their voting was legal (yeah, that was a thing) | doing a revote would of course be considerable work, major difference in premise for voters in northwest district for casting their vote versus voters in other districts | actually, this option being legally viable I find strange, though being a voter in northwest district I'm biast and I find this option of course to be better than both previous two |
| vote again in all the land | the most democratic option | doing a revote in all the land would of course be lots of work, most hassle short term | this is the way |
(The above personal opinions of mine I voiced in one of my feedback replies to the ballot paper committee (isl. Kjörbréfanefnd), see: https://www.althingi.is/altext/erindi/152/152-111.pdf, it's one of many published documents of the official investigation of the ballot paper committee mentioned and linked earlier.)
Okay, let's refocus on the quote I'm replying to with this wall of text:
I know the police investigated and didn't find any evidence of fraud,
Thing is, finding concrete no-doubt-about-it evidence of election fraud in a secret ballot is near impossible. Votes can't be backtracked to their voter to check if they've been tampered with, so unless you literally catch someone in the act or the act is recorded on tape or something it's pretty much impossible to prove anything.
But boy do we have hints scattered around this case indicating that election fraud was indeed committed, let's list a couple of them shall we?
Hint 1: Creating a habit or general practice of doing things that gives people the option of being alone with unsealed votes, and this is not the first time this is the case, no, this has been going on for years, in multiple past elections this has been the case.
Hint 2: The chain of trust for cast votes in northwest was broken, it's known that specific people got alone time with unsealed votes, this is not just a possibility, this is a fact. Ingi Tryggvason being one, he was going through the votes when a second member of the main election committee arrived around noon 2021-09-26 according to report.
Hint 3: The election results changed for 10 candidates, 5 lost their seat, 5 gained a seat in their place.
Hint 4: This one is juicy. Remember that in northwest district it got shifted that Viðreisn didn't get equalization MP seat in northwest district and instead Miðflokkurinn got it? Do you remember the 9 votes that Viðreisn lost in the recount that caused all this? What if I told you all of these 9 "incorrectly classified" votes were in the first deck of 50 votes that Ingi Tryggvason took up and checked in the beginning of the recount? This is a fact and it's stated in the Report of the preparatory ballot paper committee (isl. Greinargerð undirbúningskjörbréfanefndar), note that the preparatory ballot paper committee later became without any member changes the ballot paper committee. Here's the very text where this is stated:
Í greinargerð yfirkjörstjórnar til landskjörstjórnar, dags. 28. september 2021, kemur fram að atkvæði hafi verið talin í 50 atkvæða bunka.
Á fundum nefndarinnar með yfirkjörstjórn var spurt nánar út í athugun á C-lista atkvæðum. Þrír fulltrúar í yfirkjörstjórn sögðu að yfirkjörstjórn hafi öll verið saman komin þegar ákveðið var að skoða atkvæði C-lista. Einn fulltrúi taldi að fjórir fulltrúar yfirkjörstjórnar hafi verið komnir í talningarsal þegar atkvæðin voru skoðuð. Annar fulltrúi sagði að hann hafi ekki verið kominn þegar atkvæðin voru skoðuð.
Oddviti sagði að rangt flokkuð atkvæði hefðu fundist í fyrsta bunkanum sem hann tók. Einn fulltrúi yfirkjörstjórnar staðfesti þetta í samtali við nefndina. Annar fulltrúi í yfirkjörstjórn sagði í samtali við nefndina að þegar gerð var athugun á C-lista atkvæðunum hafi komið strax í ljós að það væri flokkunarvilla í C-lista kassanum. Viðkomandi sagði að bunkinn með rangt flokkuðum atkvæðum hafi legið ofarlega í kassanum og að yfirkjörstjórn hafi farið saman í gegnum atkvæðin, þ.e. þau hafi hvert og eitt tekið bunka. Þriðji fulltrúinn í yfirkjörstjórn, sem var viðstaddur þegar bunkar úr C-lista kassanum voru teknir upp, segir að villan hafi fundist í efstu bunkunum. Fjórði fulltrúi yfirkjörstjórnar sagði að kassi með C-atkvæðum hafi verið upp á borði þegar hann kom og hann hafi ekki verið viðstaddur þegar rangt flokkuðu atkvæðin í C-lista bunka fundust, en hann minnti að þessi níu atkvæði sem C-listi fór niður um, hafi verið í fyrsta bunkanum.
Translates roughly to:
In the report of the main election committee to the National Electoral Commission, dated September 28, 2021, states that the votes were counted in 50 vote decks.
At the committee's meetings with the main election committee, further consideration was given to the examination of the C-list votes. Three members of the main election committee said that the main election committee had all met when it was decided to look at the C-list votes. One representative believed that four representatives of the main election committee had been in the counting hall when the votes were examined. Another representative said he was not present when the votes were examined.
Head of the main election committee said that incorrectly classified votes had been found in the first deck he took. One representative of the main election committee confirmed this in a conversation with the committee. Another member of the main election committee said in an interview with the committee that when an examination of the C-list votes was made, it was immediately revealed that there was a classification error in the C-list box. The person in question said that the deck of incorrectly classified votes had been high on the ballot box and that the main election committee had gone through the ballots together, ie. they each took a deck. The third member of the main election committee, who was present when decks from the C-list box were picked up, says that the error was found in the top decks. A fourth representative of the main election committee said that a box with C-votes was on the table when he arrived and that he was not present when the incorrectly classified votes in the C-list deck were found, but he belived he recalled that the nine votes that C-list went down by, had been in the first deck.
This hint is just lying there, in broad daylight, black text on white paper. Most of us who submitted an indictment on the elections noted how absurd and not likely and not probable this was to happen, that all the 9 votes that caused this mess appeared in the damn first 50 votes deck picked up by Ingi Tryggvason in the beginning of the recount. No response, no feedback, no coverage. This highly impropable coincidence was just silenced, muted, not mentioned, not spoken about. And yet, it just lies there, in broad daylight, black text on white paper.
Hint 5: When reading the Report of the preparatory ballot paper committee it becomes apparent that the decision within the main election committee to do a recount was entirely set off by Ingi Tryggvason.
Hint 6: In the recount news statement made by the main election committee after noon 2021-09-26 it was heavily stated that changes might happen. How and why were they so sure of that?
Hint 7: This one is perhaps a nitpick, but a hint it is none the less. Bergþór Ólason is the only MP of the 5 that got in after the recount to vote with validity of the elections, the other 4 MPs abstained.
Hint 8: Alleged but unadressed conflict of interest in past local government level work by Ingi Tryggvason.
Hint 9: This one is perhaps stretching it, but I'm leaving it in here regardless. Alleged ties between Ingi Tryggvason and Bergþór Ólason. Not much public info to go on but Bergþór has deep roots in Borgarnes. Bergþórs father was for a time mayor in Borgarnes and they have ties to the construction company that expanded the housing of Hótel Borgarnes, he and Bergþór owned it for a time though that was years later, though they had ties to the company before owning it. Frankly, considering Ingi's "conflict of interest" history, a simple "you scratch my back I scratch yours" kind of deal might even be a possibility worth considering. But again, all this is speculation and not much public information to go to on besides the above.
Let's refocus once more:
I know the police investigated and didn't find any evidence of fraud,
The police stated they didn't find any "direct" evidence of election fraud, and frankly, finding direct evidence of election fraud in secret ballot elections is near impossible, which again is why the chain of trust is so important. But, oh boy, are there hints, and some of these hints are pretty darn alarming. And as I mentioned earlier, the police offered the members of the main election committee a settlement, pay a fine (150k ISK for most, 250k ISK for Ingi, very cheap dodge for violating election laws if you ask me) and be done with it, they all refused for some reason, the case is still ongoing, in limbo, perhaps waiting for a time where icelanders have mostly forgot about the whole thing, so it can be safely dismissed without public uproar.
Fréttablaðið.is - "Styttist í ákærur á hendur yfirkjörstjórn" (2022-01-27T05:00)
Other things that were alarming were opinion polls that were both weirdly structured and weirdly presented. Below two links are example on one such poll.
RÚV.is - "Ólíkar skoðanir á lausn í Norðvesturkjördæmi" (2021-10-14T22:13)
Gallup.is - "Skiptar skoðanir um lausn í Norðvesturkjördæmi" (2021-08-25)
It's also weird how long it took from news medias covering this particular poll and supplementary material being made publicly available by Gallup.
There were also polls on how voting would go if a revote would happen and in most of those polls it was predicted that the Flokkur Fólksins party would lose considerate electoral support.
Inga Sæland, the chairman of Flokkur Fólksins party, was in the ballot paper committee and she was the first one in there to publicly state her opinion on the case. Her opinion? No data had come forth that indicated the recount shouldn't stand, and that a revote was not necessary.
RÚV.is - "Hallast að því að seinni talningin í Norðvestur gildi" (2021-11-16T21:38)
mbl.is - "Segir enga ástæðu til þess að kjósa aftur" (2021-11-17T13:45)
Following this, Björn Leví Gunnarsson who was in the ballot paper committee as representative for the Píratar party stated that this indeed seemed to be the opinion of the majority of the ballot paper committee.
This came as a shock to some, but to us who had been following the case, we had seen it coming for weeks, as the previously governing parliamentary parties had continued their open constitutional dialogue, which was clear indication on what was brewing behind the scenes.
mbl.is - "„Við sjáum alveg til lands í þessu samtali“" (2021-10-29T19:27)
Vísir.is - "Kynning ríkisstjórnar gæti dregist um eina til þrjár vikur" (2021-11-10T11:55)
Couple of days later it became apparent that the option of having the previous final count be valid where at least the chain of trust was unbroken had been ruled out by everyone except for one in the ballot paper committee. The ballot paper committee released a statement which all members except for one supported, where it was asserted that the only viable options were having the recount be valid or to vote again in the northwest district. The other two options being diminished by this statement. This was really bad as the general public of Iceland seemed to generally not like the "revote in only one district" option, and frankly, I didn't blame anyone for having that opinion. I just didn't want my one least likable option, the worst option, to become the option chosen.
Kjarninn.is - "Allir nefndarmenn sammála um að „fyrri talning“ geti ekki gilt" (2021-11-23T18:59)
And finally after a long painful prelude, at 2021-11-25 it happened. The newly elected Alþingi came together. There were discussions held the whole day, and the whole evening. I went downtown to Austurvöllur around 18:30, there was nobody there, I went to one of the bars in the vicinity and bought a beer and listened to the media broadcast of the discussions in my phone, I went back to Austurvöllur in front of Alþingishúsið around 20:30, there was nobody there, I kept listening to the discussions outside in front of the house of Alþingi, it was somewhat painful to listen to but I lasted through it all, even the statement made by Bergþór Ólason, I listened until the discussions ended at 21:27 and the dreaded voting began. Alþingi did in fact after the days discussions end up voting on all four options, but the recount option, the worst possible option, was chosen regardless, and the deed had been done. A stain on the Saga of Democracy in Iceland. Alþingi had decided that their illegal elections were not illegal at all. Alþingi had declared their illegal elections legal. May every MP that played a part in that decision have shame for it. May they be judged by history.
Kjarninn - "Öll kjörbréfin 63 staðfest af Alþingi" (2021-11-25T21:34)
This case will most likely be sent to the European Court of Human Rights. If ECHR recognises the Iceland parliament elections 2021 as illegal then maybe we get those responsible for declaring the elections legal to take responsibility and get their asses out of parliament. Though I don't really have high hopes, even if ECHR declares the elections illegal or declares human rights broken in some way or form. For that to happen the general public of Iceland has to speak up! It hasn't so far.